What happened to Jakob Ingebgrigtsen?
Ingebrigtsen didn’t run a bad race tonight, he just got beat by 3 men who were better
By Robert Johnson
PARIS — After tonight’s loss in the men’s 1500 of the 2024 Paris Olympics, Jakob Ingebrigtsen has now lost all four global 1500 championships that he’s run since winning the 2021 Olympics — 2022 World Indoors, 2022 and 2023 World Outdoors, and now the 2024 Olympics. Moving forward, it would be foolish to expect him to win a global final if he tries to front-run it.
As great as Jakob is on the circuit in rabbited races, it’s extremely hard to front-run and win a global 1500 title. Yes, tonight’s first lap (54.9) may have been a tiny bit fast, but the reality is Jakob did not run poorly tonight in the Stade de France. Without the help of a rabbit, while having to do ALL of the work himself, he ran 3:28.24 — just 1.51 seconds slower than what he ran in Monaco on July 12. Considering that a rabbit might be worth a second per lap, it can easily be argued this was a better run from a performance standpoint than when he ran his personal best of 3:26.73 in Monaco 3.5 weeks ago.
The difference is that three men tonight were even better than Ingebrigtsen (Cole Hocker won in 3:27.65, Josh Kerr was second in 3:27.79, and Yared Nuguse was third in 3:27.80), in part because Ingebrigtsen served as a near-perfect rabbit for them. Coming into this race, Timothy Cheruiyot was #2 on the world list at 3:28.71 but Josh Kerr should have been considered to be the world #2 at 3:28.61 if you converted his 3:45 mile from the Pre Classic to a 1500. Tonight, it took 3:27.80 to medal. Cole Hocker won by closing his final 300 in 39.7, which according to research compiled by LetsRun visitor Raphael Miranda appears very likely to be the fastest close in history in a sub-3:29 performance.
In the end, despite leading 1425 meters of the race, Ingebrigtsen ended up just 0.59 off of gold. If a rabbit isn’t worth at least one second in the 1500, then Diamond League meets wouldn’t be hiring them.
There is no doubt that Jakob ran better tonight than he did when he won gold in Tokyo three years ago as well. While front-running 1425 of the 1500 meters tonight, he ran 3:28.24 whereas in Tokyo he led for less than a full lap and ran .08 slower — 3:28.32. Yet because the competition was better tonight, he got 4th as compared to 1st three years ago.
Options moving forward
If Jakob wants to return to the top of the podium in the 1500, here are his options.
1) Change nothing and continue to do exactly what he’s been doing
Trying to front-run hasn’t worked in his last four global finals, but Jakob was sick for two of them. If he executes everything perfectly with a slower first lap, maybe he pulls it off, especially if some of the other top guys are off their games just a tiny bit.
2) Continue trying to run for the lead but run in a way so that the other guys have to run extra distance/waste energy
Let’s call this the Nick Willis strategy. The two-time Olympic 1500 medallist recently outlined on YouTube how he thought Jakob should try to lead. Willis wants Jakob to lead in a way so that the guys behind him are jostling for position and/or running extra gound. So grab the lead, slow it down a bit and let everyone else waste their energy, which is what happened when Matthew Centrowitz won gold in Rio in 2016.
3) Just roll the dice and refuse to lead
The general consensus is Jakob doesn’t have the speed to just let a 1500 go tactical. But the reality is Yared Nuguse and several others appear to be in the same boat. It’s a classic case of “prisoner’s dilemma.” If Jakob hadn’t led today, Yared Nuguse or one of the Kenyans probably would have taken it and made it somewhat honest. Then Jakob could try to take the second half. In fact, Nuguse’s coach Dathan Ritzenhein told us that Yared was prepared to lead portions of the race if it wasn’t fast enough.
Regardless of what strategy Jakob employs in his next global 1500 final, he 100% needs to make sure to do one thing before then — practice running big races without rabbits. Yes, Jakob regularly runs the European championships without rabbits, but most of the top guys aren’t there. As we saw tonight, Jakob is good enough that he can lead and beat all but three men on the planet in an unrabbitted 1500. Jakob needs to commit to a Diamond League race on the condition that they don’t hire rabbits — I’m sure the Oslo DL would be happy to accommodate this request. If they don’t, Michael Johnson’s Grand Slam Track won’t have rabbits so he should sign up for that. But it would help him immensely to get to practice a different strategy before seeing what happens in the Tokyo World Championship final next September.
Talk about Ingebrigtsen’s surprising 4th-place finish on our world-famous fan forum/messageboard:
- COLE MF HOCKER!!!!!!!
- Olympics Aug 6 Evening Session Live Thread
- Slow Race – Jakob gets outkicked; Fast Race – Jakob gets outkicked
- How does a 3.30 guy outkick a 3.26 guy in a 3.27 race?
- Jakob won’t medal in the 1500m at the Olympics What a prediction!
- Hocker is the best US 1500 runner of all time
- Hocker tries to pass Jakob, gets cut off, Jakob moves slightly outside to try to move Kerr, gives Hocker room to pass for the W!
- LetsRun Crashed!! We had to turn on a queue for about one minute to “let the server breathe.”
- Kerr only lost to Hocker because Jakob cut Kerr off in the final 100m…
- Today Cole Hocker becomes a 3:27 man
- 2 hours until the greatest race of our lifetime
