WTW: Ingebrigtsen Runs 3:26 – Should Kerr Be Worried? Femke Bol 50.95 and NCAA Also-Rans Impress In Europe

Each week, we try to make the sport more fun to follow by putting the prior week’s action in perspective for you. If you missed our extensive coverage of the Monaco DL on Friday where Jess Hull broke the 2000m WR, catch up here now as we don’t like to repeat ourselves too much.

We broke down Monaco in great detail in our Supporters Club podcast immediately after the meet. If you want the latest in track and field analysis join the Supporters Club today.

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Stat of the Week I

Ingebgigtsen is back from his injury and faster than ever

3:26.85 – Jakob Ingebrigtsen‘s new European 1500m record time that he ran in Monaco on Friday;.

3:28.61* – Josh Kerr‘s converted 1500m pb, coming from the 3:45.34 mile he at the Prefontaine Classic in May (Kerr’s actual pb is the 3:29.05 he ran for Olympic bronze in 2021).

1.76 – gap between seasonal bests between Kerr and Ingebrigtsen in the 1500 in 2024.

2.50 – gap in seconds between seasonal bests between Kerr and Ingebrigtsen in the 1500 prior to Worlds in 2023.

I present these stats only to say that while it was great to see Jakob Ingebrigtsen better than ever in the 1500 on Monaco, his PB didn’t change the way we are breaking down the Olympic 1500. As Weldon Johnson said on the Friday’s Supporters Club Track Talk podcast, a world record in the 1500, may not have changed it.

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The reality is history has shown it’s hard to win the 1500 by setting a pace at the front. In six of the last eight global 1500 finals, someone has tried to win by leading a majority of the race. On five of those occasions, they were run down: Cheruiyot at the ’17 Worlds and ’21 Olympics, and Ingebrigtsen at the ’22 World Indoors, ’22 Worlds and ’23 Worlds. Only Cheruiyot at the ’19 Worlds was successfully able to win from the front.

Another thing that Kerr should feel confident about is that he and Danny Mackey have an incredible track record of peaking when it matters most. Kerr has run his seasonal best in the 1500 final in each of the last 4 global championships, dating all the way back to 2019.

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Stat of the Week II

0.30 – Gap between Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone and Femke Bol in the 400 hurdles entering worlds this year (50.62 vs 50.92).
0.86 – Gap between Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone and Femke Bol in the 400 hurdles entering worlds in 2022 (51.41 to 52.27).
0.52 – Gap between Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone and Dalilah Muhammad in the 400 hurdles entering the 2021 Olympics (51.90 vs 52.42)

On Sunday, Bol became just the second woman to break 51 flat for the women’s 400 hurdles, running 50.95. The bad news for Bol is that McLaughlin-Levrone like Kerr has a great track record of running better than ever in global championships as she has run a PB in all three of her global finals (2019, 2021, 2022). Bol, herself, has a pretty good global finals record. She PRd by 0.34 in 2021, equaled her pb in 2022 ran 0.25 slower than her pb last year. The other thing going against Bol is she ran her 50.92 at the famed La Chaux de Founds track in Switzerland which sits at just under 1000m of altitude and is known for fast times because of the the thin air.

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Stat of the Week III

16 – number of sub-1:43 performances run so far in 2024 in the men’s 800 after Monaco where for the second time in 5 days a record 6 guys did it in one race (before Paris the record was 5 from the 2012 Olympic final where American Nick Symmonds was 5th in 1:42.95).
12 – previous record number of sub-1:43 performances in any year (1996).
10 – number of different men who have broken 1:43 this year, a new record.
6 – previous most number of different men to break 1:43 in a given year (2012).

The men’s 800 in Monaco, just like it was in Paris 5 days earlier, was incredibly good. Once again 6 men broke 1:43, once again Algeria’s Djamel Sedjati won in 1:41 – breaking David Rudisha‘s record of quickest time between 1:41 clockings (Rudisha did it 7 days apart in 2012) – and once again Sweden’s Andreas Kramer was not one of those six men, but once again his 7th place finish gave him a new national record (1:43.66 in Paris, 1:43.13 in Monaco)

*Stats 1996-2024 via tilastopaja.eu and before 1995 from alltime-athletics.com.

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Rin Kubo makes history

Thumbs up to 16-year-old Rin Kubo of Japan. On June 30th, she won the Japanese nationals in the 800 in a 2:03.13 pb. But winning the Japanese nationals in the 800 isn’t all that impressive as no one else in the country has broken 2:03.64 this year.

But Kubo was just getting started. On Friday, Kubo, who ran 2:08.62 last year, split 2:01.9 after going out in 56.8 as her Higashi Osaka Keiai team broke the Japanese HS record in the 4 x 800 by running 8:33.77.

Two days later, on Sunday, Kubo became the first Japanese woman to break 2:00 for 800 as she destroyed Miho Sugimori’s national record of 2:00.45 which had stood since 2005 by running 1:59.93.

Watch if for yourself.

Now, the meet was a low-key affair that wasn’t registered on the WA calendar so while the Japanese will officially recognize it as a historic new record, World Athletics will not.

• 16-Year-Old Rin Kubo Becomes First Japanese Woman To Break 2:00 For 800m
• 16-Year-Old Japan 800m Champ Rin Kubo Leads Girls’ 4x800m To High School National Record (8:33.77)She split 2:01.9 and her teammates’ splits were 2:07.4, 2:11.2 and 2:13.1.

PS. If you are into thinking about various countries and sexes are good at certain events, you might enjoy this messageboard thread: Any theories as to why Japanese female sprinters are much worse than the male sprinters? 0 entrants vs full team for Paris.

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If at first you don’t succeed, try, try, try, try again

Thumbs up to Josh Hoey.

Josh Hoey at Olympic Trials (Kevin Morris photo)

Rather than sulk after finishing 4th at the Olympic Trials, the 24-year-old just kept on racing and his spectacular 2024 campaign got even more spectacular.

At the Flanders Cup on Saturday, he improved on the 1:44.20 he ran in the Trails final as he won in yet another pb – 1:43.80 this time. It was his 4th PB of the year.

Talk about perseverance. The 24-year-old , who turned pro in 2018 after running 1:47.67 in high school, had done next to nothing since then. His pb coming into the year was just 1:47.36 and he only ran 1:48.50 last year. But he’s been totally transformed this year under the tutelage of Justin Rinaldi and has gone from one of the biggest high school flops to a legitimate pro.

Last year, Hoey was the 90th fastest American on the year. This year, he’s #4 in the US and his place on the world list has gone from #505 to #18 in the world.

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Thumbs up to Cathal Doyle

The Irishman who never even made the final of NCAA while running at Portland and who failed to qualify for the European championships this year is going to the Olympics. After failing to make Euros, Doyle went off (in a good way). In the span of 7 days, from June 15 to June 22, Doyle raced three times and in those races he PRd twice and won twice.

The 26-year-old started the year with a 3:36.85 pb. He ran 3:36.02 on May 11 before going on a PR spree in mid-June.

All three of those races are in his Road to Paris Rankings but his win at the Paavo Nurmi Games on June 18th was the key to making it to Paris as it was a WA Gold meet, which generates 140 bonus points for the win. Of his 5 races in his rankings, it’s the only one even above the minimum number of points that he needed to qualify for the Olympics but it was so far above it pushed him into Paris.

Last week, Doyle was active yet again as he was second in the mile in the Cork City Sports meet in Cork on Tuesday in 3:54.48, before winning the Morton Games mile on Friday in Dublin in a new pb of 3:52.06.

The winner of the Cork City mile was Washington’s Nathan Green who ran a new pb of 3:53.67, after running a 3:32.20 1500 pb to finish 5th in the Olympic Trials. On Friday, Green followed that up with an 800 pb and second-place showing in Dublin in 1:46.23 (previous pb of 1:46.50 pb from an oversized track indoors, the race was won by South Africa’s Edmund Du Plessis in 1:44.22)

*After not qualifying for Euros, Irishman Cathal Doyle didn’t have the WR for the Olympics, then he PRd twice in 3 days and won both races and made it with points to spare Three of his top 5 ranking races all came in a 7-day period in June. *Doyle’s Road to Paris stats

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Thumbs up to Ireland’s Sophie O’Sullivan.

Embed from Getty Images

For the second straight year, the Husky is having a nice European season after bombing at NCAAs (12th at NCAAs in both 2023 and 2024). O’Sullivan responded to her NCAA debacle by winning the Irish champs on June 30th. Then she ran a seasonal best of 4:05.77 for the 1500 in Dublin on Friday before running a big 800 personal best of 2:00.28 on Sunday (previous pb of 2:01.43).

Sophie is unlikely to ever equal her mom’s feats on the global stage as Sonia was a world champion in track and xc and an Olympic silver medallist but she does have bragging rights now in the 800 as Sonia’s PB was 2:00.69.

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We broke down Monaco in great detail in our Supporters Club podcast immediately after the meet. If you want the latest in track and field analysis join the Supporters Club today.