Who Has The Most to Gain and Lose On the Track at the 2024 Olympics?
Noah Lyles and Grant Holloway could become legends with Olympic gold in Paris; with a loss, they'd go down as runners who could not win on the sport's biggest stage
By Jonathan Gault
There is no bigger stage in track & field than the Olympic Games. You can become an all-time great without winning the Olympics, but until you do it, there will be a big hole on your resume. An Olympic gold medal is the ultimate prize.
And with that in mind, we turn our eyes to the track & field competition at the 2024 Olympics, set to begin on August 2. The stakes are high for every athlete competing in Paris — this is the Olympics after all — but some athletes have a lot more on the line than others. For example, Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce‘s legacy is secure whether she wins another 100-meter gold or exits in the prelims. But if Noah Lyles exits the Games without a gold medal, he’ll be known as the guy who won everything in his career except the Olympics.
Below, I’ve listed the 10 runners (no field events) with the most at stake at Paris 2024. Some of them have a lot to gain with a victory. Others have a lot to lose with a defeat. Those with the most at stake fit both categories. We’ll start with the athlete with the least at stake (though it’s still a lot compared to every other Olympian) and count down to the athlete with the most at stake.
10) Faith Kipyegon, Kenya, 1500m/5,000m
Age: 30
Previous Olympic finishes: 1500 prelims (2012); 1st 1500 (2016); 1st 1500 (2021)
Kipyegon became the greatest female miler of all-time after winning the last Olympics. And since then, she’s filled the only hole on her resume by breaking world records in the mile (4:07.64) and 1500 (3:49.11 last year, then 3:49.04 this year). How could she possibly be among the athletes with the most at stake in Paris?
Because Kipyegon has the opportunity to make Olympic history. A victory in the 1500m would make Kipyegon the first female runner to three-peat at the Olympics (Polish hammer thrower Anita Włodarczyk is the only woman to do it in a field event). And should Kipyegon add gold in the 5000m, as she did at last year’s World Championships, she’d become the first woman to complete the 1500/5000 double, pushing her to four Olympic gold medals overall. That would tie her with Jamaica’s Elaine Thompson-Herah for the most individual Olympic golds by any female track & field athlete.
Kipyegon also has not been beaten in a 1500 since June 2021, so a defeat in Paris would qualify as a monumental upset.
9) Kenenisa Bekele, Ethiopia, marathon
Age: 42
Previous Olympic finishes: 2nd 5,000, 1st 10,000 (2004); 1st 5,000, 2nd 10,000 (2008); 4th 10,000 (2012)
I know what you’re thinking. Bekele? The guy who already has three Olympic golds? The guy whom many believe to already be the greatest distance runner in history? How can he have so much at stake?
Let’s call this an upside pick. If Bekele bombs in Paris, his legacy won’t change much. He’s had his moments in the marathon, but the image of Bekele as all-conquering distance god was forged on the track and in cross country. For most Bekele fans, the fact that he has even made it back to the Olympics at age 42 is already a massive victory.
But think about what happens if Bekele wins in Paris. At 42 years, 58 days, Bekele would become the oldest Olympic gold medalist in track & field, breaking the record of Pat McDonald (42 years, 26 days), who won an event (the 56-pound weight throw) that has been discontinued for more than 100 years. Bekele would be the oldest runner to win gold by more than three years — 2008 women’s marathon champ Constantina Diță of Romania (38 years, 207 days) currently holds that record.
Bekele would also become the first track & athlete to win individual golds 20 years apart — easily the largest gap between golds (Carl Lewis, Al Oerter, and Ulrike Meyfarth all won golds 12 years apart in the field events; no runner has ever won individual gold more than 8 years apart). And he would do it by defeating the greatest marathoner of all time, Eliud Kipchoge, in the same city, Paris, where Bekele won his first global track title 21 years ago.
A win by Bekele in Paris would also arguably rank as the greatest individual accomplishment by an athlete over the age of 40 in any sport — not just athletics. It would also cap one of the sport’s great comeback stories and definitively end any debate about whether Bekele is the greatest distance runner ever.
As for greatest feat by a 40+ athlete, if Bekele wins, let the debate begin. Yes, Tom Brady won two Super Bowls at 40+ but that’s why we put in the word “individual.” Jack Nicklaus won a Masters at 46, but while that was unexpected, golf is not nearly as physically demanding as marathon running, which explains why seven men have won the Masters past the age of 40 and no one has won an Olympic gold in running at that age.
That said, the closest equivalent to a victory by Bekele at the Olympics might be another golfer: Tiger Woods winning the 2019 Masters at age 43. Like Bekele, Woods was a singular talent who was written off multiple times before summoning one final moment of greatness on the sport’s biggest stage.
(Stats above courtesy Bill Mallon and his terrific Olympedia database.)
8) Lamecha Girma, Ethiopia, steeplechase
Age: 23
Previous Olympic finishes: 2nd steeple (2021)
Right now, Girma is the successor to Paul Tergat and Sileshi Sihine as Mr. Silver Medal. During their decorated track careers, distance stars Tergat and Sihine combined to win nine silvers and two bronzes across the World Championships and Olympics, but never a gold. Girma made his global championship debut in 2019 by finishing .01 behind steeple winner Conseslus Kipruto at Worlds, but that remains the closest he has come to victory, adding silvers at the 2021 Olympics, 2022 Worlds, and 2023 Worlds as well as silver in the flat 3,000 at 2022 World Indoors. Another silver in Paris would give Girma five overall in the steeple — the most ever across any World/Olympic event without tasting gold.
Girma is the world record holder in the steeple at 7:52.11 but has found himself blocked by two of the greatest kickers in history: first Kipruto, then Soufiane El Bakkali of Morocco. El Bakkali, who was injured earlier in the year, has only raced once this season, laboring to an 8:09 victory in Marrakech on May 19. Girma has only run one steeple this year himself, but he is the world leader at 8:01. With his greatest rival potentially vulnerable, this may be Girma’s best chance for that elusive gold.
7) Jakob Ingebrigtsen, Norway, 1500m/5000m
Age: 23
Previous Olympic finishes: 1st 1500 (2021)
Should Ingebrigtsen win both of his events in Paris, he’d write his name alongside some of the legends of the sport. A victory in the 1500 would make him just the second man to win that event twice, after Sebastian Coe (1980, 1984). And if he were to add the 5000 title four days later, he’d join Paavo Nurmi (1924) and Hicham El Guerrouj (2004) as the only men to complete the 1500/5000 double at the Olympics. He’d also be the first man born outside of Africa to win the Olympic 5,000 title since Germany’s Dieter Baumann in 1992 (and Baumann later served a drug ban).
And for someone who already has an Olympic gold, Ingebrigtsen still has a lot to lose. Last year, after a season in which he won 12 of 13 races, set world records in the 2000m and 2 miles, and won a world title at 5,000 meters, Ingebrigtsen was asked whether he accomplished most of what he wanted.
His answer? No. He had not won the race most important to him, the World Championship 1500-meter final. When Josh Kerr upset him in Budapest, Ingebrigtsen explained that he was sick and Kerr was “just the next guy.” But what happens if Kerr beats him again in Paris? Ingebrigtsen is entering the Olympics in the shape of his life, fresh off a 3:26.73 pb in Monaco. How would Ingebrigtsen, who believes that no one can beat him at his best, explain that one?
A defeat in the 1500 would also make it four straight defeats in global 1500 finals — 2022 World Indoors, 2022 Worlds, 2023 Worlds, 2024 Olympics — and further highlight Ingebrigtsen’s greatest weakness, an inability to win championship 1500s when he’s not being towed along to a 3:28 as he was by Timothy Cheruiyot in Tokyo. On the flip side, if Jakob front-runs a 3:27/3:28 in Paris and drops Kerr and the rest of the field en route to gold, it immediately becomes one of the most iconic performances in distance running history. Plus it would set him up for an unprecedented Olympic distance 3-peat in 2028. So yes, the stakes are pretty high.
6) Hellen Obiri, Kenya, marathon
Age: 34
Previous Olympic finishes: 8th 1500 (2012); 2nd 5,000 (2016); 2nd 5,000, 4th 10,000 (2021)
Obiri has won almost everything there is to win in the sport of running. She is the only woman in history to have won World Indoors, World Outdoors, and World XC. She has won the New York City Marathon and Boston Marathon (twice). The only thing missing from her resume is Olympic gold — though she has earned two silvers in the 5,000.
At 34, this may be Obiri’s final great shot at gold, and given her success on the hills of Boston and New York, she will enter as a slight favorite. But to claim victory, Obiri will have to overcome one of the great closers in marathon history: fellow Kenyan Peres Jepchirchir, who is seeking to become the first woman to win two Olympic marathon golds.
5) Rai Benjamin, USA, 400m hurdles
Age: 26
Previous Olympic finishes: 2nd 400 hurdles (2021)
Benjamin is the only one of the Big Three in the 400m hurdles not to have won a global gold, and 2024 may be his best chance to do it. Benjamin claimed silver behind Karsten Warholm at the 2019 Worlds and 2021 Olympics and another silver behind Alison dos Santos at the 2022 Worlds. He slipped to bronze at the 2023 Worlds in Budapest but since then he has not lost, notching two big head-to-head wins over both dos Santos and Warholm at the 2023 Pre Classic and 2024 Monaco. After fighting through injuries the last two years, Benjamin is fully healthy and enters Paris with three of the four fastest times in the world this year, including a world-leading 46.46. This is his moment. But if he gets beat by an all-time great in Warholm, he doesn’t have as much to lose as the people still to come on this list.
4) Keely Hodgkinson, Great Britain, 800m
Age: 22
Previous Olympic finishes: 2nd 800 (2021)
Hodgkinson will have another Olympics in her prime in 2028, but is she going to have another Olympics in her prime where her biggest rival (Athing Mu) will be watching from home? And what if fellow Brit Phoebe Gill, who has gone from 2:01 to 1:57 this year at age 17, keeps improving?
Hodgkinson has been incredible in her three global finals (1:55.88, 1:56.38, 1:56.34), but against Mu and Mary Moraa, that has only been good enough for three silver medals. Moraa will still be tough to beat in Paris, but Hodgkinson beat her convincingly when the two raced at Prefontaine in May. The Brit will not get a better opportunity to win gold. She also has more to lose than Benjamin above — Benjamin has two main rivals in the 400m hurdles and this year Hodgkinson only has one.
3) Grant Holloway, USA, 110m hurdles
Age: 26
Previous Olympic finishes: 2nd (2021)
Holloway is already the greatest 60-meter hurdler of all time. That argument is over. The question is whether he can become the greatest hurdler ever in the 110s as well. Right now, Allen Johnson, who owns four world titles, an Olympic gold, and the most sub-13.00s in history (11), occupies that position. Holloway would not pass Johnson with a win in Paris (he’d have four global titles to Johnson’s five), but it’s a necessary step if he wants to go down as the greatest hurdler ever. And if Holloway can break the world record in Paris as well — something Johnson never did — the GOAT argument becomes very interesting considering Holloway already owns two of the top four times in history.
On the other hand, Holloway has already lost one Olympic final as the favorite: he won every race during the 2021 season except the Olympics, where Jamaica’s Hansle Parchment beat him in Tokyo. Three years later, Holloway has again won every race so far in 2024 — as well as all five World Indoor/Outdoor finals in his career.
So either Holloway takes a massive step toward becoming the greatest of all time in his event or he goes down as the guy who wins everything but was upset in two straight Olympics.
2) Sha’Carri Richardson, USA, 100m
Age: 24
Previous Olympic finishes: none
You can argue that Sha’Carri Richardson might be a little too high on this list. Of course it would be a huge deal if Sha’Carri were to win gold in Paris, but she is already a huge star and the most famous American track athlete. She will still be a big deal after Paris, win or lose.
She also has age on her side. Richardson (24) is significantly younger than her Jamaican rivals Shericka Jackson (30), Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce (37), and Elaine Thompson-Herah (32, who won’t be in Paris). Yes, new talents, like 23-year-old Julien Alfred of St. Lucia, are arriving on the scene all the time, but even if Sha’Carri fails to win in Paris, she will still have another Olympics in her prime with a chance to win gold on home soil at LA 2028.
But as big as Sha’Carri is right now, with all those national ad campaigns, Olympic gold hits different. The 100 meters is the biggest event in track & field, and an American woman has not won it since Gail Devers in 1996 (Marion Jones crossed the line first at Sydney 2000 but was later stripped of the title for doping). Should Sha’Carri win in Paris, she would receive a ton of attention and opportunities in the short term — NBC has already anointed her one of its faces of the Games — and lock in her legacy long term because she’d forever be known as Olympic gold medalist Sha’Carri Richardson. She’d be the FloJo of the 2020s.
But if she doesn’t win, she’ll have to wait four more years to prove she can win the ultimate prize.
1) Noah Lyles, USA, 100m/200m
Age: 27
Previous Olympic finishes: 3rd (2021)
Lyles is in a similar situation to Holloway, fitting for two men who graduated high school in the same state (Virginia) and year (2016). Like Holloway in the 110 hurdles, Lyles has owned the 200 meters, winning world titles in 2019, 2022, and 2023. He’s actually been even more dominant than Holloway. Since turning pro in 2017, Lyles has lost just two outdoor 200m races: the 2019 Rome Diamond League to Michael Norman and the 2021 Olympic final to Andre De Grasse and Kenny Bednarek. That’s it.
So the downside for Lyles is very similar to Holloway: if he loses in both events in Paris, he’ll go down as one of the best sprinters of his generation but the guy who could not get it done on the sport’s biggest stage.
Lyles is still not close to becoming the best ever in his event like Holloway. Even if Lyles breaks Usain Bolt‘s 19.19 world record in the 200, he’s not going to usurp Bolt’s status as the 200m GOAT — that would give Lyles one world record, three world titles, and one Olympic gold compared to Bolt’s two world records, four world titles, and three Olympic golds.
But if Lyles can complete the 100/200 double in Paris, he’d join Bolt and Carl Lewis as the only men in the last 50 years to pull off that particular double at the Olympics. He’d be the first American to win the sport’s biggest prize — the Olympic 100 meters — since Justin Gatlin in 2004. Lyles has always sought to transcend the sport, and he has done all that he can to raise his profile, from documentaries to walk-ins to winning a pile of World Championship golds. But nothing resonates with the general public like the Olympics. Double (or triple with the 4×100 relay) gold in Paris would push Lyles into the mainstream and make him the world’s biggest track star since Bolt. No pressure.
Discuss: Which runners have the most to gain/lose at the 2024 Olympics?
Honorable mention: Michael Norman was once viewed as the future of the 400m, becoming the 4th-fastest ever back in 2019 at the age of 21. He has a ton to gain if he can win the Olympics and get his 400m career back on track. He trains in LA and would be primed to be a star in 2028. But he has less to lose, as right now he is not among the top two favorites for 400m gold.
