Ranking the US Mid-D and Distance Olympic Medal Hopefuls From #1 to #33
By Robert Johnson
So the 2024 Paris Olympics are almost here. How many mid-d and distance medals can the Americans win?
In each of the last two Olympics, the US mid-d and distance runners (800m through marathon) have won at least five medals. In 2016, Paul Chelimo, Evan Jager, Clayton Murphy, Matthew Centrowitz, Galen Rupp, Jenny Simpson, and Emma Coburn combined to win a whopping seven medals. In 2021, Chelimo, Athing Mu, Raevyn Rogers, Courtney Frerichs, and Molly Seidel brought home a total of five medals.
It would be surprising if the US gets that many in 2024 as I don’t think any American has a great than 30% shot of medalling. I’d put the over / under for total US mid-d / distance medals at 2.5.
From #1 (most likely to medal) to #33 (least likely to medal), here are the medal odds of every American mid-d/distance runner competing in Paris this year.
1. Grant Fisher (5,000/10,000) ≈ 28%
I can’t believe that Grant Fisher is at the top of my list as I don’t think he’s better than ever this year. But as a former high school math teacher, I have to follow the statistics, which don’t lie.
Fisher finally won a US 10,000 title this year. Kevin Morris photo
I don’t like Fisher’s odds for a medal in the 10k at all. He’s not as good as Yomif Kejelcha, Jacob Kiplimo, Selemon Barega, or Joshua Cheptegei. If they run their best, Fisher isn’t beating them. Yes, Fisher leads Kejelcha 5-3 lifetime in all races but Kejelcha has won the last three and they haven’t been particularly close (2023 Florence, 2023 Zurich, and 2023 Pre).
Lifetime, Berihu Aregawi is 5-4 against Fisher and Aregawi beat him in Tokyo (4th to Fisher’s 5th) and in the 5,000 in LA earlier this year.
The good news for Fisher is he stacks up well against the Kenyans. Kenyan trials winner Daniel Mateiko is 0-1 vs Fisher and has never broken 13:00 (his PR is 13:13). Fisher is 5-2 vs Nicholas Kimeli and Benard Kibet also has never broken 13:00 in his life. But in each of the last two years, one of the three Kenyans has risen up at Worlds to take a medal and that definitely could happen again in 2024. I’d put the odds of Fisher beating all three Kenyans at maybe 50%. In aggregate, I’d put Fisher’s medal odds at about 10% in the 10,000, and I think he’s a better 10,000 guy than 5,000 guy.
But I like his medal odds in the 5,000 better. Why? Well the Ethiopians foolishly didn’t enter Kejelcha in the 5,000 nor Barega (though Barega is entered as the alternate and Ethiopia could sub him in if he wins the 10,000). Instead, they’ve gone with a B team. If Jakob Ingebrigtsen takes gold and Hagos Gebrhiwet silver, there is still a medal to be had. Will the Ugandans be motivated to double back if they’ve already rocked the 10,000?
I’d put Fisher’s odds of a medal in the 5,000 about 20%. If it’s 20% for the 5,000 and 10% for the 10,000, then combined he’s got a 28% chance of earning at least one medal (1-(0.9*.8).
2. Nia Akins (800) ≈ 25%
Akins was a DOMINANT winner at the US Trials. Kevin Morris photo
The events where the US has the best shot of a medal are the men’s and women’s 1500s. But in those events, you have to split the percentages as I’m not sure who is going to be the top American.
I’m very confident Akins will be the top American in the 800. I’m just not sure she’ll be good enough to medal. The results of this event very well could be just like they were at Prefontaine in May:
1. Keely Hodgkinson GBR 1:55.78
2. Mary Moraa KEN 1:56.71
3. Jemma Reekie GBR 1:57.45
4. Nia Akins USA 1:57.98
Akins is only the 9th-fastest woman on the year but coach Danny Mackey has shown with Josh Kerr he’s good at peaking his athletes when it matters most. But Jemma Reekie is on fire. I only give Akins a 1/3 shot of beating Reekie but the winner of that matchup isn’t 3rd 100% of the time.
3. Elle St. Pierre (1500) ≈ 22.5%
Faith Kipyegon is winning the gold in the women’s 1500. Despite Jessica Hull‘s big form, I’d say Ethiopia’s Diribe Welteji should be favored for silver as she got second at Worlds last year, beat Hull and St. Pierre to win Prefontaine, and also won in LA. Plus Welteji handed Kipyegon her only loss of 2023 in the world road mile championship. Regardless, Welteji and Hull have the inside track on the next two medals.
This is all based on the assumption that Gudaf Tsegay is going to struggle to medal the night after running the 10,000, but she can’t be ruled out — particularly since there are rumors she may not run the 10,000.
So for the top American to medal, they need a way to figure out how to beat Hull or Welteji plus the likes of Laura Muir, Birke Haylom, Tsegay, etc. They did catch a huge break when Ethiopia didn’t enter world indoor champ Freweyni Hailu, who was 4th in Tokyo.
If Tsegay is tripling in the 1500/5k/10k, I’ll say the odds an American medals are 45%. If she drops the 10,000, I’ll say the Americans’ odds are 30%. Then you have to split it between St. Pierre and Nikki Hiltz. Hiltz has been unreal this year and won USAs but we must remember that St. Pierre did all the work in that race and was doubling back from the 5,000. I’m saying St. Pierre wins that matchup 60% of the time in Paris, which is below her historical rate of 75% (Hiltz is 5-15 vs St. Pierre in the mile and 1500). And let’s say there is a 50% chance Tsegay runs the 10,000.
So the odds are 22.5% for St. Pierre and 15% for Hiltz. If Tsegay doesn’t run the 10,000, the odds drop to 18% and 12%.
4. Cole Hocker (1500) ≈ 22%
Behind the big two of Ingebrigtsen and Josh Kerr, third place is there for the taking in the men’s 1500. I fully expect the Americans to be in the hunt, battling it out for third with Timothy Cheruiyot of Kenya, Niels Laros of the Netherlands, etc. Let’s say 33% of the time, an American gets third — then you have to split it between Nuguse and Hocker (with a tiny chance for Kessler). Hocker won the Trials and his close may have been the fastest in history in a race that fast. But I’m not totally ruling out Nuguse for third as we need to remember that Nuguse did all of the leading at the Trials, which we’ve seen in recent years is hard to do. So if Hocker beats Nuguse two out of three times, then his medal odds are 22.2% and Nuguse’s are 11.1%.
5. Val Constien (steeple) ≈ 20%
I wasn’t even contemplating the thought of Val Constien medalling at beginning of the year. But she’s #3 in the world and it’s not like these steeplechase women are super consistent. I was going to say she had a 15% chance but now I’m raising it to 20% and that could still be low, but she was 10 seconds back of third at the Prefontaine Classic.
6. Nikki Hiltz (1500) ≈ 15%
See above.
7. Bryce Hoppel (800) ≈ 15%
Hoppel ran 1:42.77 from the front at USAs. Thus I understand why many think he can run 1:41 if running behind others. What’s crazy is that still might not be enough for a medal as three guys have run 1:41.61 or faster this year and none of them are reigning world champ Marco Arop.
What concerns me the most is the two times Hoppel has raced the top guys in the world in 2024, he’s been gotten killed. He lost to Arop by 2.17 seconds indoors in a 1k in February and to Djamel Sedjati by 1.06 seconds in an 800 in early June in Stockholm.
If there was a four-person rabbitted 800 with Sedjati, Arop, Wanyonyi, and Hoppel where fourth place is executed, I think Hoppel would finish 4th nine times out of ten. But that’s not the way the 800 is run in championships. Lots of people will be wasting energy and going for the win. Hoppel needs to run for third.
8. Courtney Wayment (steeple) ≈ 15%
The US runner-up is #7 on the 2024 world list at 9:07 and has also run 14:49 for 5,000 this year. When Courtney Frerichs earned World Championship silver in 2017, she had a pb of 9:19.09 heading into the race and was just 2nd at USAs.
9. Fiona O’Keeffe (marathon) ≈ 15%
Supposedly she’s made for hills and based on the way she ran at the Trials, she seems made for the marathon. And crazy things happen in the Olympic marathon. Three years ago in Japan, I said I was going to sleep through the marathon as the US had zero shot at a medal only to be woken up by Jonathan Gault when Molly Seidel was headed towards a medal.
10. Yared Nuguse (1500) ≈ 11%
See above.
11. Emily Mackay (1500) ≈ 5%
Mackay medalled at World Indoors and I say about 1/8 times is she the top American in Paris.
12. Abdihamud Nur (5,000) ≈ 5%
I’ve long thought Abdihamid Nur has the ability to medal at Worlds. But his pbs are 3:35/13:04 and he’s never beaten Grant Fisher in a race. I’m not sure if any American has even a 30% chance of a medal. But he’s 2-2 lifetime against Luis Grijalva, who has been 4th the last two years.
13. Hobbs Kessler (800/1500) ≈ 4%
Is it possible he is a new and freer runner after making the 1500 team? He did run back to back 1:43s and he’s got two shots at it in the 1500 and 800.
14. Allie Wilson (800) ≈ 2%
Wilson is #10 in the world, but she also bombed out of World Indoors in the first round in March. Often if you make the Olympic final, you have a decent shot at a medal, and Wilson could definitely make the final in Paris. The problem is that the talent is far more spread out than in the men’s 800. The top 800 women are a lot better than everyone else, which will make it hard for someone like Wilson to medal.
15. Clayton Young (marathon) ≈ 2%
History has shown there’s a decent chance all of the Ethiopians will drop out (it has happened in two of the last three Olympics). Kipchoge is approaching 40. How many more guys are left to beat?
16. Conner Mantz (marathon) ≈ 2%
I know Mantz won the Trials, but Young probably would have won that race if both men were all-out in the home straight.
17. Brandon Miller (800) ≈ 2%
Due to the nature of the event, if you somehow make the final, you might have a shot at a medal. But good luck making the final with how fast everyone is running this year.
18. Marisa Howard (steeple) ≈ 2%
She’s #8 in the world this year but has overachieved to run as well as she has given her other PBs.
19. Emily Sisson (marathon) ≈ 1%
She doesn’t like hills so how in the world is she going to do well on such a hilly course?
20. Woody Kincaid (10,000) ≈ 1%
His kick is lethal but I don’t see a scenario where this one stays slow.
1% or less chance to medal
21. Kenneth Rooks
22. Juliette Whittaker
23. Weini Kelati
24. Matthew Wilkinson
25. James Corrigan
26. Leonard Korir
27. Elise Cranny
28. Parker Valby
29. Karissa Schweizer
30. Dakotah Lindwurm
31. Graham Blanks
32. Nico Young
33. Whittni Morgan
Having finished the exercise, I’ll admit now I think I was too pessimistic but it’s better to set expectations low and then be pleasantly surprised. I think I didn’t properly account for scenarios where one or both of the top 2 favorites in an event like the men’s 1500 don’t medal, or food poisoning or illness wipes out an entire distance squad or the favorite in the steeple missing the first water jump.
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From #1 (Grant Fisher) to #33 Whittni Morgan – Here as the US Mid-D and Distance Runners’ Medal Odds
