Olympic Men’s 1500m Preview: Ingebrigtsen v Kerr Should Be Legendary; Could Hocker Pull the Upset?
After months of buildup between two bitter rivals, the final in Paris on August 6 could be an all-time classic
By Jonathan Gault
The wait is almost over. The men’s Olympic 1500 meters is almost upon us.
The 1500 is always one of the crown jewels of the Olympic program, and the burgeoning rivalry between Olympic champion Jakob Ingebrigtsen of Norway and world champion Josh Kerr of Great Britain has sent anticipation levels through the roof in 2024. The last two global 1500-meter finals were unforgettable, and this year’s race is shaping up as an all-time classic after the two men have spent the last 12 months trading verbal barbs.
On the night of August 6 in the Stade de France, one of three things will happen:
1) Ingebrigtsen will win his second Olympic 1500-meter title at the age of 23, joining Seb Coe (1980, 1984) as the only man to repeat as champion.
2) Kerr will win gold, just as he did at last year’s World Championships, bringing Ingebrigtsen’s record in global 1500m finals to 0-4 since his triumph at the 2021 Olympics (with one being the 2022 World Indoors loss).
3) Someone else will win the title in one of the great Olympic upsets. Could it be 19-year-old phenom Niels Laros? Or perhaps two-time Olympic Trials champion Cole Hocker of the United States?
As long as the race isn’t marred by a fall — which has sadly become all too common in middle-distance races this year — it’s hard to envision a scenario in which this race is not totally awesome. Here’s what you need to know.
*2024 Olympic track & field schedule *TV/streaming information *All LRC Paris 2024 coverage
Kerr vs. Ingebrigtsen: Setting the scene
Ingebrigtsen is coming off a personal best of 3:26.74 in Monaco on July 12 that makes him the fourth-fastest man of all time. He is in the shape of his life. That is what every athlete aims for heading into the Olympic Games, but it was far from a given for Ingebrigtsen, who missed a chunk of training this winter due to an Achilles injury.
That time also makes Ingebrigtsen the fastest man of 2024 by almost two seconds:
| Athlete | Meet | Date | Time |
| Jakob Ingebrigtsen | Herculis | July 12 | 3:26.74 |
| Josh Kerr | Prefontaine | May 25 | 3:28.65* |
| Timothy Cheruiyot | Herculis | July 12 | 3:28.71 |
| Brian Komen | Herculis | July 12 | 3:28.80 |
| Yared Nuguse | Herculis | July 12 | 3:29.13 |
*Converted from 3:45.34 mile
Ingebrigtsen’s season’s best is 1.91 seconds better than everyone else this year, which is around the gap you need to be able to win a global championship from the front (the tactic everyone expects Ingebrigtsen to use). But that statistic ignores two things.
1) Kerr beat Ingebrigtsen when Kerr ran his season’s best at the Prefontaine Classic.
2) Kerr hasn’t run a 1500 or mile since Pre.
In fact, Kerr’s race at Pre is his only 1500 or mile of the entire year. Even though Kerr has been healthy virtually the entire year, his first 1500-meter of 2024 will be the first round of the Olympics on August 2.
Kevin Morris photo
Historically, Kerr has not run a ton of 1500s in the leadup to major championships. In 2021, he ran three 1500m finals before the Olympics. In 2022, he ran two. And in 2023, he ran two. Kerr’s coach Danny Mackey told LetsRun.com that Kerr would have run the 1500 at the Portland Track Festival on June 9, but he was a little banged up.
For Kerr, who has been training for the Olympics in Albuquerque, racing in Europe requires a significant amount of travel. After returning to ABQ following the British trials, Mackey said Kerr preferred to log a month of uninterrupted altitude training rather than break that up by racing Diamond Leagues in Monaco or London. Mackey also pointed to Kerr’s track record of staying healthy and performing well at championships as reasons not to change his approach. That’s an understatement as Kerr has run his 1500 seasonal best in every single global 1500 final he has run: 3:32.52 in 2019 (6th), 3:29.05 in 2021 (3rd), 3:30.60 in 2022 (5th), 3:29.38 in 2023 (1st).
“He puts a lot into races,” Mackey said. “…I always do wonder how athletes can pull off a ton of races and stay healthy.
“The only time he hasn’t medalled in the last three [championships] was [when] he had COVID in 2022 and he still got 5th (Mackey said Kerr was sick in the final and diagnosed the next day). If he is running poorly in August, we’d probably look through things and wonder if he might need to race more. But he seems to be pretty sharp and ready to go [at major championships].”
All of that is to say I don’t believe that the 1.91-second gap Ingebrigtsen has on the rest of the world this year is actually 1.91 seconds — Kerr is closer than that.
Kerr has been red-hot in 2024 and won the World Indoor 3k title on home soil in March (Kevin Morris photo)
How much closer? Kerr, like Ingebrigtsen, is undeniably fitter than he was in 2023. At the 2023 Millrose Games, Kerr won the 3,000 in 7:33.47. This year at Millrose, Kerr came through 3,000 in 7:30.14…then ran another 218 meters to set a world indoor record of 8:00.67 for two miles (Ingebrigtsen set the outdoor record of 7:54.10 last year). A month later, Kerr crushed 3:43 miler Yared Nuguse and reigning 3k champ Selemon Barega to win the World Indoor 3,000 title with a killer 25.19 last lap. Outdoors, Kerr’s 3:45.34 win at Pre broke Steve Cram‘s 39-year-old British mile record and the 1500 conversion (3:28.65) is faster than his pb at that distance (3:29.05).
Mackey said they have worked on improving Kerr’s top-end speed this year and feel that he is sprinting faster than ever, but Kerr is still very strong. Two weeks before the Olympics, Kerr ran 8 x 400m in practice with 90 seconds’ rest averaging 54 seconds — the fastest he has ever run that session. Mackey told LetsRun.com that if Kerr had raced the 1500 in Monaco, he believes he would have run 3:26.
“I don’t know if he beats Jakob, but I think he’s right there with him,” Mackey said.
“If I’m Jakob or Cheruiyot, I would try to push the pace and make it a 3:26 race”
There will be no pacers in Paris, which means Ingebrigtsen won’t enjoy the benefit of drafting off anyone if he does what everyone expects him to do and hits the front early. And between the two men, Kerr is regarded as having the superior kick. So if we take Mackey at his word and say Kerr is in 3:26 shape, does that make Kerr the obvious favorite for gold?
Not necessarily. Kerr may be a slight favorite for the reasons listed above, but even if he is a better kicker (and the gap between him and Ingebrigtsen may be closer than you think), the faster a race goes, the harder it is to kick at the end.
And did you watch Monaco? Ingebrigtsen didn’t just run 3:26. He ran 3:26 closing in 40.2 for his final 300. That means Ingebrigtsen hit 1200 on 3:28.1 pace and picked it up. Do you know how hard it is to do that?
Incidentally, kicking off a fast pace is also the way you win championship 1500m finals in the year 2024. Mackey said he would not be surprised if the Ingebrigtsen’s Olympic record of 3:28.32 from three years ago is obliterated in this race.
“I watch Monaco, and if I’m Jakob or [Tim] Cheruiyot, I would try to push the pace and make it a 3:26 race [in Paris],” Mackey told LetsRun.com.
That’s obviously going to be tough to do. But the faster Ingebrigtsen runs in the final, the harder he makes it on Kerr. It’s pretty simple: it’s harder to pass someone running 3:28 pace than 3:29 pace and harder still to pass someone running 3:27 pace.
The same logic applies if Ingebrigtsen does what some on the LetsRun messageboard have suggested and replicate Hicham El Guerrouj‘s strategy from the 2004 Olympic final, making a long push over the final 800-1000m and ratcheting up the pace every 100 (MB JACOB and YARED, why won’t either try to emulate Hicham’s 1500m tactics?). That’s essentially what Ingebrigtsen did at the European Championships in Rome in June, and he won that race brilliantly in 3:31.95 (1:50.54 final 800, 53.34 final 400, 26.11 final 200, 12.86 final 100). Of course, Kerr was not in that one.
In his last three global 1500 finals (2022 World Indoors, 2022 Worlds, 2023 Worlds) Ingebrigtsen has taken the lead somewhere between 300 and 700 meters and pushed the pace. Each time, it has ended the same way: Ingebrigtsen succeeded in dropping the entire field…minus one guy, who outkicked him over the final 200 meters.
You might think that three straight silver medals would call for a change in strategy for a man who won Olympic 1500 gold at age 20. But almost everyone expects Ingebrigtsen to employ the same strategy in Paris. Ingebrigtsen is stubborn. His response to getting upset by Jake Wightman and Josh Kerr in back-to-back World Championship finals was to double down and tell Norwegian paper Stavanger Aftenblad that he would win against them “98 out of 100 times.”
We know that number is wrong, because Ingebrigtsen lost his very next race to Kerr at Pre. But when it comes to his strategy in championship finals, Ingebrigtsen is right to be stubborn. Just because he was beaten in Belgrade, Eugene, and Budapest does not mean that Ingebrigtsen was wrong to push the pace and try to win from the front. Ingebrigtsen is a strength runner. He has a better chance of defeating Kerr (and everyone else) in a fast race than a slow one.
Ingebrigtsen will not have forgotten this race (Photo by Stephen Pond/Getty Images for World Athletics)
Consider last year’s World Championship final. Yes, Kerr famously outkicked Ingebrigtsen to win gold. But Ingebrigtsen has very openly admitted he was sick during that race, and the numbers back it up. Ingebrigtsen had been burying people over the final 100 on the circuit before Worlds last year. In the leadup to Budapest, he ran 3:27.95 in Oslo, 3:28.72 in Lausanne, and 3:27.14 in Silesia. His final 100m in those races: 13.4, 13.3, 13.3 — and those are races where he clearly had the win sewn up in the home straight. In Budapest, the winning time was slower (3:29.65), Ingebrigtsen had a guy to chase in the home straight, yet his final 100 was just 13.9 (and he only lost to Kerr by .27).
There are two ways to view that. One is that Ingebrigtsen ran his first 300 of the last lap in 39.86 — far quicker than any of his DL races — and was thus tired out by the finish. The second way to interpret it is that Ingebrigtsen was genuinely sick and it affected his performance. The truth is probably a combination of both.
But we know how Ingebrigtsen feels. After the race, Ingebrigtsen said he felt he ran a “perfect [tactical] race.” In his mind, Ingebrigtsen didn’t make a tactical mistake; his body just was not capable of doing what it had done all year as he was sick.
We’ll never know how a healthy Ingebrigtsen would have fared against Kerr in Budapest, nor against Tefera in Belgrade in 2022 where he tested positive for COVID-19 a few days later. But, assuming no one gets sick in the next 10 days, we will get to see how an even better version of Ingebrigtsen fares against an even better version of Kerr in Paris. It’s going to be awesome.
Could anyone else win?
Given the months of trash talk, their 1-2 finish last year, and both men’s brilliant performances in 2024, it is tempting to label this race as a two-man battle between Ingebrigtsen and Kerr. And while it could well play out that way, recent evidence suggests we could see an interloper.
Remember, no one expected Wightman to be at Ingebrigtsen’s level in Eugene two years ago. Heading into last year’s Worlds in Budapest, Yared Nuguse, not Kerr, was viewed as the biggest threat to Ingebrigtsen. So if someone is going to surprise for gold in 2024, who could it be?
Two of the three Americans, Nuguse and Cole Hocker have a shot at pulling the upset. The other, 21-year-old Hobbs Kessler, has been very impressive this year. He won the world road mile title last year and almost won World Indoors in March, but the Olympics will be a significant jump in competition from both of those events. He is likely still a year or two away from contending at a major outdoor champs.
We’ll get to the Americans in a minute. Let’s start with the Kenyans.
Timothy Cheruiyot (3:28.71) and Brian Komen (3:28.80) sit 2-3 on the 2024 world list after finishing 2nd and 3rd behind Ingebrigtsen in Monaco. Cheruiyot, who earned two silvers and a gold at the Worlds/Olympics from 2017-21, looked to be on the decline the last few years as he was only 6th at the 2022 Worlds in Eugene and did not make the final in Budapest last year while battling a knee injury. This year, a healthy Cheruiyot has been rejuvenated, pushing Ingebrigtsen to the line in Oslo and running his fastest 1500 since 2021.
The 25-year-old Komen, meanwhile, has come out of nowhere this year — seriously, his World Athletics profile lists no results prior to last year — to win titles at the African Games and African Championships as well as the Doha Diamond League. However, he was only 5th at the Kenyan trials. He’s only going to Paris because two of the guys in front of him lacked the Olympic standard.
The concern about Cheruiyot and Komen, obviously, is that they just got blasted by Ingebrigtsen in Monaco. While Cheruiyot has the far more impressive resume, Komen may be the better pick for an upset in Paris as he is still finding his limits. And his 54.4 last lap in Monaco showed he can close quickly in a fast race.
The third Kenyan — and winner of their trials — is Reynold Cheruiyot, and he’s a big talent. He was the world U20 champ two years ago and only turned 20 today – Happy Birthday! Last year, he was 8th at Worlds, but his performances on the circuit in 2024 (3rd Doha, 2nd LA behind Ollie Hoare, 6th Pre) suggest he’s not ready yet to spring an upset bid in Paris.
The Netherlands’ Niels Laros is a potential wild card. Last year, at age 18, he clocked pbs of 1:44.78, 3:31.25, and 13:23.01 and ran utterly fearlessly at Worlds — he was 4th coming off the final turn but ran out of steam and finished 10th. This year, we haven’t gotten the chance to see what a fully-fit Laros can do in a 1500 as he fell in Monaco and fell again in London a week later. But we know he is in great shape. On July 7, he ran a world U20 record of 2:14.37 in the 1000m, and even though the fall cost him 2+ seconds in London, he still ran 3:49.45 and almost won the race. The question is whether Laros, at 19, has the legs to run 3:27 or 3:28 in the final after two hard rounds.
Ritzenhein on Nuguse: “I do think he can close [the gap to Ingebrigtsen]”
At the end of 2023, American Yared Nuguse seemed the best bet of anyone to crash the Ingebrigtsen-Kerr party. Nuguse has never defeated Ingebrigtsen (0-6 lifetime), but he came incredibly close in last year’s Diamond League final where both men ran 3:43. US fans hoped that performance (which converts to 3:27.40 for 1500, a big improvement on Nuguse’s 3:29.02 pb) meant Nuguse had reached another level after what was already a breakout 2023 season. But so far, Nuguse has been at the same level in 2024 as he was for most of 2023.
That level is still very high, and it could be good enough to get on the podium — he was 2nd behind Kerr at World Indoors in the 3k and 3rd behind Kerr and Ingebrigtsen in the mile at Prefontaine, running 3:46.22. But Nuguse was not close to winning either of those races, and in his two global finals (2023 World 1500, 2024 World Indoor 3000), Nuguse was out of position and/or too late to respond to the winning moves when they were made. He must be more aggressive if he is to challenge for gold in Paris.
Plus, like the Kenyans, Nuguse just got smoked by Ingebrigtsen in Monaco, finishing more than two seconds behind in 4th (3:29.13). His coach Dathan Ritzenhein believes Nuguse can close the gap in Paris, however. Ritzenhein said that Nuguse has been more championship-focused than last year, and believes he is in better shape than before the 2023 Worlds. Ritzenhein noted that in last year’s World final, Nuguse ran 3:30.25 in his third race in five days. At this year’s Olympic Trials, Nuguse ran almost the same time (3:30.86), except it was his third race in four days and he led almost the entire thing.
“I do think he can close [the gap to Ingebrigtsen],” Ritzenhein told LetsRun.com. “I think there was more in the tank there for him [in Monaco]. He’ll handle the rounds better than last year, too, he went through his first real major championships last year…Jakob looked amazing at Monaco for sure, but he also ran 3:27 before [Worlds] last year and got beat.”
The best upset pick for gold is…
…Cole Hocker. Here’s the case for the 23-year-old American.
If, as expected, the Olympic final plays out similarly to the 2022 and 2023 World Championship finals, then we know what is required for gold. You need the strength to be able to run 3:29 (maybe 3:28 this year given the form Ingebrigtsen and Kerr have shown) at the end of three rounds, and you need to be able to kick off of that pace over the last 200. That’s how Wightman and Kerr pulled their upsets, and Hocker has shown in 2024 that he possesses the same skillset.
Hocker has always been able to kick. It’s the strength part that has been the issue for him. In Hocker’s previous two global championships outdoors, he has not been physically cabaple of running 3:29. He finished 6th at the 2021 Olympics in 3:31.40 and 7th at the 2023 Worlds in 3:30.70. Both times were personal bests. Hocker could not summon his signature kick in either race because he was already running as fast as his body could handle.
Things are different in 2024. After being limited by a foot injury in 2022 and Achilles problems in 2023, Hocker has been injury-free in 2024 and has run more 5k-style workouts than in years past. The early returns (8:05 2-mile indoors, 12:58 5k in May) were promising, but the proof Hocker has reached a new level came in the Olympic Trials 1500 final.
Hocker did not just win the Trials in a pb of 3:30.59. He did it with a savage close: 1:49.44 for his final 800, 52.63 for his final 400. The race felt different to any championship final Hocker had been in before.
“I’ve never been able to [accelerate] at that pace before,” Hocker said. “You could have told me that was a 3:35 race and I would have believed it.”
How impressive was Hocker’s close at the Trials? LRC messageboard poster Raph has compiled an amazing table comparing Hocker’s final 300m in that race to every World/Olympic final since 1980. In those races, no winner closed faster than Hocker’s 38.9 while running as fast as Hocker did at the Trials. Remember when Taoufik Makhloufi destroyed everyone over the final 300 in the 2012 Olympic final? His final 300 in that race was 39.4 — slower than Hocker despite a much slower winning time (3:34.08).
If you look at Hocker’s close at the Trials compared to every global final where the winning time was faster than 3:34, you’d have to go back to the mid-90s to find someone who closed faster:
How Hocker’s kick stacks up against winners of global championships (winning time < 3:34.00)
| Athlete | Race | Winning time | Final 300 |
| Noureddine Morceli | 1995 Worlds | 3:33.73 | 38.5 |
| Noureddine Morceli | 1991 Worlds | 3:32.84 | 38.8 |
| Cole Hocker | 2024 US Olympic Trials | 3:30.59 | 38.9 |
| Asbel Kiprop | 2008 Olympics | 3:33.11 | 39.1 |
| Sebastian Coe | 1984 Olympics | 3:32.53 | 39.2 |
| Josh Kerr | 2023 Worlds | 3:29.38 | 39.8 |
| Elijah Manangoi | 2017 Worlds | 3:33.61 | 39.8 |
| Noah Ngeny | 2000 Olympics | 3:32.07 | 40.1 |
| Hicham El Guerrouj | 1999 Worlds | 3:27.65 | 40.8 |
| Jakob Ingebrigtsen | 2021 Olympics | 3:28.32 | 40.8 |
| Jake Wightman | 2022 Worlds | 3:29.23 | 40.8 |
Data courtesy of Raph from this LetsRun messageboard thread: MB Hocker’s Ridiculous Kick. The stats don’t lie. “As of right now, I think it’s fair to say that statistically Hocker has the greatest 1500m kick of all time, with Coe at #2, and maybe Morceli
Is this cherry picking data? Of course. But it certainly seems relevant that Hocker just won the Olympic Trials by running his final 300 almost a full second faster than Kerr did at the 2023 Worlds and two seconds faster than Wightman did at the 2022 Worlds. It shows Hocker has what it takes to close fast in a fast championship final.
The difference of course, is that the 2022 and 2023 Worlds finals were both 3:29 races, and the 2024 Olympic final could be faster still. Will Hocker’s kick still be there if the pace is that fast? In May, when Kerr and Ingebrigtsen were duking it out in the Prefontaine Mile, Hocker was more than three seconds back in 3:48.95. Hocker was clearly fitter than that at the Trials, but he didn’t run Monaco so we didn’t get to see if he has closed the gap to Ingebrigtsen & Kerr. We’ll have to wait until August 6 to find out.
JG prediction: 1. Kerr 2. Ingebrigtsen 3. Hocker
Who wins the men's 1500 at the 2024 Olympics?
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Who do you WANT to win the men's 1500 at the Olympics?
Results are hidden until the poll is closed.
(We’ll announce the results of who the fans want on this week’s Track Talk podcast)
Where does Cole Hocker finish in the 2024 Olympic 1500?
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Where does Yared Nuguse finish in the 2024 Olympic 1500?
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Where does Hobbs Kessler finish in the 2024 Olympic 1500?
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PS. Did you know Jakob and two of his brothers have made a song to get Norway pumped for the Olympics?
There have been some incredible messageboard threads breaking down this race in recent weeks. Make sure to visit the LetsRun.com messageboard for the best discussion of elite running.
MB What? Track and Field New picks Nuguse 3rd – Hocker 9th in Olympic 1500?
MB What could Jakob run it he front-runs the 1500m final?
MB Kerr sub 3:27 potential?
MB Hot take: Josh Kerr is not a lock to medal and will not medal
MB Hocker’s Ridiculous Kick. The stats don’t lie. “As of right now, I think it’s fair to say that statistically Hocker has the greatest 1500m kick of all time, with Coe at #2, and maybe Morceli
MB World 1500 Power Rankings: Pre-Olympics Edition
MB Laros’ current shape
MB: Ingebrigtsen brothers release incredibly catchy Olympic music video (listen here + full lyrics)
