Olympic Men’s 10,000 Preview: Does Joshua Cheptegei have one last great 10,000 in him?
By Robert Johnson
The first track final of the 2024 Paris Olympics should a dandy. The men’s 10,000-meter final will take place on Friday at 9:20 p.m. in Paris (3:20 p.m. ET). In this event, there is a Big 4 that should contend for the gold medal. Here they are.
Joshua Cheptegei – 27 years old – Uganda – 12:35 (2020)/26:11 (2020) pbs – 12:51.94 5000 sb this year, 26:53 roads
Joshua Cheptegei celebrates after winning the 2023 World Athletics Championships 10,000m title in Budapest (photo by Jane Monti for Race Results Weekly)
Why he will win gold: Cheptegei is the 5,000 and 10,000 world record holder. He’s won the last three World Championship 10,000 (2019, 2022, and 2023) after having to settle for Olympic silver in the 10,000 in 2021 (he won the 5,000 in Tokyo). Cheptegei won the 10,000 easily last year — by more than a second.
Why he won’t win gold: After running 2:08:59 in his marathon debut in December, Cheptegei, the 2019 world cross country champion, only finished 6th at this year’s World XC in March. Since then, he’s run two track races and lost both of them. He ran 12:52 for 3rd in LA on May 17. Then on May 30, he ran a tiny bit faster in Oslo, 12:51, but that only placed him 9th. Though it should be pointed out that last year, he also had two 5000s before Worlds and he lost both of them. The difference was the 2nd one was a 12:41.
The big question: Can he win Olympic gold in his favorite event in what he says will be his final year on the track or has Father Time started to extend his undefeated streak?
Jacob Kiplimo – 23 years old – Uganda – 12:40.96 (2024)/26:33.93 (2021) pbs
BATHURST, AUSTRALIA – FEBRUARY 18: Jacob Kiplimo of Team Uganda celebrate with Joshua Cheptegei after finishing first in the Men’s Senior race during the 2023 World Cross Country Championships at Mount Panorama on February 18, 2023 in Bathurst, Australia. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images for World Athletics )
Why he will win gold: Kiplimo won the World XC title in 2023 and 2024. He’s the half marathon world record holder (57:31) as well. He’s in great form as in addition to winning World XC in March, he ran a 5000 pb of 12:40.96 in his last race in Oslo on May 30.
Why he won’t win gold? Kiplimo has run in the 12:40s four times in his career, but only won one of those races. Kiplimo’s strength is his strength, not his kick. He’s only got two global bronzes on his track XC (both in the 10,000 in 2021 and 2022).
The big question: Is he the new Distance King or is he the 2024 version of Paul Tergat?
Last year, we were wondering if Kiplimo was going to take over the unofficial King of Men’s Distance title that has gone from Haile G to Bekele to Farah to Cheptegei, but we didn’t get to find out as Kiplimo missed Worlds due to injury. This year, he’s been equally good so we finally get to find out. A win and he’s the new king. A loss and he’s the 2024 version of Paul Tergat — unbeatable in the half marathon and in XC, but unable to win on the track.
Yomif Kejelcha – 26 years old (turns 27 on Thursday) – Ethiopia – 12:38.95 pb (2024)/26:31.95 (2024) pbs
Cheptegei outkicking Kejelcha in 2019 (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Why he will win gold: Kejelcha enters Paris in the form of his life as he’s PRd in the 5,000 and 10,000 and won the Ethiopian trials in the 10,000. Plus he’s got good speed as he’s the world indoor record holder in the mile at 3:47.01.
Why he will win gold: Kejelcha has been to the Worlds/Olympics on six different occasions and only left with one medal (10,000 silver in 2019). Are we supposed to believe this is lucky #7?
The big question: Kejelcha always sports great pbs but has come up lacking when it’s time to win medals (let alone gold medals). Can he change that narrative in 2024?
Selemon Barega – 24 yearsold – Ethiopia – 12:43.02 (2018)/26:34.93 (2024) pbs
Why he will win gold: He’s the reigning Olympic champ and he’s in great form. After running a pb of 7:25.82 indoors in the 3k, he’s run two 5000s outdoors and won both of them — clocking 12:55.68 in Suzhou (April 27) and 12:51.60 in LA. The latter field was totally stacked and included Cheptegei, Kiplimo, and Berihu Aregawi.
Why he won’t win gold: While Barega did PR at the Ethiopian trials on June 14, he was only third in 26:34.93, more than three seconds behind Kejelcha and Aregawi (although our Jonathan Gault watched it and didn’t think Barega went all-out at the end. Watch the las last lap for yourself). Plus when he won Olympic gold in 2021, he ran 3:32 for 1500 indoors that year. This year in his lone 1500 he only ran 3:37.
The big question: Barega seems to be in better form in 2024 than 2023 (when he took bronze) as last year he didn’t break 12:56 in either of his two pre-Worlds 5000s, but will it be enough to win gold?
Unless you have inside information, it’s impossible to truly handicap the Big 4. Why? Because if you have been paying close attention, you’ll have noticed that none of them have raced in a long time. The two Ugandans haven’t raced since Oslo on May 30 and neither of the Ethiopians have raced since their trials on June 14. Whoever has had the best last 7-9 weeks is likely to be your winner.
Now, those aren’t the only guys that can medal in this race. If you are on the Ethiopian or Kenyan teams or if your name is Grant Fisher, you certainly have a shot at a medal. I just don’t think they’ll contend for the gold. Here are the other guys that can’t be totally discounted (in order of most likely to least likely to win gold).
Berihu Aregawi – The 23-year-old Ethiopian gave Kejelcha a battle at the Ethiopian trials (2nd in 26:31.13 to Kejelcha’s 26:31.01) but a win seems like a stretch considering he may be the greatest active distance runner to have never earned a global medal on the track. That being said, he’s been in fine form this year as in addition to finishing 2nd at the Ethiopian trials, he also was second at World XC for the second year in a row and second in the LA 5,000 behind Barega.
Grant Fisher – The 27-year-old American has three times finished in the top 6 in the world, with a best finish of 4th in the 10,000 in 2022. Indoors this year, he ran PBs at 2 miles (8:03.62 AR) and 5000 (12:51.84), but outdoors he was only 5th in LA in 12:53.30 (though he did run a 1500 pb of 3:34.90 in June. He also won his first US 10,000 title as well at the Trials.
Daniel Mateiko – The 25-year-old Kenyan is undefeated on the year having won the RAK Half in February in 58:45 and Pre Classic/Kenyan trials in 26:50.81, but he was only 8th in his only global track championship (2022 10,000). Gold for someone with a 13:13 5000 pb seems like a real stretch.
Nicholas Kimeli (also known as Nicholas Kipkorir) – The 25-year-old Kenyan was 4th in the 5000 in 2021 and 4th at world xc this year. The 25-year-old has a 12:46 5000 pb was 2nd at the Kenyan Trails this year.
Recently, a gambler paid Jonathan Gault and myself to handicap each of the track races at the 2024 Paris Olympics as he wanted to see if his internal numbers matched up with our numbers (all done independently of each other).
Here is how Jonathan and I independently ranked the gold medal odds for the 10,000.
| Jonathan Gault’s Odds | ||
| Entrant | Percent to win | American Odds |
| Barega | 27.00% | 270 |
| Cheptegei | 23.00% | 335 |
| Kejelcha | 20.00% | 400 |
| Kiplimo | 15.00% | 567 |
| Aregawi | 8.00% | 1150 |
| Mateiko | 5.00% | 1900 |
| Field | 2.00% | 4900 |
| 100.00% | ||
| Robert Johnson’s Odds | ||
| Entrant | Percent to win | American Odds |
| Cheptegei | 30.00% | 233 |
| Barega | 25.00% | 300 |
| Kiplimo | 20.00% | 400 |
| Kejelcha | 20.00% | 400 |
| Field | 5% | 1900 |
| 100% | ||
If you look at the various gambling sites, the only bet worth making is Barega. For example, you can get the defending champion Barega, who is undefeated at 5,000 on the year, at +700 on DraftKings in the US. That’s an implied win rate of just 12.50%. We both think it’s twice that.
LRC Prediction: I honestly do not know, but the more I think about it the more I don’t think Cheptegei’s odds are 50% greater than Kejelchas. Give us your thoughts on our forum:
