2024 Men’s Olympic Marathon: An Epic Race on An Epic Course – Kipchoge, Bekele & A Monstrous Hill

Nominally, the 2024 Olympic marathon is a race between 84 men, including spring marathon champions Alexander Mutiso (London) and Benson Kipruto (Tokyo), 42-year-old legend Kenenisa Bekele, and the marathon GOAT, Eliud Kipchoge, chasing an unprecedented Olympic three-peat.

But in reality, when the gun is fired on August 10, it could come down to 84 men against the Paris Olympic marathon course. Because elite marathoning has never seen anything like it before. From 14.2k to 20.3k, the course climbs 511 feet. That’s a climb nearly equal to the height of the Washington Monument (555 feet) compressed into just 3.8 miles.

In running terms, let’s compare it to the famously hilly Boston Marathon. The hilliest part of the Boston course, the 1.5-mile stretch between 19.25 and 20.75 miles, rises approximately 150 feet. The biggest hill in Paris climbs more than three times that much. If you compare the Paris hill just to Heartbeak Hill (roughly 20.25 to 20.75 miles in Boston), it’s the height of 6.2 of those.

There’s also another nasty climb at 27k, and some parts of the course reach a grade as steep as 16%.

“A challenge without precedent,” is how Tony Estanguet, the head of the Paris organizing committee, appropriately described it when the course was unveiled.

“It would be like taking Boston hills’ and sliding them to 16k mark, but even that pales in comparison to what these guys are going to be asked to do,” says two-time Olympic marathoner Ed Eyestone, coach of 2024 US Olympians Conner Mantz and Clayton Young. “I don’t think there’s really anything comparable outside of what some of the mountain runners hit.”

Whatever it is, some of the world’s best marathoners will have to tackle it on August 10. Here’s what you need to know.

The course is a bear

We’ll get into the main players in a minute, but first let’s talk a bit more about the course. Yes, it’s going to be incredibly tough. But it’s also going to be one of the coolest courses in Olympic history. Paris is one of the world’s most beautiful cities, and the out-and-back route hits several of the major attactions. The course goes right through the grounds of the Louvre and Tuileries during mile 3, there are multi-mile stretches along the Seine on the way out and the way back, and the Palace of Versailles serves as the turnaround point just past halfway. The runners will pass the Eiffel Tower for the second time with just two miles to go and the course finishes at Les Invalides, a spectacular complex of buildings that serves as a monument to French military history and the final resting place of Napoleon.

You’ve already pictured Kipchoge and Bekele battling it out for gold in the final miles. Now picture them doing it in the shadow of the Eiffel Tower. Just watch this course tour. I challenge you to not get ridiculously excited.

Seeing the sights is cool, but from a performance standpoint those massive uphills and downhills are what stand out. Boston and New York are known as the hilly World Marathon Majors, yet this course features nearly twice as much climbing as either of them. The biggest hill in NYC, the Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge at the very start of the race, climbs 160 feet in one mile. The big hill in Paris climbs 511 feet. The average grade of the Paris hill is not quite as steep as Verrazzano — Paris climbs 135 feet/mile — but the climb is nearly four times as long.

Here is a closer look at the elevation changes.

In terms of total climbing/descending, the best recent comparison may be the 2020 US Olympic Trials course in Atlanta, which featured a total gain of 1,389 feet and a total loss of 1,382 feet — comparable to Paris’ total gain of 1,437 feet and total loss of 1,430. The difference is, Atlanta was a loop course with the hills spread out across the entire 26.2 miles. Paris is out-and-back, with almost all of the elevation gain/loss confined to an 11-mile stretch in the middle of the race.

How will this affect the runners? It’s hard to say. Conventional wisdom suggests athletes who have succeeded on courses like NYC and Boston would have an advantage here, but none of the hills on those courses come close to one they will have to climb in Paris. The truth is, we don’t know how the athletes will respond because elite marathoners just are not exposed to this sort of hill in a race situation.

Dathan Ritzenhein, who finished 9th in the 2008 Olympic marathon in Beijing and now coaches Hellen Obiri, one of the favorites in the women’s race in Paris, ran the course earlier this year. He came away stunned by the severity of the hills.

“It’s hard to believe they’re even running up it and down it, at that point in the race too,” Ritzenhein told LetsRun.com. “Honestly I don’t think they’ll run faster than 8:00 on that mile [in the women’s race], even at the front…[The hills are] gonna make the race, for sure. It might be the fittest people, but it’s also going to be the people who can manage the course will be the winners.”

The Crazy 20th Mile — Might It Be Sub-4 For The Men?

We had LetsRun.com’s statistics expert John Kellogg — a lifelong coach who has a masters degree in mathematics — take a closer look at the elevation changes on the Paris course. On a shorter hill with a regular grade, he believes every 10 feet of elevation gain slows you down by 2.5 seconds and every 10 feet of elevation loss helps you by 1.8 seconds. So that would mean the course would run at least 1:45 slower than flat course.

But Kellogg wants to make sure that people understand that since portions of the course feature some double-digit grades both in the up and down direction that his formula does not apply — it should be much slower than that 1:45 figure. JK’s approximation also does not account for the cumulative impact of the ups and downs. In reality, the course could run 3:30-4:00 slower than a flat race — and that’s before you account for the warm weather for an August race.

We’re not sure if Olympic organizers are going to give mile-by-mile splits, but if they do take a look at the 20th mile. Between mile 19 and 20 (30.57 km to 32.18 km), the course drops roughly 100 meters. That is 328 feet, which would be worth nearly a minute according to JK. So theoretically, a sub-4:00 mile would be possible although we think the runners will have to be putting the brakes on to not destroy their quads since it’s greater than a 6 percent downhill grade. A sub-2:30 km split certainly would not surprise us (4-minute mile pace is 2:29.16 km pace).

(LRC editor’s note: Members of the media, if you talk beforehand of the possibility of a sub-4 mile or sub-2:30 km because you read this article, please give a shout out to LetsRun.com).

If we get hot weather on August 10, the race could conjure memories of another Olympic race held in Paris. At the 1924 Olympics, the men’s cross country race was so hot and the course so brutally tough that only 15 of the 39 starters finished the race and cross country was never held again at the Olympics (recently, Dave Devine wrote an awesome story on the race, including US bronze medalist Earl Johnson).

The hills in Paris also bring to mind the hilliest cross country course we’ve ever seen — the 2019 World XC course in Aarhus. But it’s worth noting that, despite the grueling conditions, the winners at both the 1924 Olympic XC race (Paavo Nurmi) and 2019 World XC (Joshua Cheptegei/Hellen Obiri) were the same athletes you’d expect to have won in a flat track race in perfect conditions. It helps to be good on hills when racing on a challenging course. But, as in any race, being the fittest athlete in the field is usually the biggest advantage you can have.

Is Kipchoge still the man?

There were whispers heading into the last Olympic marathon in Sapporo that Eliud Kipchoge, at 36, might be starting to decline. A year earlier, he had finished 8th at the London Marathon, his first defeat in more than seven years, citing an ear blockage. But Kipchoge was as good as ever in Japan, winning his second straight gold medal by 80 seconds — the largest Olympic margin of victory since Frank Shorter in 1972.

This time around, there are more than just whispers about Kipchoge’s decline. While he is still among the best marathoners in the world — he is less than two years removed from setting a world record and less than a year removed from his last major win in Berlin — Kipchoge will enter Paris more vulnerable than ever.

In his most recent marathon in Tokyo, Kipchoge finished 10th in 2:06:50, his lowest finish of his career and more than four minutes behind winner Benson Kipruto. Kipchoge said afterwards he did not sleep well for three days prior to the race and was stressed by threats from online trolls falsely linking Kipchoge to the death of world record holder Kelvin Kiptum.

“When you run a strong marathon you need both the physical part and the mental part need to come together,” Kipchoge’s longtime agent Valentijn Trouw told LetsRun.com. “I think the physical part was very ready [in Tokyo], but mentally there were some challenges around that time.”

Kipchoge also has no history of success on hilly courses. He has only run one — Boston in 2023 — and it did not go well. At the time, Kipchoge said he did not adjust his training at all to account for Boston’s unique course, instead relying on the playbook that had brought him so many marathon victories in the past. Kipchoge wound up 6th after getting broken in the Newton Hills.

Trouw acknowledged that the Boston result was not what Kipchoge was looking for but also told LetsRun.com that Kipchoge’s training regimen is not as rigid as Kipchoge had suggested. Trouw said 80-90% of the training is the same from build to build but that Kipchoge’s coach Patrick Sang does make adjustments for the specific race they are preparing for, and that will be the case for Paris.

“We have been on the Paris course, we know the challenge,” Trouw said. “And I think Eliud and Patrick Sang, the way Patrick has prepared Eliud, he is ready for this challenge.”

With a victory in Paris, Kipchoge would make all sorts of history. He’d be the first person to win three Olympic marathon titles and, at 39, he’d be the oldest person to win Olympic gold in any running event. He’d also accomplish the one thing he has not been able to so far in his decorated career: win on a hilly course.

But for once, the odds are against Kipchoge. So if he is not the favorite, who is?

Who is the favorite?

Before we answer that question, let’s address the elephant in the room. Kenya’s Kelvin Kiptum, who took the marathon world by storm in 2023, would have been the favorite for this race had he not died in a car crash in February at the age of 24. Kiptum broke Kipchoge’s world record by running 2:00:35 in Chicago in his last race in October, and one of the many tragedies of his death is that we will never get to see him compete on the Olympic stage.

Of the men who will be competing in Paris, it is difficult to crown one favorite. Ethiopia’s Sisay Lemma probably would have deserved that status on paper as he is coming off back-to-back incredible marathons: a 2:01:48 victory in Valencia in December (#4 all-time) followed by a win in Boston in April. But Lemma’s agent Gianni Demadonna confirmed to LetsRun.com on July 26 that Lemma will not run the Olympics due to a hamstring injury and will be replaced by Tamirat Tola.

Tola does not become the immediate favorite, but he has a formidable track record. He was the 2016 Olympic 10,000 bronze medalist, has earned silver (2017) and gold (2022) medals in the World Championship marathon, and last fall blasted a 2:04:58 in New York to break Geoffrey Mutai‘s legendary course record.

The risk with Tola is that he has dropped out of two of his last three marathons — the 2023 Worlds in Budapest and 2024 London in April. And Ethiopia has a horrible recent record in the Olympic marathon. Across the last three Olympic marathons, seven of the nine Ethiopian men have dropped out, including all three in 2012 and 2021.

The other two spring 2024 marathon champions should also be serious factors. Kenya’s Benson Kipruto has won three majors in the last three years (2021 Boston, 2022 Chicago, 2024 Tokyo) and enters as the fastest man of 2024 thanks to his 2:02:16 in Tokyo. Meanwhile his compatriot, London champ Alexander Mutiso, has never finished off the podium since making his debut two years ago, notching the following results: 3rd 2022 Valencia (2:03:29), 1st 2023 Prague (2:05:09), 2nd 2023 Valencia (2:03:11), 1st 2024 London (2:04:01). Timothy Kiplagat (2nd in Tokyo in 2:02:55) is the third Kenyan, while Deresa Geleta (wins at 2023 Beijing and 2024 Seville) is the second Ethiopian (we’ll get to the third in a minute).

Uganda’s Victor Kiplangat is another name to know. His pb is only 2:05:09, and he was only 15th in Tokyo in March, but he has a terrific track record in championship marathons, winning gold at the 2022 Commonwealth Games and 2023 Worlds. Plus Ugandans are typically great on the hills, and Kiplangat was the world mountain running champion in 2017. If anyone is equipped to handle the hills in Paris, it’s this guy.

Three years ago, training partners Abdi Nageeye of the Netherlands and Bashir Abdi of Belgium surprised by going 2-3 at the Olympics behind Kipchoge. Since then, Abdi has been incredibly consistent, finishing in the top four in all six of his marathons, including wins in Rotterdam in 2021 and 2023. Nageeye won Rotterdam in April in a pb of 2:04:45. Both men should be in the medal mix again in Paris.

And then there is Kenenisa Bekele. The three-time Olympic champion on the track has a lot working against him. He is 42 years old. He has not won a marathon since 2019. Bekele has struggled for consistency throughout his marathon career, and Paris will be his third marathon in nine months. He is a long shot for gold.

But at least Bekele has a shot, which is far more than most expected a year ago. After winning the Olympic 5,000 at Athens 2004 and the 5,000/10,000 double at Beijing 2008, Bekele was 4th in the 10,000 at London 2012, then failed to make the Ethiopian team for Rio 2016 or Tokyo 2020. At that point, his dream of a fourth Olympic Games appeared to be extinguished, and while Bekele churned out a 2:06 in Berlin and a 2:05 in London in the ensuing years, it would take more than that to make the Ethiopian Olympic team.

Yet somehow, Bekele ran back-to-back masters world records of 2:04:19 at 2023 Valencia (4th overall) and 2:04:15 at 2024 London (2nd), leading the latter race into the final five miles. That was enough to put Bekele on the team.

Bekele is already a legend, and should he somehow win the Olympic marathon at the age of 42, it would go down as one of the most incredible achievements not just in running, but in all of sports (we explain more in detail here). It probably won’t happen. But if you’re a Bekele fan, just seeing him on the start line, dreaming of one last Olympic gold, will conjure up feelings of hope and anticipation that most assumed would never return.

That covers the main contenders, but the hot weather of the Olympic marathon means there is usually at least one surprise on the podium. And even if the weather isn’t as big a factor as usual (the recent highs in Paris haven’t gone much beyond 80), the hill is still a massive unknown. Don’t be shocked if someone that we did not mention ends up medaling.

The Americans

After four months of purgatory, the US will officially be sending the maximum three men to the Olympic marathon: Conner Mantz, Clayton Young, and Leonard Korir.

Mantz and Young have been very good by US standards in their last two marathons, both running pbs in Chicago in October (2:07:47 for Mantz, 2:08:00 for Young) before going 1-2 at the Trials in Orlando in February. If the Olympics were a rabbitted race like Chicago, neither would have a shot at the podium — both were more than three minutes behind 3rd in Chicago — but the unique dynamics of the Olympics means that the Americans can at least dream of a medal in Paris.

“Heat can be a great leveling effect and a real challenging course can also do that,” Eyestone said. “I don’t think it’s a bad thing for my guys.”

That said, Eyestone is not underplaying the challenge the Americans face in Paris. He acknowledged that grind of hitting the Olympic standard in Chicago and qualifying at the Trials took a lot out of them.

“Quite frankly they were a little bit beat up following those back-to-back races, so I think it took them a bit longer to get to a place where they felt during this build they were hitting on all cylinders,” Eyestone said. “We like to have a 16-week build and I think when they came into the start of that 16-week build, they’d had some issues both of them with sore quadriceps and sore Achilles and whatnot that we had to be careful about.”

Eyestone has been pleased with the progress Mantz and Young have made since then, with the two gaining fitness each week, and they’ve made hills a regular staple of their training, trying to hit a hill session at least every 10 days to prepare for the climbs in Paris.

At least one American man has finished in the top 10 in every Olympic marathon since Athens 2004, and Eyestone, who coached Jared Ward to 6th in Rio in 2016, believes that outcome is possible for Mantz and Young in Paris if they have a great day.

“Anything in that ballpark is a big win,” Eyestone said.

Korir, who ran an extra marathon after the Trials (Rotterdam in April) to try to hit the Olympic standard, may have a harder time recovering for Paris than his American teammates. But the important thing for the 37-year-old is that he made it to the Olympics, four years after missing out by one place at the 2020 Trials.

Editor’s note: This article was updated on July 26 to reflect the withdrawal of Ethiopia’s Tamirat Tola.