Olympic Trials Week 2 Preview: Is It Kelati’s Year? New Faces in Steeple, Can Fisher or Hocker Complete the Double?

After a two-day break, the 2024 US Olympic Trials resume on Thursday with the final four days of action. In this article, we preview the five remaining distance events: the men’s 800 and 5,000, and the women’s 1500, 10,000, and steeplechase.

Men’s 800: Does Hoppel’s momentum continue?

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Back in 2020, it looked like the U.S. had a real shot to get their first Olympic gold medal in the men’s 800 since Dave Wottle in 1972. Donavan Brazier, the reigning world champ, was in the midst of an undefeated season and was ranked number one in the world but then COVID delayed the Olympics, Brazier finished last in the Olympic Trials on a broken foot and has barely been able to race since then. In his place, Bryce Hoppel has become the dominant force in US 800-meter running while a new crop of mid-d stars has risen up, trying to displace veterans like Isaiah Harris and Clayton Murphy who have made teams in the past.

Top entrants (Full entries here)

Athletes with the 1:44.70 Olympic standard are bolded while athletes high enough in the world rankings quota are italicized. 

Guys Who Made Teams Before

There is a lot of experience in this group with five men that have made teams in the last three years. The new big fish in the pond in the past few years has been Bryce Hoppel. Hoppel has won the last two U.S. outdoor championships and is the four-time reigning U.S. indoor champion. He has leveled up this year, in part due to a three-month altitude stint in Flagstaff and a new collaboration with the Very Nice Track Club. He won the world indoors this year and has only lost once outdoors, to Algerian star Djamel Sedjati. Simply put he has been amazing the last few years and has a chance to win a medal in Paris if things go right.

Another runner that has recently made a training change and has been rewarded is Brandon Miller, who moved from Bobby Kersee to the Brooks Beasts back in late 2023. His 2023 season was a bit rocky as he did not make the finals at USA’s in 2023 after getting third in 2022, but he has come back in a major way this year running 1:44.24 and taking .73 off his PB. Someone who has perhaps helped Miller make this jump is training partner Isaiah Harris. Harris was fourth at the last trials but has made two U.S outdoor teams, finishing second last year.

You also have 2021 Olympian Isaiah Jewett, who has had a bit of a bumpy ride since then, not making either U.S. outdoor team since and finishing 4th last year. He has been inconsistent this year, running four races with only one being under 1:45, a massive 1:44.02 at the LA Grand Prix for his fastest time since 2021. If he shows up on the day he will be firmly in the mix. The last man who has experience making U.S. teams is 2016 Olympic bronze medalist Clayton Murphy. Murphy made the last U.S. Olympic team by winning the Trials and would go on to make the Olympic final. He was third last year at USA’s but was knocked out in the first round at Worlds. Murphy has not had an amazing year of racing so far, failing to break 1:45 this year in four attempts. When he raced the above four athletes at the LA Grand Prix he was DFL by over two seconds and lost by over three seconds to all four. 

The Potential New Blood 

In an event as volatile as the 800, there is always a chance for some new blood to sneak on the team. One main candidate is recent NCAA champion of Virginia, Shane Cohen, who transferred in from D2 Tampa to take three seconds off his 800 PB in one year, and won NCAA’s in spectacular fashion. He has been compared to Robby Andrews, who also ran for Virginia and won his NCAA title in similar fashion and rode the momentum all the way to the U.S. final that year. You have the man that Cohen narrowly beat in Sam Whitmarsh of Texas A&M, who was the NCAA leader and was thrilled to get silver after coming back from a heart condition that required surgery just a few years ago.

Another NCAA runner to look out for is freshman prodigy Tinoda Matsatsa. After not making the NCAA meet, Matsatsa went to the Penn Relays Summer Showcase and blasted a 1:45.17 to take more than a second off his PB. He is supremely talented running 3:58.70 for the mile as a high schooler and one more jump could be enough for him to sneak a spot on the team. The last noteworthy entry is Hobbs Kessler, who is already on the Olympic team after running a pb of 3:31 to finish 3rd in the 1500 on Monday. He is one of the more talented runners in the field but has been widely criticized for his poor tactics, like at the LA Grand Prix where he made a questionable pass on the inside to win the B heat of the 800 and get his qualifying time of 1:45.07. 

Joseph’s Pick

Hoppel showed he was one of the best in the world indoors and will do so again here. The other two spots go to men who have been here before and know how to navigate the rounds.  

1. Bryce Hoppel
2. Brandon Miller 
3. Isaiah Jewett

Women’s 1500: Can Elle St. Pierre Reclaim Her Title?

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This is an event that has very little turnover from the last Trials. All three 2021 Olympians — Elle St. Pierre, Cory McGee and Heather MacLean — are on the startlists for this year. In addition, we have entrants who were at the last Trials but were in the backend of the final such as Nikki Hiltz and Dani Jones, who will play a much more prominent role this time around.  

Top entrants (Full entries here)

Athletes with the 4:02.50 Olympic standard are bolded while athletes high enough in the world rankings quota are italicized. 

The 2021 Team 

Is there a chance to get the band back together? It is not totally out of the question. 2021 Trials champion Elle St. Pierre has a great chance to win again. St.Pierre, who was 10th in the last Olympic final in Tokyo, welcomed a son in March 2023 and her return to the circuit has been nothing short of spectacular. She won the world indoors in the 3k this year in an American record of 8:20.87. She would then go to Pre to run a blazing fast 3:56.00 (#2 all-time among Americans) and a 14:34.12 5k to win at the LA Grand Prix. She won the last Trials, just won the U.S 5,000 title, and there is no reason that she should not win again this year.

Another member of the 2021 team (and 2022 and 2023) that has been running well recently is Cory McGee. McGee made the team last year and rode that momentum all the way to the World Championship final, where she finished 10th. This year she is in a similar spot to where she was last year and has run 4:02 twice this season. The last member of the 2021 team is Heather MacLean, who has had a bit more of a rocky path than her other fellow Olympians. MacLean had a great 2022 where she ran 3:58.76 and made the world indoor final but was not able to replicate that success either of the last two seasons. She was 7th at USA’s last year and has failed to break 4:02 this year but is trending up with a 1:58.77 pb in her last meet at the Adrian Martinez Classic on June 8.

Former U.S. Champs 

In addition to St. Pierre, there is a plethora of former U.S. champs in this race. The most decorated of the three is Elise Cranny, who is coming off of an epic duel with ESP in the 5k. Cranny was the three-time reigning 5k champion and also won the 10k at USA’s last year. She is coming from a massive strength base, so if anything the rounds help her. She has shown the ability to consistently go under 4:00 and holds an impressive 4:16.47 mile PR from last year — faster than any runner in US history not named Nikki Hiltz or Elle St. Pierre.

The next big player Hiltz, who leveled up last year by winning her first U.S. title on the track over many of the people who will be back in the final this year. Hiltz has arguably been even better this year winning a U.S. indoor title and then getting second at world indoors behind 3:55 runner Freweyni Hailu. Hiltz has been running extremely well outdoors and finished 5th at Pre running 3:59.64 and has been working on speed, running a 400 and some 800s as well. The last U.S. champ is Sinclaire Johnson, who won back in 2022. Since then it has been a bit of a mixed bag for Johnson, who has run some quick times but not been able to translate that to championship success, finishing fourth last year and getting knocked out in the semis at Worlds (she made the team after Athing Mu opted for the 800 onlu). She has ran 4:00 twice this year however and looks in a better spot than last year heading into USA’s. 

Big Kickers 

These are two women who have particularly good kicks and could be extremely dangerous in a tactical race. The first is the young star, Addy Wiley. Wiley was 5th in the 1500 at USAs last year as a 19-year-old but has not been in the same form in 2024 and did not make the final in the 800 earlier in the Trials. Perhaps the woman with the best kick in the field however is Emily Mackay. In her first year as a pro in 2023, she finished 8th at USA’s and went on to sneak under 4:00 by running 3:59.99 in France. In 2024, she has been even better, finishing third in the 1500 at world indoors and then running 3:59.76 to finish 6th at Pre–just behind Nikki Hiltz. The biggest surprise of all was when she dropped a then US-leading 1:57.87 800 at the Adrian Martinez Classic, showing that she can kick with anyone in the field.

Experienced Veterans

These women will be thrilled if they can snag one of the last spots on the team. They will most likely not be competing for the win but deserve a mention. Former NCAA XC champ Dani Jones of Team Boss has ran a pb of 4:00.64 this year and Helen Schlachtenhaufen has run 1:59.97 this year and finished 6th in the 1500 last year. 

Joseph’s Pick

I think with her new strength that Elle St. Pierre makes this a time trial. Hiltz and Mackay have been neck and neck with each other in every race and I think that they are again here. Elise Cranny has looked great this year but does not have a lot of experience in the 1500 these last few years. 

1.Elle St. Pierre
2. Nikki Hiltz
3. Emily Mackay

Women’s Steeple: What does the team look like?

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One of the events with the most turnover from the last Trials is the women’s steeple. Let’s take a look at who made the team last time and where they are now. 

Emma Coburn
Then: 2021 trials winner, made Olympic final before falling and getting DQ’d
Now: Broke her ankle in Shanghai and is out of the trials

Courtney Frerichs
Then: 2nd place at the trials, silver medal in Tokyo
Now: Tore ACL in practice and is out of the Trials 

Valerie Constien
Then: Third at Trials, 12th in final in Tokyo
Now: Quickest seed time in trials after tearing ACL in Doha last year, only finished 8th at USA’s in 2022

There is a real possibility that there will be an entirely new group of women representing the U.S. in this event, and at a minimum, we will have two new members that we are sending to Paris.

Top entrants (Full entries here)

Athletes with the 9:23.00 Olympic standard are bolded while athletes high enough in the world rankings quota are italicized.

Been there, done that…

The first woman that comes to mind when we talk about experience is Valerie Constien. She is the only one who made the team back in 2021 and is returning and looks to be better than ever. After an injury took her out for the 2023 season she came back this year at Pre Classic to drop a monster 9:14.29 to get 5th in a field that included some of the world’s best. More importantly, she was the top American in a race with the next two women that we are about to discuss.

Courtney Wayment was a young gun back in 2021, coming off a poor performance at NCAA’s where she finished fourth, and almost made the team finishing fourth again at USA’s. Since then she has finished second and third at USA’s and 12th and 15th in the final at Worlds. This year she has run 9:14.48 for a solid 6th place finish at Pre Classic and looks fit as ever running a 14:49.78 5k PR at BU back in January. The third woman that was in that race was someone who also narrowly missed a U.S. team back in 2022, Gabrielle Jennings. She finished behind both Constien and Wayment but has been consistent this year running 9:18.03 at Pre and 9:19.59 in Suzhou. 

The Young Guns 

The group of women that will challenge the three experienced vets above were all in their college uniform representing their team at NCAA’s in the last few years. The first person in this group is 2023 USA champ Krissy Gear. Why would we wait this long to write about last year’s champ? Well to be frank, Gear has not run as well as she did last year. Last year’s US final is the only time she has EVER broken 9:24 and this year she got absolutely worked by the top Americans at Pre Classic running 9:24.42, finishing fifth out of the five Americans that finished the race, and was not competitive. Gear needed a time qualifier to make the Trials final and has an uphill battle to make the team.

Kaylee Mitchell, who joined Bowerman TC from Oregon State this year, was three seconds ahead of Gear at Pre in a pb of 9:21.00. Running a pb early in the season is a good sign as Mitchell is someone who usually comes on late in the season and is being coached by Jerry Schumacher, who has a knack for putting steeplers on U.S teams. The last woman that needs to be talked about is recent NCAA second placer and 2023 NCAA champion Olivia Markezich of Notre Dame and now the On Athletics Club. She looks great this year and ran 9:17.36 at a hot Hayward Field to pb at NCAAs. She was just one spot off the team last year and has looked even better this year finishing third at NCAA cross and second behind Parker Valby in the 3k indoors. 

Joseph’s Pick

Wayment and Constien will battle it out for the win and there will be a mad dash for the third and final spot. 

1. Courtney Wayment 
2. Val Constien 
3. Olivia Markezich

Mens 5,000: Can Fisher or Hocker complete the double? Do Kincaid, Nur, and McGorty arrive on time? 

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The men’s 5,000 at the upcoming Olympic Trials will spare no star power, boasting eight men with the Olympic standard (13:05.00), the most of any men’s distance event at the meet. Leading the charge is Nike’s Grant Fisher, who will look to complete the 5k/10k double at the U.S. championships for the first time in his career (he lost both in 2021 and lost the 10k in 2022). The former Jerry Schumacher protege has run well since leaving Bowerman TC, clocking 12:53.30 and 26:52.04 this outdoor season, and will look to reclaim the U.S. 5k title en route to his pursuit of a global medal.

Top entrants (Full entries here)

Athletes with the 13:05.00 standard are bolded while athletes high enough in the world rankings quota are italicized.

The U.S. Champs

While Fisher offers the United States’ best shot at a medal over this distance, he will first have to worry about winning the race. Alongside Fisher are three different U.S. champs over 5k/10k in Abdihamid Nur, Paul Chelimo, and Woody Kincaid. Despite boasting the status of a U.S. champ, Nur has not been amazing this season–he faltered over the final five laps at The TEN in March, clocking 27:17 (though that was still a big pb) and only ran 3:38 at the NYC Grand Prix in his final race before the Trials. With that being said, he posted a 13:04 at the USATF LA Grand Prix from the B heat, looking comfortable in an attempt to practice tactics and closing hard.

Even at the twilight of his career, Chelimo is to be taken seriously on the national stage. Despite a poor showing in the 10,000, the 33-year-old is a 2x Olympic medallist and bounced back to make the U.S. team last year after finishing eleventh in 2022. At The TEN in March, Kincaid ran himself into #6 on the U.S. all-time list, clocking 26:57.57, and qualified for his second Olympic team over 10,000 meters on June 21. The 2021 Olympian has a sick kick that he has showcased across numerous races and different paces. If he’s close at the bell, watch out.

Moving up in distance

Cole Hocker and Cooper Teare were two of the top three entrants in the men’s 1500–one came away with his second U.S. title (Hocker), the other finished in tenth (Teare). Despite a stark difference in their result on Monday, they’ll both be highly motivated to run their way onto this 5,000-meter team. Training partners Teare and Hocker have been a bright spot in U.S. distance running since their rise to the professional ranks and just recently clocked 12:54 and 12:58 at the LA Grand Prix, respectively. Like Kincaid, Hocker has a sick kick and is surely a factor in a U.S. championship-style race.

The rest of the field

There are a few notable players in this field that have gone unmentioned thus far, including the NCAA champ Parker Wolfe of UNC. 2018 NCAA champ Sean McGorty, who has held steadfast at Bowerman TC, is a factor in championship races, having qualified at the past two U.S. champs (the 10k in 2022 and 5k/10k in 2023). However, McGorty has raced sparingly this season–in fact not at all, his only result is a DNF at the Oregon Twilight in May. The last athlete in the field with the Olympic standard is Harvard’s Graham Blanks, who ran 13:03 (formerly the NCAA record) at BU in December but was only 5th at NCAA’s after missing time due to an injury this winter.

It’s of note that Nur, McGorty, and Blanks are the only athletes with the standard that are participating in only the 5,000, so they will be fresh.

Harper’s Pick

Fisher and Kincaid turn back the clock to 2021, this time without Chelimo. Cole Hocker finds himself in a position to qualify for his second team of the Trials and uses a big kick to nab the final spot.

1. Grant Fisher
2. Woody Kincaid
3. Cole Hocker

Women’s 10,000: Can Kelati get it done? What does the race look like without Cranny & Monson?

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The 2024 U.S. Olympic 10,000-meter team will look a little different than it did three years ago. Bowerman TC’s Karissa Schweizer is the only woman returning from the 2021 team to compete at this distance and has just begun to trend in the right direction after undergoing Haglund’s surgery in late 2023. 

Top entrants (Full entries here)

Athletes with the 30:40.00 standard are bolded while athletes high enough in the world rankings quota are italicized.

Is it Kelati’s year?

Since turning professional in late 2020, Weini Kelati has shown immense promise over longer distances but has fallen short of making a U.S. outdoor team (fourth place multiple times). This time around she’s in a peculiar situation as she finds herself being the only woman with the Olympic standard, having run 30:33.82 at The TEN in March. Alongside her, Katie Izzo sits in the driver’s seat of her Olympic destiny–Izzo is currently qualified for the Olympics through cross-country ranking. Aside from these two women, no one finds themselves in a position to qualify for the Olympics heading into this race. Adidas’ Elly Henes sits just outside the Road to Paris rankings; just nine points short of being in Olympic qualifying position, meaning she could end up qualifying if she runs fast at the Trials or someone from another country scratches. Similarly, Natosha Rogers of Alistair Cragg’s Puma Elite team sits just outside the qualifying spots in the Road to Paris and Florida’s Parker Valby can move into contention if she runs fast in Eugene.

Who else? Why else?

It’s hard to imagine a world where Weini Kelati doesn’t qualify for this summer’s Olympics, but, it’s not as hard to imagine her missing the podium at the Olympic Trials. Aside from Elly Henes and Natosha Rogers, there are a handful of women who stand in the way of Kelati’s first-ever podium finish. Back from Haglund’s surgery, Karissa Schweizer has been trending in the right direction, posting a 14:48.60 at the Portland Track Festival two weeks ago and qualifying for the Olympics as a member of the 5,000-meter team earlier this week–her championship experience cannot be discounted. The talent of Parker Valby cannot be discounted –despite this U.S. championship being her first taste of competition against the country’s best, she will run to win, qualify, and probably run fast. Her path to a podium finish may be more manageable as she’ll have the opportunity to draw the race out from further–the 5,000 final on Monday made us acutely aware of her ability to kick against the pros, and it’s not very good at the moment.

At The TEN in March, Keira D’Amato ran 31:05.31, good for the seventh-fastest entry mark in this race. She’ll be hoping to mix it up at the front similar to how Conner Mantz did in the men’s 10k, but her last race before the Trials did not go well as she DNF’d the Night of the 10,000m PBs in London on May 18. Under the tutelage of her husband, NAU coach Mike Smith, Rachel Smith has put together a strong season since giving birth in April 2023, clocking 31:04.02 ahead of Schweizer, Henes, and D’Amato at The TEN.

Harper’s Prediction

If there were questions about Karissa Schweizer’s health ahead of the 5,000 final, she put them to rest, running 14:45.12 for bronze. In a field with less star power up front, I expect her to run away and win her second U.S. title over the distance. Kelati will offer Schweizer the biggest challenge and hold on for second place. Parker Valby will capitalize on the less star-studded field to hold on for a podium finish.

1. Karissa Schweizer
2. Weini Kelati
3. Parker Valby