What are the odds the Boston Marathon actually takes place in September?

Guywithaquestion wrote:

With guidelines released today, do you think the Boston Marathon will happen in September?

It doesn’t seem likely, but I truly have no idea. With the three phases rolled out, it seems like races with 30,000+ people will be the last thing to return, and will only return when a state has left phase 3. I hope I have it wrong.

Maybe we will move towards focusing on smaller races at some point though, that restrict participation to local residents.

It's 50/50 at this point. I thought it was laughable when they postponed and gladly took the refund.

I now agree with the posts I've read here over the years blasting the BAA and the race in general. This was supposed to be my first time and I'm turned off to the whole thing.

My guess is we will be in phase 2 of reopening & there will be no large gatherings more than 10 people. Thus it won’t happen.

It's game over, man! Game over!

Guywithaquestion wrote:

With guidelines released today, do you think the Boston Marathon will happen in September?

There will not be a single race this year. No road races, no XC season.

Pvt Hudson wrote:

It's game over, man! Game over!

Hudson. Give us a break.

Maybe an elite only race, you can't possibly keep 6 ft apart on any marathon course.

most likely cancelled

No way. Zero chance for 2020.

Hate to admit it but I think Boston is toast this year.On March 13th the BAA stated a detailed e-mail would be forthcoming outlining all aspects of the revised schedule. Other than an e-mail from BAA asking if we wanted a full refund we've not received any actual updates on the race like where the expo will be (The Hynes Convention Center is typically book all year), when bib numbers / corral positions will be announce etc.

No Berlin, no Boston, no London, no Chicago. Probably no NYC. Likely no Valencia and Fukuoka. Maybe no Dubai or Osaka. Tokyo, Nagoya elite only. Iffy beyond that.

there was I wrote:

No Berlin, no Boston, no London, no Chicago. Probably no NYC. Likely no Valencia and Fukuoka. Maybe no Dubai or Osaka. Tokyo, Nagoya elite only. Iffy beyond that.

I was thinking about this yesterday as if I was an agent. I was thinking, "I'd want to sign my athlete up with the race most likely to have an elite pro race."

For the fall, I think it's London (they have the money and might hold an elite only race. I think there is a close to zero chance Boston holds an elite only race) or NY - as it's the latest.

Zero odds

rojo wrote:

I was thinking about this yesterday as if I was an agent. I was thinking, "I'd want to sign my athlete up with the race most likely to have an elite pro race."

For the fall, I think it's London (they have the money and might hold an elite only race. I think there is a close to zero chance Boston holds an elite only race) or NY - as it's the latest.

London doesn't count for the Olympics. It's meaningless as an elite-only race. I'd bet on Fukuoka and Valencia over it.

To the poster complaining about no updated information - It is only April and the new date is 5 months away. This is the equivalent of November for the usual marathon timeline. Chill out for a moment.

Longer term, I don't see how Boston, Hopkinton, and any of the 6 other cities and towns on the route will be equipped to welcome 35,000 runners and hundreds of thousands, or millions of spectators. We'll be lucky if we are even allowed to sit inside a restaurant in June.

And those same cities and towns won't shut everything down for a pro-only race. Nor can the BAA afford to pay them just to have that race.

Until there's a vaccine, there will be too much risk with permitting extremely large gatherings.

They’ve posted a lot of info on their FAQ

Thoughts on smaller races? I am signed up for a small marathon (~700 finishers) in upstate NY in mid October.

BAA is playing Russian roulette, then inevitably of cancellation.

rojo wrote:

there was I wrote:

No Berlin, no Boston, no London, no Chicago. Probably no NYC. Likely no Valencia and Fukuoka. Maybe no Dubai or Osaka. Tokyo, Nagoya elite only. Iffy beyond that.

I was thinking about this yesterday as if I was an agent. I was thinking, "I'd want to sign my athlete up with the race most likely to have an elite pro race."

For the fall, I think it's London (they have the money and might hold an elite only race. I think there is a close to zero chance Boston holds an elite only race) or NY - as it's the latest.

I agree here, and am actually surprised by the amount of optimism (though less so on this thread) I see in the running community about these September/October events.

To expect 75,000 athletes - almost none of them native to that region where the race is held - to come to a race is nearly unthinkable for something that needs to be ready to go by summer's end. It's actually an even harder case to make than sports where, theoretically, you're drawing mostly local fans. The World Marathon Majors (and most similarly-sized races) necessitate travel. We just won't be there by September or October.

I'm bummed - I had really hoped to smash a PR or two this year - but I think I'll be lucky to lace up for a Turkey Trot.

trolero wrote:

BAA is playing Russian roulette, the inevitably of cancellation.

Fixed