Just read this article:
Bumbi's run 13:12 and 27:56. I bet he can go sub-62. It seems unlikely that he makes the team at 5000 in 2016. Could 26.2 be his best bet?
I think training for the marathon pretty much benefits everyone. He should do th Marathon Trials in 2016 and if that doesn't work out try again in the 5/10.
eh. he doesn't strike me as a long distance guy - I'm thinking 62:30
64:03
Bumbi is always so close at USA and Olympic trials but there's always a few guys that are just at that next level. Would love to see him get that big win. The longer distances could be the ticket. I hope he crushes it tomorrow.
agip wrote:
eh. he doesn't strike me as a long distance guy - I'm thinking 62:30
62:14... he seems to hang on well in races, and rarely crashes. I feel like he could put together a solid, but not overly impressive race.
When you're not competitive on the track, move to the roads and the marathon. Hopefully this is a sign that he is finally realizing that. USA marathon runners are practically on life support, as long as he just can't use fat as fuel and hits the wall hard at 20, he should totally be able to make the olympic marathon team.
I am on the fence. On the one hand, he has had some success in US 5000 champion races and struggled in his one attempt at the 10000 (although a 27:56 in literally the only attempt isn't THAT bad, I believe he crashed pretty hard and fell off pace pretty badly).
On the other hand, I believe he paced Bairu on his qualifier attempt in the marathon and came through the half marathon in 65 or so before continuing on for a a few miles, and it wasn't a race effort for him, I don't think (I'm going off memory from word on the street; I don't have insider information). Also, the only more talented US marathoners at this point, in my opinion, are Meb, Hall (who might be done, pending this weekend's race), and Ritz (who is also old and maybe on the downward trajectory).
I had pictured Derrick as the next top US marathoner, and he might be, but I suppose there is room for more than one at the top. Meb will slow down eventually, Hall might be done, and Ritz is a wild card going forward. In 2016, and certainly 2020, if Bumbalough shows some aptitude, it could be him and Derrick at the top.
I don't mean any disrespect to some of the other current solid marathoners, like Eggleston, but Meb, Hall, Ritz, Derrick, Bumbi have a distance pedigree dating back to middle school that the others simply do not. So naturally Bumbi's potential, and Derrick's, has to be considered higher until proven otherwise.
I say 62-64. It is a first attempt, after all. I think his best bet might be to move to the 10000, though. At the 5000, it looks like Rupp is there to stay at least through 5000. Hill appears to be made for at least US championship 5000s. He and Jager are a toss up IMO at that distance. Lomong has his number (better kick and equal or greater strength). True might have his number for now. It's just too competitive. He's good, but his odds at the 5000, IMO, will never be better than 50/50 to make a team going forward. It's just too deep. And if Cheserek gets citizenship? Oomph. He might beat Rupp in 2016. Seriously. Unless Rupp runs 13 flat, which he won't.
In the 10,000, it's Rupp, who he won't beat, Derrick, who he could (could, not would) beat in a championship race, True, who has had his number the last year, but did not before and might not going forward, and...that's it.
After writing all that, it sure seems like he should be working toward the 10,000 or the marathon. Early on, it seemed like he was more speed oriented, but I think that's just because he focused on the 1500 in college. His PR is only 3:37 in the 1500. 7:37 in the 3000 is quite a bit better than that, as is 13:12 in the 5000.
1:16:25
What makes Bumby's track pedigree so great is how his strengths and weaknesses come together in the 5000m. It's a fine line at the top and I don't believe his 5k specialization will transfer all the way to the marathon very well.
Yeah, Eggleston doesn't have Bumby's background but the marathon takes a much different make-up. Someone with great marathon potential, shouldn't be very fast at the 5k.
Geb and Tergat were exemptions and were fast marathoners but they were also great 10k runners and ran some pretty heavy mileage. I see Bumby more like a Bob Kennedy or Todd Williams when it comes to the marathon distance...ok but not exceptional and better suited to the shorter stuff.
I think he could one day pop off a 61:XX but I can't ever see him being a sub 2:10 guy.
Tomorrow, I think he will 1:03 change with a "decent" performance. If he runs sub 65, I wonder if he will even take a stab at the marathon trials. But I can see him making the Olympic Team in the steeplechase before the marathon.
He'll look at a NOPer crosswise and Saladbar will have USATF DQ him.
Bumbi mentioned in a interview a month or so back that he still loves the 5k but will run a 10k track race sometime this year.
the BTC Pro team will open the outdoor season at the PJ Cardinal meet early May, so kinda expect him in the 10k there.
After Rupp and Derrick, the 3rd 10k spot for Worlds is up for grabs, especially if True and Mead stick to the 5k.
Worth a shot, especially if he gets down to 27:30 or so.
agc5k wrote:
When you're not competitive on the track, move to the roads and the marathon. .
Except when you are from everywhere else in the world. Run the track only if you are #1 in the world. Run the marathon under all other circumstances.
And if you aren't sure and are an 18 year old phenome, run the marathon and make bank, but then you'll be making so much you'll never take the risk to try the track.
So in many way you are 100% wrong.
Great post. ;)
You forgot about Estrada.
Struggles wrote:
I am on the fence. On the one hand, he has had some success in US 5000 champion races and struggled in his one attempt at the 10000 (although a 27:56 in literally the only attempt isn't THAT bad, I believe he crashed pretty hard and fell off pace pretty badly).
On the other hand, I believe he paced Bairu on his qualifier attempt in the marathon and came through the half marathon in 65 or so before continuing on for a a few miles, and it wasn't a race effort for him, I don't think (I'm going off memory from word on the street; I don't have insider information). Also, the only more talented US marathoners at this point, in my opinion, are Meb, Hall (who might be done, pending this weekend's race), and Ritz (who is also old and maybe on the downward trajectory).
I had pictured Derrick as the next top US marathoner, and he might be, but I suppose there is room for more than one at the top. Meb will slow down eventually, Hall might be done, and Ritz is a wild card going forward. In 2016, and certainly 2020, if Bumbalough shows some aptitude, it could be him and Derrick at the top.
I don't mean any disrespect to some of the other current solid marathoners, like Eggleston, but Meb, Hall, Ritz, Derrick, Bumbi have a distance pedigree dating back to middle school that the others simply do not. So naturally Bumbi's potential, and Derrick's, has to be considered higher until proven otherwise.
I say 62-64. It is a first attempt, after all. I think his best bet might be to move to the 10000, though. At the 5000, it looks like Rupp is there to stay at least through 5000. Hill appears to be made for at least US championship 5000s. He and Jager are a toss up IMO at that distance. Lomong has his number (better kick and equal or greater strength). True might have his number for now. It's just too competitive. He's good, but his odds at the 5000, IMO, will never be better than 50/50 to make a team going forward. It's just too deep. And if Cheserek gets citizenship? Oomph. He might beat Rupp in 2016. Seriously. Unless Rupp runs 13 flat, which he won't.
In the 10,000, it's Rupp, who he won't beat, Derrick, who he could (could, not would) beat in a championship race, True, who has had his number the last year, but did not before and might not going forward, and...that's it.
After writing all that, it sure seems like he should be working toward the 10,000 or the marathon. Early on, it seemed like he was more speed oriented, but I think that's just because he focused on the 1500 in college. His PR is only 3:37 in the 1500. 7:37 in the 3000 is quite a bit better than that, as is 13:12 in the 5000.
I also forgot about Teg, although it clearly didn't go well for him today. Not sure what happened. I hate to say it, and I hate to count out a guy with such a stellar pedigree, but I think he's on the irreversible downward slide. I hope I'm wrong.
Does Estrada have American citizenship? This is probably common knowledge, but I haven't followed his career closely. I know he popped off a big race recently.
After today's 62:04 and, more importantly, first American finish, I think he might have a good shot at the third slot for the marathon. His range might stop at 13.2, though, for all we know. But based on this, I'd say he's in there competing after Meb.
rojo wrote:
agc5k wrote:When you're not competitive on the track, move to the roads and the marathon. .
Except when you are from everywhere else in the world. Run the track only if you are #1 in the world. Run the marathon under all other circumstances.
And if you aren't sure and are an 18 year old phenome, run the marathon and make bank, but then you'll be making so much you'll never take the risk to try the track.
So in many way you are 100% wrong.
Great post. ;)
Definitely outdated logic. Pretty flawed if even Rojo can see it.
didn't like 6-8 americans (not including Estrada, Eggleson, Vail, Ritz and likely others) run faster at the 2014 Houston HM champs? saying this performance gives him a "good shot" may be a bit of a reach. in the conversation, but there are a ton of guys who are right with him (or better) right now at 13.2. that said, I believe 0 of those sub1:02 guys have went on to break 2:10 in the marathon.
Struggles wrote:
After today's 62:04 and, more importantly, first American finish, I think he might have a good shot at the third slot for the marathon. His range might stop at 13.2, though, for all we know. But based on this, I'd say he's in there competing after Meb.
Yeah I probsbly overstated. However, Houston is faster and Bumbi beat Ritz.