There are a whole slew of great London videos here. They have interviewed virtually everyone it looks like:
There are a whole slew of great London videos here. They have interviewed virtually everyone it looks like:
We emailed Tom Bedford, son of London elite man Dave Bedford, and asked him about the various pace groups. Which men were in group 1A (61:45) and which in 1b (62:15)?He wrote back:
Tom Bedford:
1) Mo Farah, Ibrahim Jeilan and Stephen Kiprotich will be pace group 2. Everyone else pace group 1.
2) Women will go through in 69.15-69.30 and negative split.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out in reality as 61:45 and 62:15 is only a difference about 3 seconds per mile so you'd think for a while it would be one group. Does it stay that way or to avoid the awkwardness does group 1 start too fast or does Mo's group start slower on purpose and warm it's way up?
Speaking of Dave Bedford. He's done a video preview of the men's race:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrjk2aEWj9ohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrjk2aEWj9oand women's race:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWL0SPF9Ap8&feature=youtu.beLetsRun.com wrote:
It will be interesting to see how it plays out in reality as 61:45 and 62:15 is only a difference about 3 seconds per mile so you'd think for a while it would be one group. Does it stay that way or to avoid the awkwardness does group 1 start too fast or does Mo's group start slower on purpose and warm it's way up?
I was wondering this also. It's actually only 2.3 seconds per mile difference. Marathon pacers usually fluctuate more than that per mile. It's not like they follow a mechanical rabbit at a greyhound track.
Someone on another thread posted the half splits and winning times of the past 5 or 6 London Marathons. I'd be curious to see how those half splits corresponded to what the pacers were planning to split in those races. They usually don't hit it spot on.
well if you are going to win this one, you're going to have to be capable of a 61x half marathon plus a 62x half, no question.
that means the second group will have to negative split or perhaps even split to win.
it may well be al-sals thinking that if moe has gas in the second half, then he could pull off a negative split. but if he does not, he can still scramble and collect the british record.
on the other hand going out fast and blowing up will make the day a total disaster.
in any event, if you move up in pace only 3 seconds per mile only once in the race, that will not cost you much. not much at all.
Maybe I am paranoid but the setup with 2 groups is in big favour of Mo.
I mean there might be a raceplan like "let the front blowup". this paranoide is fed by the fact of the last 3 year results. comparing 21k spli vs finishing time.
2013
1 » KEBEDE, Tsegaye (ETH) 5 18-39 01:01:36 02:06:04 01:01:36
2 » MUTAI, Emmanuel (KEN) 6 18-39 01:01:34 02:06:33 01:01:34
3 » ABSHERO, Ayele (ETH) 4 18-39 01:01:36 02:06:57 01:01:36
2012
1 Kipsang, Wilson (KEN) 3 02:04:44 01:02:12
2 Lel, Martin (KEN) 7 02:06:51 01:02:16
3 Kebede, Tsegaye (ETH) 8 02:06:52 01:02:20
2011
1 Mutai, Emmanuel (KEN) 8 18-39 +00:00 02:04:40 01:02:44
2 Lel, Martin (KEN) 27 18-39 +01:05 02:05:45 01:02:45
3 Makau, Patrick (KEN) 3 18-39 +01:05 02:05:45 01:02:45
This say: go out faster them 1:02 you will run 2:06.
So (i know i smoke tio much weed) i think they are blowing up the front on perpose.
Someone named "hope yes" posted this on another thread:
2013
Halfway 61:34
Winning time 2:06:04
2012
Halfway 62:12
Winning time 2:04:44
2011
Halfway 62:44
Winning time 2:04:40
2010
Halfway 63:06
Winning time 2:05:19
2009
Halfway 61:36
Winning time 2:05:10
2008
Halfway 62:15
Winning time 2:05:15
All those years, London has been a stacked field and only in 2010 and 2011 did the winner neg split the course, but they went through half in 62:44 and 63:06. 2011 set the CR by splitting 62:44/61:56.
If group 1a and 1b hit these ambitious half splits, I don't see anyone neg splitting the race tomorrow, and certainly not any of the debutantes. How often does someone neg split a marathon in their debut? Even KB slowed slightly with some cramping issues at the end of Paris which looked to be slightly downhill in the closing 5K on the elev profile.
sorry for my bad english. i know how to spell correctly only it takes to long.
Good reply so it's quite obvious. Last and only WR in 2002 at: 2:05:38
Khalid Khannouchi 2002 London Marathon
it only feeds my paranoide, lets roll another spliff.
Precious Roy wrote:
Ironically, Mo has a much better chance at winning this race with the leaders doing a WR attempt than if it were a true championship race. In a true championship race with no pacers, Mo would be lucky to crack the top 5. But in a race where most everyone will be running the first 1/2 about 30-60 sec faster than they should, Mo will almost definitely be top five and a threat to win if the top runners over extend themselves like they did last year.
Mmm here another, so just guessing that weed isn't making me paranoid.
Now the next guess is if all top runners will go with Geb or not. maybe they are even payed big time to go for that.
lets roll another spliff
We are likely going to see just one group through 13.1. Most definitely at the slower pace (1:02:15).
Still plenty fast enough for a CR.
I'm glad see that Kiprotich is in the second group. Although this set-up was clearly intended to benefit Mo, Kiprotich may turn out to be the big beneficiary.
I still think that London should abandon the use of pacemakers, and this would have been the perfect year to do it, since Mo would likely be able to hang on to the lead pack much longer in an unpaced race. London doesn't need to compete with Berlin for the fastest times; it already has the best runners, and would likely be a much more interesting race without pacers.
After seeing this, it wille be:
1) new world record
or
2)Kiprotich is going to win.
More likely 2)
It'll be interesting to see how fast Kiprotich can go on a fast course with competition.
As I predicted. Jeilan is going to stalk Mo all the way and hope passing him will mean 1st place.
All the talk of past times is really nice and all, but I think the idea here is to do something that hasn't been done yet. These guys aren't trying to repeat history, they're trying to create their own. In order for them to do that, they'll need to redefine what going out "fast" means. If we want to see marathon times more regularly dipping below 2:04 and eventually sub 2:03, we have to support these guys going big and getting after it. This is a rally for mankind, not for your nationality or your favorite runner. We keep throwing enough people at 26.2 and eventually something great will happen (not saying great things don't already happen). Sub 2 before I die!!!! GET PUMPED!!!!
maybe this wrote:
I was wondering this also. It's actually only 2.3 seconds per mile difference. Marathon pacers usually fluctuate more than that per mile. It's not like they follow a mechanical rabbit at a greyhound track.
Someone on another thread posted the half splits and winning times of the past 5 or 6 London Marathons. I'd be curious to see how those half splits corresponded to what the pacers were planning to split in those races. They usually don't hit it spot on.
Renato Canova has posted his thoughts on the race in another thread. Great insight:
Canova wrote:
1) All the best athletes this year are in very good shape, while last year Kenyans were out of shape because there were two and half months of continue rain, not allowing athletes to have a good training.
2) The pace will be very fast, but with Haile pacing, very even, too. This means that 61:45 can have a cost not very high. Under the point of view of how much fuel athletes use for running, it's very much more important to analyze HOW a time comes, than the time itself.
For example, when we go for the final test of lactate, using 6 x 2000m with less than one minute recovery, at increasing speed (6'15" / 6'10" / 6'05" / 6' / 5'55" / 5'50"), if the pace for every test is totally even (in this case we use acustic rabbits, with a bip every 25 meters at the requested speed) we have a real picture of the situation, but if we do the same test without acustic rabbit, and there is some mistake in the ditribution (for example, 6' must be 5 times 72" : if the first lap is 69", and after we have 3 laps in 74", and after we have again the last lap in 69"), the final time is the same, but the level of lactate is significantly higher.
3) In the past, we had some crazy split (the year of Sammy Wanjiru), but with the first 10 km really too fast, situation I don't think we can see again with Haile in front.
4) With this speed, a normal leading Group can be composed in the following way : Wilson Kipsang, Geoffrey Mutai, Emmanuel Mutai, Stanley Biwott, Stephen Kiprotich (he wants to go with the leaders), Tsegaye Kebede, Mekonnen Tsegaye (but he's with the leaders only for growing in experience).
5) May be very difficult to respect the real difference of speed between first and second Group. If at the end of the first half we want 30" of gap between the two groups, inside the race this means about 8 meters of difference every km, and normally this never happens. Knowing the personal tension every pacer has, the second Group has only two chances : a) going together with the first (in this case also Mo and Samuel Tsegay run under 62') or b) trying from the beginning to have more gap (in this case 62:15 can become closer 63:00).
6) Due to this high speed, at even pace, I think nobody wants (or can) try to create a sudden gap running 2-3 km at crazy speed (like Wilson did in the past). I think more logic that, after 30 km, front runners such as Geoffrey (remember Boston 2011...), Wilson, Tsegaye Kebede and Emmanuel Mutai start to push progressively their speed. In my opinion, this is the last Group of runners staying together, with some chance for Stanley Biwott till 5 km from the end.
7) Weather conditions seem to be very much better than last year. For those reason, I think possible to see 2-3 athletes under 2:04 at the end of the race.
8) If the race can follow this development, I think Mo can't have any chance for going on the podium. His realistic goal is to destroy the National record. And, of course, running 10000m in the next WCh 2015 and OG 2016 can remain his priority, because of sure he doesn't look at the Marathon when there are titles to win.
Read more:
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5735714&page=1#ixzz2yh4Ug7OMAre you guys staying up late to watch? This is the most exciting marathon in a long while. Hope it lives up to the hype. Great coverage here too.
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