Haile G bold prediction: ""Kebede is the one to beat, no question."

How is this a bold prediction? He won last year and he's very young. Lots of room for improvement. I'd pick Kebede to beat Mo without question.

xenonscreams wrote:

How is this a bold prediction? ...

I think picking Mo to run 3rd in this field is pretty bold.

well, haile is hardly going to back a kenyan is he ?!

if this race is fast, kebede stands no chance

guy has a 2"04'38pb & his pb is over 1'00 slower than the course record of that particular course - dennis's 2"03'45

kebede is not a threat if the winning time is 2"03+

Mo will make up a lot of ground on stragglers who go out with the lead pack late in the race but not enough to catch the leaders. I think third or forth is reasonable, but your comment is still funny.

Kebede has repeatedly established himself and continually improved only to be ignored by even more serious fans of distance running which I just don't get. Kebede was my pick too. Though he was also my pick at NYC which didn't go perfectly according to plan.

Xenon, are you single?

xenonscreams wrote:

How is this a bold prediction? He won last year and he's very young. Lots of room for improvement. I'd pick Kebede to beat Mo without question.

Because he's racing the WR holder and a 2:03:02 guy, not to mention the 5K/10K Olympic and World Champion who Alter-Gs like an extra 50 miles per week.

C'mon, son. Don't be a contrarian.

v6 wrote:

xenonscreams wrote:

How is this a bold prediction? He won last year and he's very young. Lots of room for improvement. I'd pick Kebede to beat Mo without question.

Because he's racing the WR holder and a 2:03:02 guy, not to mention the 5K/10K Olympic and World Champion who Alter-Gs like an extra 50 miles per week.

C'mon, son. Don't be a contrarian.

Kebede over G. Mutai might be a little bold but Kebede over Mo is a no-brainer. I'm a NOP fan and I love Mo but I just don't see it happening.

I see Mutai as moving just past his prime whereas Kebede is rapidly approaching his, so I could see their fitness intersecting.

This is possibly the hottest field of marathoners ever; and yes, they blew up last year .. that, imo, makes them even stronger and more competitive than 2013. Further, if it comes down to race savvy and tactics, Mo's the least experienced of the bunch. That doesn't seem likely to favor him, imo.

If Mo, comes in in the top 3, it'll be an absolutely phenomenal performance, least of all from someone in their marathon debut who just < 12 months ago ran 3:28:xx,

Well Mo, yeah, but over Kipsang and Mutai--that's a bold prediction. He's just showing his countryman love but Kipsang and Mutai have been the two best marathoners in the last couple years.

ventolin^3 wrote:

well, haile is hardly going to back a kenyan is he ?!

if this race is fast, kebede stands no chance

guy has a 2"04'38pb & his pb is over 1'00 slower than the course record of that particular course - dennis's 2"03'45

kebede is not a threat if the winning time is 2"03+

I doubt we will see a 2:03. Possible but a 2:04xx winning time is much more likely. It depends on the pacing. London is fast but it's no Berlin, and the mindgames/surging/racing that goes on tends to make it have a slower winning time than you would expect-particularly if they actually go out in 61:45, and especially if there are any miles under 4:35 or 5k sections much under 14:30

Kebede is extremely consistent and a tough competitor. He tends to hold up very well in the last 5-10k, and knows his body very well-in London before he drifted off the pace from 25-35k and still crushed the field. He's probably the smartest racer in the field and in a 61:45 first half slugfest, that matters.

You're PR in the marathon matters far less in a marathon then it does on the track, anyway.

-In Kebede's last 13 marathons, his lowest placing is 3rd. And he's only run 14 marathons.

-He placed 1st six times, 2nd three times, and 3rd four times in those 13 marathons.

-Not counting Olympics or World Champs, his slowest out of the those 13 races is 2:07:13 in New York.

-Kebede has run 2 or 3 marathons a year since 2008 except for one, 2011.

-Kebede is 27 years old

Kebede is probably the best active marathoner based on his body of work over the last couple of years. Note that in his seven defeats, three were at the hands of Wanjiru. Without Sammy, Kebede's record becomes even better.

I agree that Kebede 1st is more likely than Mo top 3.

All of those things re: Kebede are good, but Wilson Kipsang has run under 2:05 four times, including twice under 2:04. I think it'd be insulting not to consider him the favorite. He's won the majority of marathons he's entered.

Kebede is a definite threat to win any marathon he enters, though.

i pick kebede as well.

douglas burke wrote:i pick kebede as well.

of course you woud

no brains but go with ethiopian regardless of field

xenonscreams wrote:

How is this a bold prediction? He won last year and he's very young. Lots of room for improvement. I'd pick Kebede to beat Mo without question.

Picking ANY one runner is bold. Even the favorite on paper only has like a ~30% chance of winning a race like this.

ventolin^3 wrote:

douglas burke wrote:i pick kebede as well.

of course you woud

no brains but go with ethiopian regardless of field

ventolin^3... your right. Opps hang on.. no your not, you're wrong.

Remind me us all of Kebede's finishing position last year? Also remind me really how different the field was last year as opposed to this year?

2013 - Both Mutai's, Kipsang, Kiprotich, Farah (half way), Feyisa Lilesa and Ayele Abshero...

Add the two Ethiopians that didn't run into the mix.. Tsegaye Mekonnen and Ibrahim Jeilan, of course

"no brians but go with ethiopian regardless of field"

err...

go check the splits

kebede backed off after 1/2 way/25k as he realised it had been too fast & was 19s behind at 30k & 49s back at 35k !!!

2 no brains i see...

You talk some sense ventolin^3 but sometimes, honestly you chat some shite...

The pace at 35k last year at London (Stanley Biwott) was still 2.03.50

Was it won it that.. NO

Did Kebede win it.. YES.

Kebede has ran 2.05.19 at London (course record 2.04.40, with Kipsang 2.04.44 - some 1.20 of his own WR). Therefore why can't Kebede live with a fast pace.

Kipsang best at London 2.04.44, WR 2.03.24 (1.20)

Kebede's best at London 2.05.19, so he's capable of a sub 2.04 clocking

"Therefore Kebede is not a threat if the winning time is 2"03+"

is nonsense.. He is capable of living with that pace as much as anyone else.

& nonsense about kebede expecting a miracle with same race unfolding as last year is complete shite

& at that point most observers were still expecting a 2"04 finish

by default

he backed off & ran from apparently dead'n'buried at 35k

no one in there right mind expected him to win from back there & i doubt he did either

only the 5th fastest winning time clocked there & he had sensible pace that year

because he's had 14 goes at it & still only a 2"04'38pb

he's done nothing to ever suggest he can follow a an even 2"03-low/mid pace from the gun & win

dennis showed how fast chicago can be run - it's a wr calibre course & on kebede's best day he was nearly 1'00 slower than dennis' new course record

go look up their 1/2 way splits

they were aiming for 2"04 clockings NOT wr clockings

currently only 5th best clocking ever in london

the kenyans are not frightened of him

nonsense

he coudn't beat 2"04'38 on his best day on a wr calibre course in chicago

the same course where dennis ran 2"03'45 & said he didn't check the splits at the end otherwise he wouda run faster & tried for wr

kebede has NO chance if they go an even 2"03-low/mid pace from gun & maintain it to finish