London Pacing - 61:45 half, 2:03:30 till 20 miles

Drunken posting

It could actually happen. Temperatures in the high 40s, cloudy, not too much wind. If the weather isn't perfect at London I'd say no chance of a WR - Rotterdam and Berlin are measurably faster courses - but with a deep field and perfect weather it could happen.

Yes, it's a great field as always,but he's talking about pacing. What pacemaker is going to run those times? Not going to happen. Leaders will be on their own by 25K. Athletes capable of holding 2:03 pace through 20miles ought to be in the full race, or another marathon.

crazy raisin wrote:

It could actually happen. Temperatures in the high 40s, cloudy, not too much wind. If the weather isn't perfect at London I'd say no chance of a WR - Rotterdam and Berlin are measurably faster courses - but with a deep field and perfect weather it could happen.

Good point, but there's always a possibility a previously unknown pacer comes up big - see the guy who paced Makau to his WR in Berlin beyond 30K, or Sammy Kipketer almost beating Tergat for the WR in 2003 for that matter.

dennis kimetto is one of the pacers.

crazy raisin wrote:

...Sammy Kipketer almost beating Tergat for the WR in 2003 for that matter.

That was Sammy Lelei, in the first race ever to see a sub-2:05:00 (actually two of them).

Thanks to Tom:

https://twitter.com/Tom_Bedford/status/324802448722108417/photo/1

Looks like the race is set up for Volare's Guys. I would go with G. Mutai for the win.

Kindly

dbender wrote:Yes, it's a great field as always,but he's talking about pacing. What pacemaker is going to run those times? Not going to happen. Leaders will be on their own by 25K. Athletes capable of holding 2:03 pace through 20miles ought to be in the full race, or another marathon

2"03'30 pace for 30k is 1"27'48

the pacer is likely to have maybe 27'00 - 27'10 ability on a flat road course

1"27'48 with

27'00 ->1"00'13 , 2"06'28

27'05 ->1"00'17 , 2"06'22

27'10 ->1"00'20 , 2"06'15

for all intents/purposes, the pacer is going to have to be a 2"06-flat guy to take them to 30k at requested pace

Huge Turbodouche wrote:

crazy raisin wrote:

...Sammy Kipketer almost beating Tergat for the WR in 2003 for that matter.

That was Sammy Lelei, in the first race ever to see a sub-2:05:00 (actually two of them).

No, it was Sammy Korir.

It was Sam the Butcher

http://www.flickr.com/photos/32637333@N00/2207912106/

It was the revolting blob

http://cdn.unrealitymag.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/recolting.png

dbender wrote:

What pacemaker is going to run those times?

Well, they've got Mo Farah through 21k. He's pretty fast.

Citizen Runner wrote:

dbender wrote:

What pacemaker is going to run those times?

Well, they've got Mo Farah through 21k. He's pretty fast.

Dennis Kimetto has the duty to ensure pace is maintained from 21k and will be main pacer from 25k to 30k and may keep going to around 35k if he feels fine. We should see at least a 2:03 if not the WR. The problem is who will win this one. I know if all these guys are in shape, Kebede, Abshiro, Feyisa, Geoffrey, Makau, Kipsang and maybe Emmanuel Mutai and Stephen Kiprotich can keep world record pace past 30k. The whole thing might play out for Abshiro or Geoffrey Mutai who I think can run a strong 10k. But remembering Emmanuel Mutai's 2011 last 10k of 28:44 enroute to the standing course record, what do I know?

I think it would be wrong to bet against Kipsang here. I usually think G Mutai is the guy to beat, but he just wasn't quite as dominating last year. On most days, he'll be good enough to win, but Kipsang is probably slightly better. Kipsang lost to himself in the Olympics and he won't make that mistake again. If the pace is sub-2:04 to the end, I think both guys can hang, but Kipsang will pull away.

I would be a leery elite runner if Dennis Kimetto is a pacer, I feel like he is one of the best marathoners in the world right now. He gave Geoffrey Mutai the Berlin marathon win last year and then won Tokyo handily.

ventolin^3 wrote:

for all intents/purposes, the pacer is going to have to be a 2"06-flat guy to take them to 30k at requested pace

and he must have a good or at least normal day. The slightest problem (stomach, blisters, whatever) would lead to him to dropout at mi 16 and not 20.

Or do they plan on having multiple pacers through mile 20?

How expensive is a 2:06 guy for 20mi? $20k to sign, another @20k for perfect execution?

Is Mo Farah pacing?

dbender wrote:

What pacemaker is going to run those times?

Well, they've got Mo Farah through 21k. He's pretty fast.[/quote]

Yes, and that's pacing to 30K. 20Miles a bit further. Factor in the added physiological and psychological burden of leading the whole way, and the odds for the pacer lengthen.

ventolin^3 wrote:

2"03'30 pace for 30k is 1"27'48

the pacer is likely to have maybe 27'00 - 27'10 ability on a flat road course

1"27'48 with

27'00 ->1"00'13 , 2"06'28

27'05 ->1"00'17 , 2"06'22

27'10 ->1"00'20 , 2"06'15

for all intents/purposes, the pacer is going to have to be a 2"06-flat guy to take them to 30k at requested pace

@notaballer, you are right D. Kimetto is one of the best marathoners in the world. As Mutai's training partner or part of his training group and a protege of his, I believe Mutai asked him if he could help them in London. And out of the great respect he has for him, Kimetto agreed to do it. Furthermore Mutai knows he has fully recovered from Tokyo and can do a fantastic job.