I just got off the plane and read the LetsRun.com previews. Perhaps Rojo purposely waited until I was on a plane all day to post them so I couldn't argue with him.
The Solinsky vs Rupp battle may hinge more on how fast the pace is up front and who tries to hang longest.
However assume the proper pace, I think Solinsky will beat Rupp for a few reasons.
1) He's a better runner than Rupp right now in his career and
2) He's more race sharp than Rupp.
Not pointed out in the preview is that Rupp was supposed to take a break after the NYC Half. So he's just getting back into the swing of things. He wasn't a better 10k runner than Solinsky last year so with Solinsky already showing he's sharp in 2011 and with better PRs at everything from 1500-10k in my book he's the better runner so he should win. I'm supposed to believe Rupp off a break is now all of a sudden better than Solinsky?
Solinsky has upped his game in the shorter distances this year. Rupp has upped his game in the longer distances. I'm a huge believer in strength over speed but in this case I'm still taking Solinsky.
This race will be a great test for Solinsky and it may show whether he's at another level in 2011. Does his superior mile speed in 2011 correspond to better success in the longer distances? or has it come at the expense of endurance. We'll find out tonight.