I coach Cross Country and track at a local high school and one of the kids on the team went from a 21:50 freshman to a 17:55 sophomore. However he wont shut up about being the next high school phenom and has already set his 2011 XC goal as sub 15min. Now, do I crush his hopes and dreams and tell him that the odds are overwhelmingly against him? Or do I lie to him and say "just believe in yourself and put the work in at you'll get there"?