With World XC in the books, it's time for the outdoor season to start revving up. No World Champs or Olympics this season, so this is the year to do some time-trialing and just boost overall fitness. Alan Webb is still the greatest natural running talent in the country and he now has the best coach in the country.
I am inclined to believe that without the pressure of peaking for a championship season, Alan Webb is in the perfect position to get his confidence back with some sick times and a return to dominance over the rest of the US middle distance runners.
What are your predictions for Alan's season? I'll start:
I'd expect Alan to start with races under the mile, maybe two or three 800s. I would expect him to get down to 1:46-1:47 before really getting into speed work. Remember, he ran 1:49 at his district meet in high school, winning in 6 seconds. He then went on to win the state 800m in 1:47. If he can run those times off of just strength training, which I have no problem believing, then he should be in 3:50 shape by mid-summer.
Season bests:
800m - 1:45.0 or faster
1500m - 3:32 or faster, and I would not be surprised to even see sub 3:30 this season.
5000m - 13:15. I don't expect this to be a focus, but just as Salazar had Rupp race all of those 800s and miles to work on his speed, Alan could benefit from some well-paced 5Ks with guys like Solinsky and Jager where the winner is running 13:00-13:05. I don't think he necessarily needs to win these races to have confidence in his ability to be in position to burn guys in the last 300 of a 1500.
Basically, I'm pumped to see what Webb will do this year. I think anyone who wants to see the US compete for a medal in 2011 and 2012 should be praying that Alan Webb lives up to the promise of his 2007 season, because I don't see many other runners with the raw talent to make it happen.