There's no way for us to know. It depends on things like how much of your optimal effort now that the 16:47 was and how different the course will be than what you race on in two months. It also depends on how constant your summer training was and what kind of base you had before that. You could have been a 14:47, 15:47, 16:47, 17:47, or 18:47 runner before.
If you were steadily traning for two years before this race, two months more of training will not make as much difference as improving your pacing and mental toughness. Race people who beat you in the last race. Next race, pick some of them off in the last mile. Get more who beat you that time in the race after that. The times will take care of themselves as you get more competitive.