Webb will be fine

Not really. The fact is he is in 3:55/1:47 shape for the olympic trials. I can name between five and ten guys who are in better shape than that right now. At least two of whom are in SIGNIFICANTLY better shape.

Webb will not touch Lagat or Manzano at the trials. It'd be great if he did, but I would be shocked. In my book he's got the slimmest of shots at third place. But I would say that Lomong, Rankin, Sherer, Lukesic, and McClary all probably have at least an equal, and probably a better shot at that position.

The shape he is in come August won't matter if he's not on the olympic team. It doesn't sound fair, but it's true. I'd love to think that him and razcko really have all of this figured out, that they are learning from peaking too early, etc. But I just don't see it. I think something's up with him, and I don't think he is one of America's best metric milers THIS MONTH. And for now, that's all that counts.

If Pre was an off day that'd be one thing. But I'd say that 1:47 is about where a 3:55 miler should be. That's the shape he's in. Maybe it'll be slightly better at the trials - let's hope it is. But all of these ridiculous threads proclaiming "he's fine" - it's just wishful thinking. Until he proves otherwise, he's not fine. And 3:46 a year ago does not count. As far as the olympic trials are concerned, you look at what the man has done of late. That's not having your head stuck up your butt, that's just not being afraid to look at the facts and see they for what they are.

Correction:

The fact is he is in 3:55/1:47 shape 3 WEEKS BEFORE the olympic trials.

I'd be willing to bet he started some serious speed work in the past couple weeks and will be capable of 3:50/1:45 when the trials roll around.

MJF wrote:

Correction:

The fact is he is in 3:55/1:47 shape 3 WEEKS BEFORE the olympic trials.

I'd be willing to bet he started some serious speed work in the past couple weeks and will be capable of 3:50/1:45 when the trials roll around.

If he is capable of a 3:50 equivalent by the olympic trials, it won't be because of the "serious speed work" he put in the final days before the prelims.

blind eye wrote:

I think the 2:38.xx 1100 on the way to a 2:53 1200 as a rabbit after the 1:47 800 is a good indication that Webb could run 3:50-51 now in a good race. That puts him in contention. Like it or not. Webb has a VERY GOOD chance at making the team at the trials.

Listen jock licker, this is exactly what I'm talking about. He got his ass handed to him at Carlsbad. He DNF at the 8k Championship. He knew he was out of shape and wouldn't even show his out of shape butt up at Drake. He then got smoked at Pre. Now, he has a stunning performance in Indianapolis. What do you say? The same as the rest of the morons who die to lick his nuts. He's right on track! Your story is that the great Webb, this Olympic contender meant to get his ass handed to him in those races? That's his plan??

No, he sucks. He's had a couple of good races but his bad ones FAR OUTNUMBER his good ones. He's not a great runner. Everyone keeps saying how great he is, what a good race he's going to have, then he gets smoked and the same worn out excuses come out. All of you live in a fantasy world where Webb's used jocks hang in your room and you lick them every time you go out for a run.

You live in a fantasy world believing that next race is the one where he shocks everyone. He gets dropped, then you say it's the next one he was prepping for. Then the next. Then the next. I'm sick and tired of hearing all of the excuses. Until he can run consistently good races, I'm going to say he sucks. Guess what? So far I'm right. You Webb nut lickers look every bit like the fools that you are every time he runs.

You asked if I can say anything positive about Webb. Yes, I can.

He is making progress. Instead of finishing next to last like his last race, he only finished next to the next to last place finisher. And, it was all in a b rated race! What progress!!!

Spyders Webb

is there a reason you like seeing webb do poorly? do you think he's a doper or something? if not, if it's just because you like to be right in internet arguments, that's pretty lame.

webb, at his best, has a solid chance to medal at the olympics, and an outside chance to win. say what you will about his mental state and racing skills, a 1:43/3:46 guy has a chance to win. lagat has a solid chance to win.

other than those two, none of our guys has a snowball's chance in hell of getting even top-7 in the finals, and only a handful have even a glimmer of a hope of MAKING the finals. sure, they would "gain experience on the world stage" but you've either got it or you don't, and most of those guys simply don't have the talent to ever contend for a WC/Olympic medal. Lomong might. i'm not sure about Manzano's 400/800 speed. everyone else right now caps out at the national level.

i'm no blind "jock licker," as you put it. i can see that webb is clearly not in his best condition right now. the question is: can he regain his 1:43/3:46 form by august? if so, he will contend for a medal; if not, it's all up to Lagat, once again. it doesn't look good, but it's not impossible. i could predict that he'll perform poorly and, based on this year's races, i'd be likely to be correct. betting against "your team" is win-win, right? i mean, if he does well (like 2004, 2005, 2007), you can just not post on Letsrun about it, or be genuinely excited that an american is doing so well; if he loses, you get to come on here and gloat that you were right! i mean, granted, that makes you a huge d-bag, but whatever, you get to win an internet argument!

i'm all for one of the younger guys getting the third olympic spot to gain experience, but in THIS OLYMPICS, only Lagat (obviously) and Webb (if he regains his form) have a chance of medaling. if you have any interest in seeing the USA do well in the 1500m, you want Webb to make the team.

portland wrote:

if you have any interest in seeing the USA do well in the 1500m, you want Webb to make the team.

exactly. because Webb has had big wins on the world level and manzano, lomong, and others are not in that league yet.

Webb for Gold!

Webb only has to beat 1 guy. only Webb, Lagat, Manzano, and Lomong have the olympic A standard. Myers has it too, but he's done for the year. anyway, the rules changes from 2004, if you don't have the A standard at the trials, even if you win you dont go to the Olympics. for example, if Webb, Lagat and Lomong go 4th, 5th, 6th, and Manzano gets 7th then Webb, Lagat and Lomong go to the olympics b/c they were the first 3 guys to cross the line with the A standard. now there is still time to get the A standard but it seems unlikely anyone else will get it, and it's even more unlikely that they will get it at the trials. Point is, unless someone else gets the standard in the next week or at the trials, it is a 4 man race for the 3 olympic spots, regardless where they finish overall.

very true. although it should make for a very interesting (and fast) final as those without the standard will have to put the hammer down early.

whores underpants

The sad truth that only a health Lagat or Webb can be assured a Olympic final's postion. Manzano has proven to be a complete bust on the international stage. I mean the guy did not even get out of the first round of the WC's last year. He could not even break 3:45 in that race. I don't even know what is wrong with Myers and Lukezic. At least Lamong ran a 3:53 this year.

What was Webb doing this winter? Was he hurt or just not training?

adsfadvarwedw wrote:

exactly. because Webb has had big wins on the world level and manzano, lomong, and others are not in that league yet.

Webb for Gold!

well, you sound sarcastic and, if so, you missed the point. i'll just copy and paste what i said above:

webb, at his best, has a solid chance to medal at the olympics, and an outside chance to win. say what you will about his mental state and racing skills, a 1:43/3:46 guy has a chance to win. lagat has a solid chance to win.

so, you're right- manzano, lomong, and others are NOT in that league yet.

yea, Webb always shows up for Trials/Nat's. One of the more consistent people there. To say that he's out of shape and out of focus is probably incorrect. Especially if you consider it will probably only take a 3:34 or 3:35 to win trials. Everyone likes to say that all these fast people are going to trials and THIS will be the year that we have a fast 1500 at trials. Won't happen, it's always tactical.

portland wrote:

adsfadvarwedw wrote:

exactly. because Webb has had big wins on the world level and manzano, lomong, and others are not in that league yet.

Webb for Gold!

well, you sound sarcastic and, if so, you missed the point. i'll just copy and paste what i said above:

webb, at his best, has a solid chance to medal at the olympics, and an outside chance to win. say what you will about his mental state and racing skills, a 1:43/3:46 guy has a chance to win. lagat has a solid chance to win.

so, you're right- manzano, lomong, and others are NOT in that league yet.

this is ridiculous.

first of all, manzano had ONE bad race last year at worlds. to say he is crap on the international scene is ridiculous. he had ONE bad race!!!

the way i see it manzano is as much a favorite as lagat is right now for the title. don't forget manzano BEAT lagat last year. (you don't need to remind me that lagat went on to win gold in two events at osaka, i know)

it doesn't matter right now that webb was a 1:43/3:46 guy. he is NOT right now. i don't hate webb, but he's just on that level this year. stop trying to convince yourselves he is. it'd be great if he was. but to be hopelessly stubborn at this stage is just pointless. root for him, sure, but i sympathize with syderwebb in that i too am sick of reading so many threads about how "it will all work out" and webb will dominate. if he does it, it will be an upset, in my book. he should not be considered a top 3 favorite, and only borderline top 5, based on the shape he is in and the shape other americans have shown themselves to be in.

i think manzano can compete on the world stage. if he and lagat make the team, i expect two americans in the oly final.

What concerns me is not so much Webb's times of late, but his lack of competitiveness. He dropped out at Carlsbad, and he was never really in contention in the Pre mile and the recent 800. He's not just running mediocre times, he's getting soundly beaten. That can't be good for his confidence.

Unless there is some medical issue that I haven't heard about, I have to really question the quality of coaching that Webb is getting. He peaked way too early last year, and then this year he is in nowhere near the kind of shape he should be in at this time of year. I understand the desire to peak for the Olympics, but running 1:47 and 3:55 in June and getting your ass kicked can't possibly be part of the plan. For a miler of his stature and experience, that's just inexcusable.

johnny langenwanker wrote:

it doesn't matter right now that webb was a 1:43/3:46 guy. he is NOT right now. i don't hate webb, but he's just on that level this year. stop trying to convince yourselves he is. it'd be great if he was. but to be hopelessly stubborn at this stage is just pointless. .

Youre right! He isnt right NOW. No one wants him to be in THAT kind of shape right NOW! He needs to be in good enough shape to make the team. Do his racing tactics leave a little to be desired? Sure! But he only has to be good enough to place top three. I expect he will be and his performance (overall, not his racing) on Saturday suggests he can bust a 3:36xx at least. AND...I can say that with out licking his jock. Unlike Spyders Turd, Im not hung up on the guy. Nor is anybody TRYING to say he will dominate and all will work out. But it is not hopelessly stubborn nor is it unrealistic to hope for him to do well.

Thats all. You dont need to be offended that people actually like to root for him.

There maybe an injury or illness we don't know about. It is the only explanation. If he can't beat ncaa runners how is he going to win a medal.

blind eye wrote:

Youre right! He isnt right NOW. No one wants him to be in THAT kind of shape right NOW! He needs to be in good enough shape to make the team. Do his racing tactics leave a little to be desired? Sure! But he only has to be good enough to place top three. I expect he will be and his performance (overall, not his racing) on Saturday suggests he can bust a 3:36xx at least. AND...I can say that with out licking his jock. Unlike Spyders Turd, Im not hung up on the guy. Nor is anybody TRYING to say he will dominate and all will work out. But it is not hopelessly stubborn nor is it unrealistic to hope for him to do well.

Thats all. You dont need to be offended that people actually like to root for him.

I agree that come the time of the trials final, he might in good enough shape to time trial a 3:36. that would convert to a two second improvement over his mile race at pre (tell me if i'm wrong, but he ran 3:55 mile at pre, add 17 secs for 109 meters and you get a 3:53). which is about all you can expect. he's not going to get that much faster in that short of a time period.

the problem is, there are between 5 and 10 guys that will be in that kind of shape. now depending on what kind of race it is, and what kind of day everyone has, will determine where webb will finish in that group.

i'm not calling everyone stubborn for HOPING he does well. i'm calling everyone stubborn for refusing to see that he now should be considered an underdog for making the olympic team. even with a big improvement fitness wise from where he's at right now, he's still an outside shot at the team.

definitely root for him! everyone has people they root for. but i'd be shocked if he won, very suprised if he made the team, that's all.

3:36 shape will not be good enough to make the team even for a skilled racer with a big kick, neither which webb has. no, webb doesn't want to be in 3:46 shape right now, but my guess is his coach and him wanted him in 3:48-9 shape with a hope of 3:44-5 in the summer.

Lets get serious. Can you imagine saying this about someone like Steve Scott, Steve Ovett, Seb Coe..et all..a couple months out of the Olympics?

Alan has set a new standard for himself, and we are now all of a sudden lowering it, then we can all stop the illusion of him medalling. You better be in superb 3:29 type condition to medal in China, with a typical Oly final needing the ability to close in 52 seconds. I cannot imagine Alan being in that shape in 2 months. Sorry.