Killer Heat #1 in Women's 5000 Semis - 10 at 14:40 or better.

Who is left in the other easy heat

I think you'd have to say the following are 100% locks (minus a fall):
Tsegay, Kipyegon, Taye, Kipkemboi

All but locks:
Hassan (a little pause with that 1500)

Expected In:
Cranny (has the kick for heats)

Wouldn't Be Surprised Either Way:
Battocletti, Schweizer, Garcia, Tanaka

In a battle of kicks, you might lean Battocletti and Schweizer over Tanaka. If it's more of a fitness contest, that's where Schweizer might have a problem.

Universality selections only

It is funny, but it's kinda the fault of a bunch of Heat 1's runners as to why they are in a loaded heat. Schweizer, Cranny and Kipkemboi have low World Rankings due to their lack of racing. Kipkemboi maybe more defensively as she runs a good chunk of XC/roads. In Heat 2, Galvan, Grovdal and Koster have high rankings for their ability because they race frequently.

Chebet (14:05) and Eisa (14:16) are well ahead of everyone else in heat #2.

Heat #2 has 4 sub-14:40s while heat #1 has 10.

Thus, this quality depth is the reason for considering heat #1 a "death" heat.

Heat #2 does feature 11 sub-15s while heat #1 has 12, so in that regards, the heats are well-balanced.

However, since only 8 qualify from each heat, there will be runners advancing from heat #2 who would not advance if they were in heat #1.

As an aside, Morgan/US did get placed in the "slow" heat, but since she has only the 15th best pr in the field, looks like her chances for advancing to the finals are nil.

Battocletti moves up to near-lock in a kicker’s heat, if she isn’t taped up like she was at the recent Monaco race:

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And the Monaco race demonstrated Tanaka now has the ability to close out the final 400m in 61.4s. 👀

Tsegay, Kipyegon, Taye, Hassan, Kipkemboi, Battocletti, Tanaka, …

Actually, it's probably the reverse.

Schweizer has been better pure endurance runner -- appears to be better at the 10,000 when in top fitness -- so was very impressed by her 14:45 at the US Trials off just a few months training which was interrupted by a stress reaction.

However, in the Trials 5000 finals, her 66.86 close was blasted by Elle & Elise's 62s.

Then, in the 10,000, Karissa could only manage a 67.45 close, losing to Valby in the sprint close.

Probably most/all of the 12 sub-15s in heat #1 will be in contention with a mile to go.

So, for Karissa to qualify, if someone doesn't start stringing out the field a few laps out, Karissa would be wise to take over and push the pace and lose as many as possible off the back end.

After all of the injuries she's endured since 2022, would be a heroic effort for Karissa to advance to the 5k finals.

With Hassan dropping the 1500 in favor of the 5/10/marathon triple, no concerns now regarding tired legs coming into the 5000 semi heat since that will be her first race of this Olympics.

Thx for posting above info on Bartocletti & Tanaka.

Tanaka, especially, races year-around in all distances so she posts a lot of slow times along the way. However, her 8th place finish last year in Budapest shows she knows how to be at her best when the championships roll around.

Bartocletti finished last in the Budapest 5000 but she and Tanaka had to run in a very fast semi heat to advance.

So, tend to agree that the top 5 mentioned earlier + Bartocletti & Tanaka look for certain to advance to the finals.

Leaving the 8th spot to Cranny, unfortunately having to ward off teammate/friend Schweizer for that final Q.

Last year in Budapest, both women's 5000 semis went under 15:00.

But, heat #2 was a burner:

1 2 Sifan Hassan Netherlands (NED) 14:32.29 Q
2 2 Faith Kipyegon Kenya (KEN) 14:32.31 Q
3 2 Ejgayehu Taye Ethiopia (ETH) 14:33.23 Q
4 2 Freweyni Hailu Ethiopia (ETH) 14:34.16 Q
5 2 Lilian Kasait Rengeruk Kenya (KEN) 14:36.61 Q
6 2 Nozomi Tanaka Japan (JPN) 14:37.98 Q, NR
7 2 Nadia Battocletti Italy (ITA) 14:41.78 Q
8 2 Laura Galván Mexico (MEX) 14:43.94 Q, NR

That was last year's "death" heat.

Here was heat #1:

9 1 Beatrice Chebet Kenya (KEN) 14:57.70 Q
10 1 Gudaf Tsegay Ethiopia (ETH) 14:57.72 Q
11 1 Margaret Chelimo Kipkemboi Kenya (KEN) 15:00.10 Q
12 1 Agate Caune Latvia (LAT) 15:00.48 WD, PB
13 1 Elise Cranny United States (USA) 15:01.53 Q
14 1 Medina Eisa Ethiopia (ETH) 15:03.07 Q
15 1 Alicia Monson United States (USA) 15:03.35 Q
16 1 Maureen Koster Netherlands (NED) 15:05.13 Q
17 1 Francine Niyomukunzi Burundi (BDI) 15:05.24 Q

Now rethinking an earlier comment that Friday's heats won't break 15. Likely they will.

But if heat #1 goes out at 14:30+ pace like heat #2 did last year, that's probably beyond Schweizer's fitness and will be red line test for Bartocelli, Tanaka and Cranny.

I agree with this except I think right now Tanaka is more on Cranny’s level than Schweitzer’s. Finished 3rd in Monaco outkicking the Italian and completely dusting Kelati.

Where are the heat sheets posted?

So Whittni Morgan has a better chance in the other heat 😁

Yeah her kick might be more improved than I’m giving her credit for. If it’s sub-14:40 I have no doubts about her. For Schweizer and the kick I was referring to a slow race (15:00+) not one like US Trials. That wasn’t Schweitzer’s kick failing it was her not being that fit.

The Italian had both shins taped in Monaco:

Start Lists just posted earlier today (Wed).

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Worse . . . see post #7 above.