If Jakob were to start right from the, like Potato Tim did in 2019, what would be his potential?
How far from his peak was Monaco?
What difference does additional 1100m of unpaced running equate to? (Roughly the amount he was paced in Monaco)
If Jakob were to start right from the, like Potato Tim did in 2019, what would be his potential?
How far from his peak was Monaco?
What difference does additional 1100m of unpaced running equate to? (Roughly the amount he was paced in Monaco)
3:26.8-3.27.2
3:26.01
3:27 mid, maybe just under 3:27 if he gets the pole and the field ushers him into the front off the bat.
3:28:50
low 3:28 if he's in great shape. No way it would be 3:27.
Agree with 3:28
Drafting is a factor at those speeds, so I don't see him running faster than 3:28:50 if he goes wire to wire.
Charlesvdw wrote:
Drafting is a factor at those speeds, so I don't see him running faster than 3:28:50 if he goes wire to wire.
yeah, and also he has to do rounds. That's why if he really wants to win this he can't front-run it. Kerr or even Tim can blow past him in the last 200m.
Curious_Cat wrote:
+1.
3:28 flat if he is at his very best. And that might not be enough if Kerr is at his very best too.
Clean 3.33-3.35
3:25.7. Book it.
Fast
devinjm wrote:
If Jakob were to start right from the, like Potato Tim did in 2019, what would be his potential?
How far from his peak was Monaco?
What difference does additional 1100m of unpaced running equate to? (Roughly the amount he was paced in Monaco)
Tim did 3:29.1 when he was probably in 3:27.5 shape or so. Bad pacing and such have sabotaged his maximal PB and even in that race he went out a little hard for the ideal (though it worked to drop the field). I think Jakob could get to 3:28-flat, and maybe a tick under.
Lets say pacing worth between 0.5-1.0s per lap. (0.5-1.0)/400m=X/1100. X=1.375-2.75. PB: 3:26.74. Thet mean he could run between 3:28.10 - 3:29.48 wire to wire.
I think the final is going to be remembered for who fell over and who should have / have not been disqualified. Too many races in europe are ending in falls. I can't see the final not being messy after extras added from semis. Sad but the writing is on the wall for a repeat of what happened in L .A 1984 womens 3000m .
I don't believe he should hit the front until 450m left. Then light it up.
Cheruiyot's season best in 2019 was 3:28.77 from Lausanne (A race that had really bad pacing. First 400m in 53.86, first 800m in 1:49.41) , and he ended up running 3:29.26 in Doha (400m: 54.94, 800m: 1:51.69, 1100m: 2:34.52, 1200m: 2:48.17) His fastest 800m that season was 1:43.11 (his PB)
Within 0.1 seconds of the winner.
Anyone giving an answer lower than mid-3:28 is nuts. Drafting matters at those speeds.
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