U.S. 4x400 Relay Line-Ups in Paris

Question: How many switch-outs are allowed from prelims to finals in each relay? Wasn't there a recent rule change in the past few years?

McLaughlin will only run the 4x4. The mixed 4x4 is for lesser mortals.

The W4x4 will be: SML, Gabby. Remaining two positions taken by whoever has the fastest splits in the semifinal round. I suspect the remaining two will be Holmes and Brown.

Kersee has said SML will be available for the relay, but I guess we have to take what he says with a grain of salt...

If SML does not run, I see Holmes/Brown as the two for that relay if the US wants the best chance for gold. The women's 4x400 would definitely include SML and Gabby. Holmes, Brown seem like the next obvious choices.

As far as I am aware the rule only applies to the mixed relay where you can only switch out 1 athlete between prelims and finals

Women Prelims: Butler, Brown, Little, Holmes

Women Finals: Butler/Holmes(?), Thomas, Ellis, SML

Men Prelims: Wilson, Bailey, Deadmon, Norwood

Men Finals: Norwood, Norman, Hall, Benjamin

Mixed Prelims: Little, Hayes, Norwood, Deadmon

Mixed Finals: Little, Thomas, Norwood, Deadmon

Before Bol ran 50.9 SML probably would have been on the mixed relay. Not anymore.

With only one switch allowed, Deadmon and Norwood make the most sense for both prelims and finals, just for experience sake. Brown needs to run in prelims given her potential upside. Then finals, any two of SML, Thomas, Brown, or Holmes.

***Ok, new thoughts****

Mixed 4x400 Prelims ~ Norwood, Brown, Deadmon, Holmes
Mixed 4x400 Finals ~ Norwood, Faster of Brown/Holmes, Deadmon, McLaughlin or Thomas
Women 4x400 Prelims ~ Hayes, Butler, Whittaker or Shamier, Ellis
Women 4x400 Finals ~ Brown, Thomas, Holmes, SML
Men 4x400 Prelims ~ Bailey, Wilson, Norwood, Deadmon
Men 4x400 Finals ~ Hall, Norman, Fastest of prelim/meet so far, Benjamin

Would Norwood or Deadmon be a better lead-off option? Both seem to really excel on non lead-off legs.

For the mixed 4x4: 1 switch

Yes, SML will be available for the 4x4 relay as she has always been. I doubt the USA can win gold without her participation.

My thoughts:

I would personally go Wilson over Deadmon for the mixed for the following reasons:

A) As of right now, he's faster.
B) He's the future of your team, and if you have SML (if she runs) Brown, and Norwood, that extra 0.02 seconds isn't gonna matter either way. Get the kid some experience. It will pay off long-run

Only concern is that Wilson has actually never passed a baton off before (besides SMR), he's always anchor) so they have to practice that with him and he'll have to adapt in rounds.

If SML doesn't run (in my head, it's a 20% chance she runs mixed relay) in that case, maybe go Deadmon because that makes a closer race.

---------------------------------------

For the men, currently looks like Hall - Norman - Bailey - Benjamin(ITO)

That being said, if Bailey fails to post a time quicker than 44.1 in the individual m400, whoever runs better in the mixed between Wilson, Norwood, and Deadmon takes that spot in my opinion.

Prelims is probably Deadmon - Wilson - Norwood - Bailey (Bailey and Norman are swappable)

-----------------------------------------

And under absolutely no circumstances do Lyles or Kerley get a spot.

Neither Thomas nor SML will run the mixed 4x4. Both will run the proper 4x4

Hear! Hear! That would be unconscionable

Sydney has competition in Femke to focus on. Furthermore there's literally an entire relay pool that could use the medal: Sydney winning the mixed relay would do basically nothing for her so I don't see why she would waste her time and let qualified athletes sit there doing nothing.

Heats: Wilson -> Whittaker -> Norwood -> Brown

Final: Wilson -> Little -> Norwood -> Brown

Honestly asking, beyond carrying a baton what is different from a regular 400 to the lead off leg of the 4x4 that experience is necessary? With a 3 turn stagger it's still in lanes the whole time.

just the discipline to run right with staggers 50% more than a normal 400

I don't think Sydney will run the mixed relay because the 400H heats are the next morning

The staggers an extra turn, so runners are more likely to go out fast as it appears they have less track to run than they actually do, and the distance to the runner ahead of them is further

So for example, Shamier Little (who has been mentioned as a 4x4 leadoff option), would be a bad idea, as she consistently fades down the back stretch because of going out too fast, which would become worse during the leadoff leg.

So for the mixed relay, where a male leads-off, would Norwood be a good choice over Deadmon? Norwood tends to excel at the end of the race while a piano typically falls on Deadmon

I don't understand that logic. Sydney can jump into the mixed relay final with no risk and tons of upside. She can jog the 400 hurdles first round in 54+ and still qualify the next morning. At her current level I'm not sure it's possible for her to slow down sufficiently to run 54. Then she has a day off before the semifinals.

The mixed relay always evolves the same way regardless of sport. Initially the top nations don't take it seriously and purists think they are being clever by scoffing at it. Consequently there is one free swing for the other nations. Poland took full advantage by winning gold in 2021. By the second time around everybody wises up and realizes an Olympic gold is at stake. The women in particular have greater clarity. The Paris mixed relay will feature almost all of the top 400 women from other nations. It will include Adeleke, Kaczmarek, Bol, Klaver, Miller-Uibo (if healthy) and others.

There is no valid reason that Sydney doesn't jump in there. She would own a massive advantage. All of the other women I mentioned will have to run the heat a day earlier. Sydney can volunteer for the final only. It will be like a substitute for doubling at 400 flat. Global fans can see her dispatch Bol with ease on the final lap of the mixed relay.

The only way this doesn't happen is if Bobby Kersee is a petrified fool. Or if Gabby Thomas successfully campaigns for the role instead of Sydney.