Serious question: Does anyone think Kamala Harris can actually win? Seems very unlikely to me...

Anyone seriously asking this question must live in a bubble of Trump supporters.

I’ve seen her campaign before, and I’ve seen polls. In light of that, it doesn’t seem incredibly likely.

But a lot can happen over the next few months.

Also, there’s some heavy pro-Trump sentiment, but that’s a relatively small percentage of the electorate. That will have a counterpart with a similar percent of pro-Harris people, especially those most energized by having a Black President or a woman president.

Lots of the remaining people vote against the Democratic candidate or against the Republican as much as anything else.

The first big thing Harris has going for her is the yuge percent of anti-Trump voters in the country. The second is that there have been a number of voters who felt “oh, not those two old guys again!” She may not energize them or even earn a huge percentage of their votes, but that may provide a boost to her.

Her biggest asset would be Trump being ever-more-visibly Trump like over the next few months.

My guess would be that both candidates would be best served by really trying to rein themselves in and hope for unforced errors from the other.

She can only "win" if Democrats break out their election fraud apparatus once again

Look for lockdowns in September, along with a big push for universal mail-in voting.

A ballot harvester's dream.

Trivia question: How many sitting VPs immediately succeeded, through election, the president they served? So no Truman, who was an "accidental" president albeit it won on his own a few years later.

Answer: 4 (John Adams, Jefferson, Van Buren, and Bush 41).

So the odds are long.

As you note, she is not very popular. Barely made a blip in 2020 as a presidential candidate and is a horrible speaker. But then none of that is stopping her opponent.

I remember looking at the data from the last election where it showed the breakdown of voting percentage for the major demographics. The only group Trump won the majority of voters from was white males. Ask yourself if Trump can win on white males alone in this country if every other demographic goes for Kamala receiving 70-80% or more of them.

Let me guess...You're not a Trump guy, you're and independent, blah, blah, blah

And why are you expecting those percentages for “every other demographic”?

I listened to this last week and found it pretty interesting. Trump seems to be polling a lot higher with Black males this time.

honestlypod.com

Latest Episodes | Honestly Podcast

Link:www.honestlypod.com/podcast/episode/26...

I don't recall that exact percentages from the last election but from what I recall thats what it looked like, Trump had like 70% of the white male vote and everything other demographic was voting 70% or more for Biden. I expect Kamala would likely receive all of the same Biden voters in this scenario as I seriously doubt Trump has expanded his base beyond his cult.

He should have picked Ye as his running mate.

Harris a thousand times better than Trump.

If we based elections on the folks on letsrun, Harris wouldn't stand a chance. The white guys on here can't fathom that a black female is better, smarter, intelligent or more accomplished than them and always say she was only hired because she was a female and black. According to them no one is qualified, especially a black female.

I think what he's getting at is "in what universe does Harris get 70% (let alone 80%) of votes from: white women, Latinos of both sexes, and Asians of both sexes. Trump has made inroads with Black males as well, so my best guess is that the typical 90% (or whatever it is) from that demographic is not going to hold up. Harris may solidify/strengthen the Black women's vote in a similar but less dramatic way to how Obama solidified (but also highly strengthened) the overall Black vote ("candidate is a douchebag but technically Black, so I will vote for him").

Women overall: 55-44, Biden

White women: 53-46, Trump

And yes, recent polls have shown Trump doing better among Black men and Latino men this cycle.

I have little idea how any of those numbers might shake out this time.

And, of course, if Harris does improve on initial polling and it becomes a tight race, what’s even more important is how numbers look in a handful of states, which doesn’t necessarily track with national numbers.

I bet you didn’t feel that way when there was talk of Condi Rice running for President.

Did you see who she’s running against?

An arrogant convicted felon who incited an attack on American democracy.

And she’s not old.

Any analysis that examines Kamala’s “unpopularity” but doesn’t acknowledge Trump’s is… not a good one. Trump is not a strong candidate by any metric!

I don’t think Kamala is an outstanding candidate but you don’t need one to beat a candidate as weak as Trump. Reason for optimism.

Donald Trump is feeble.

Surely all of you Harris fans remember Rice?: National Security Adviser & Secretary of State. The smartest person in virtually any room she was in. Earned her way to the top by virtue of her ability, hard work, and pure brilliance.

And unlike Harris her ancestors were slaves in the American South, rather than slaveowners in the West Indies.

Not a trump fan by any means but he is a shoo-in for the win. Moderates are voting trump this time around. Elon Musk's endorsement is one indication of the tables turning for a lot of people.