What I find interesting about Kerr is that between indoors and outdoors he has raced no 1500s all year and raced the mile only once. He just happened to beat the best guys in the world in that race.
Racing is valuable, especially sub 3:30 1500m’s. Not having a sub 3:30 1500m in his belt in 2024 is a concern but we will see how he does. His first 1500m last year he ran 3:30 and placed 8th then felt better and ran 3:29 next DL. Maybe he’s doing 1200m time trials or something like that to simulate it but no better simulation than a race.
Jakob, Cheriyout, Komen and Nuguse all have faster PR’s than Josh. Josh’s lacking of racing might bite him in the end.
Hell I’m gonna pick him not to medal. Who was the last guy to intentionally only race 3 outdoor races and medal in the 1500m?
If you say Kerr will not medal, then that is it. Don’t say he is not a lock to medal and you are picking him not to medal. That is like me saying you are not a lock to have sex tonight and I am picking you not to have sex tonight. The latter is all that is necessary.
Personally am a little worried that the fall at uk champs was worse than we thought and he might have some injury he’s not sharing. I think uk athletes are expected to race the London diamond league - and while I understand might have been at altitude - really would have expected him there. hope not the case but - could have happened - that looked like a hard fall.
Racing is valuable, especially sub 3:30 1500m’s. Not having a sub 3:30 1500m in his belt in 2024 is a concern but we will see how he does. His first 1500m last year he ran 3:30 and placed 8th then felt better and ran 3:29 next DL. Maybe he’s doing 1200m time trials or something like that to simulate it but no better simulation than a race.
I count 3:45.34 as a sub 3:30 1500m
Converting it via a straight distance conversion (* 1500 / 1609) it's 3:30.03. Then take into account the slowdown and it's sub 3:29 at the VERY minimum
Racing is valuable, especially sub 3:30 1500m’s. Not having a sub 3:30 1500m in his belt in 2024 is a concern but we will see how he does. His first 1500m last year he ran 3:30 and placed 8th then felt better and ran 3:29 next DL. Maybe he’s doing 1200m time trials or something like that to simulate it but no better simulation than a race.
I count 3:45.34 as a sub 3:30 1500m
Converting it via a straight distance conversion (* 1500 / 1609) it's 3:30.03. Then take into account the slowdown and it's sub 3:29 at the VERY minimum
Using the 1.08 converter yields a 3:28.65, so it is clearly a fine effort.
Racing is valuable, especially sub 3:30 1500m’s. Not having a sub 3:30 1500m in his belt in 2024 is a concern but we will see how he does. His first 1500m last year he ran 3:30 and placed 8th then felt better and ran 3:29 next DL. Maybe he’s doing 1200m time trials or something like that to simulate it but no better simulation than a race.
I count 3:45.34 as a sub 3:30 1500m
Converting it via a straight distance conversion (* 1500 / 1609) it's 3:30.03. Then take into account the slowdown and it's sub 3:29 at the VERY minimum
They meant multiple sub 3:30s. Or at least trying. Though OP I do not think he is a lock he is my pick for silver but I think it could honestly be like 5 people winning because the field is deep and I LOVE IT.
Personally am a little worried that the fall at uk champs was worse than we thought and he might have some injury he’s not sharing. I think uk athletes are expected to race the London diamond league - and while I understand might have been at altitude - really would have expected him there. hope not the case but - could have happened - that looked like a hard fall.
Are you aware that he didn't run London last year either?
And to OP and everyone worried he hasn't raced enough, have you been following his season? Indoors, in his first race of the yearr, he broke the WR. In the second, he destroyed everyone at world indoors.
I always say the best workout is a race but Josh seems to be doing just fine without them.
I get why people are creating conspiracies in their head that something must be wrong as most people do race, but last year he didn't compete at all between July 9 and August 19 when Worlds started.
Jakob, Cheriyout, Komen and Nuguse all have faster PR’s than Josh. Josh’s lacking of racing might bite him in the end.
Hell I’m gonna pick him not to medal. Who was the last guy to intentionally only race 3 outdoor races and medal in the 1500m?
Good hot take! I don't think I've seen anyone argue that he won't medal this year, but it's definitely possible that he doesn't.
Josh has been on fire, setting the 2 mile WR indoors, winning World Indoors over Nuguse, then running 3:45 (worth 3:28) over Jakob and Nuguse. He was the clear favorite all the way through June.
But then he stopped racing, besides the British Trials where he raced an off distance and took a tough fall. That's not even bad for him, there's no evidence that he won't be ready to show up in Paris. It's just that since the end of June:
Nuguse ran 3:30 with a 53 last lap with no pacer after rounds, then ran 3:29 in Monaco after like 1200m of 3:27 pace.
Hocker ran 3:30 with a 52 last lap after rounds, and had more in the tank.
Kessler ran 3:34/3:37/3:31/1:46/1:43/1:43 in 10 days
And of course, before Jakob ran 3:26.
So everyone's starting to forget about how dominant Kerr was over the last year. I was hoping to get to see him race again before the Olympics, but unless he's been injured he's gonna medal. Didn't something come out recently about him and his coach giving up all alcohol for 3 months? Sounds like he's dialed in to me.