Kerr definitely has a chance. I'm not going to kid myself about that. He would have gone with Jakob today, or let's just say if it had been an Olympic final he would have gone with Jakob. There wouldn't have been anything close to the gap that Nuguse and Cheruiyot allowed.
The nonsense has been pretending that this is other than a two-man race.
That's the problem with watching United States trials, or similar. Somehow everybody believes new data points have to be considered, instead of properly ignored.
Ingebritsen at another level now. He just smoked them!
Last year at this time he ran 3:27.1, so not an entirely different level. Unless he's prepared to run 3:26 after the rounds, it's still going to be hard to win from the front.
He was also rabbitted for 1100 meters and instead will have to lead. Even if only 200-300 meters isn't at 55.x pace, then it brings a handful of guys back into the race. Kerr might not win yesterday but yesterday's race won't be the Olympic Final. Has to be faster than 3:28.0 for Jakob to win is my prediction
Ingebritsen at another level now. He just smoked them!
I mean tell me this is a messageboard predominantly of Americans without telling me this is a messageboard predominantly of Americans...
I guess it's just the way things are here - especially in sports viewing and media, which filters down to the average psyche and how it interprets things. It's always instantaneous and always extreme, my god. Like 6 weeks ago after Kerr beat him in Eugene it was the "end of his 1500m/mile career", "two losses in a row to Kerr he should give up on the 1500" - he then went to Oslo and struggled to put away TC, diving to run 3.29 and the jury delivered its verdict. Fast forward and now we are here - and I bet it's a lot of the same people, like come on.
For the record even before Pre, I said that I felt it might be a good thing for Jakob to lose to JK. I felt it would ease off expectations a little, at least share spotlight and help him ramp up consistently towards Paris. So I feel pretty vindicated right now but even I can't sit here and say that this is now a foregone conclusion. He ran 4/10ths faster than Silesia last night, but presumably (and quite obviously) his main opponent is also better this season and in a weird way maybe this performance now actually helps Josh in the same way it did last season, because now it's once again Jakobs title to lose.
Sport is not this simple. 3 weeks is a long time and pressure and circumstances are funny things. What I think is that clearly the two best guys on the planet are going to be at the biggest event on the planet for the sport and are going to be in their absolute best shape there so there will be no excuses. It is still totally open how this plays out and this is no foregone conclusion.
What I think is that clearly the two best guys on the planet are going to be at the biggest event on the planet for the sport and are going to be in their absolute best shape there so there will be no excuses.
You are thinking that the loser(s) of these two will say, "The best man won today?"
What I think is that clearly the two best guys on the planet are going to be at the biggest event on the planet for the sport and are going to be in their absolute best shape there so there will be no excuses.
You are thinking that the loser(s) of these two will say, "The best man won today?"
There will definitely be excuses.
Okay well excuses from the athletes vs actual realities are two different things. These guys are still kids in my eyes (and I'm not even old) so my expectations aren't really that high. I do believe there is a chance that it could be epic enough that one or the other could simply be mature and say "the better guy today won it and fair play to them". But either way if there were "excuses" I personally couldn't care less.
You are thinking that the loser(s) of these two will say, "The best man won today?"
There will definitely be excuses.
I think there is a good chance (basically equivalent to him not getting sick again) that Jakob wins by frontrunning a 3:27 or lower, with Kerr 5+ meters behind, in which case any excuses from the latter would sound ridiculous
Ingebritsen at another level now. He just smoked them!
Jakob improved by 0.4 seconds relative to his form last year.
It's pretty clear Kerr has kicked on over the winter with his 2 mile world record. It's perfectly plausible both are marginally better now than in 2023 and that Kerr wins in Paris.