Is it possible to grab a 4:20 mile by the end of Senior year?

It all depends. everyone is different. I ran a 4:45 my freshman year but only got down to 4:40 in high school. yet a runner I considered to be a scrub in high school ended up running some fast times in college so you never know. I would say stay focused on your goal (looking back I think I was distracted and didn’t stay focused on becoming the best I could be).

Less than 1% of sub 4:20 seniors ran that slow as freshmen.

well, if you are 70 lbs and haven't began puberty yet, you have a very small chance.

your goal should be to break 5. if/when that happens, move the bar.

It is important for any high school athlete to realize that to run a 4:20... you have to have significant talent as an endurance athlete. More talent than 95% of high school runners possess.

More importantly, it is important to note that you can't "will" yourself to have this level of talent.

What you CAN do... is train seriously and appropriately to maximize the talent that you do possess. Listen and learn. Race within yourself as opposed to trying to beat the best straight away. Take pride in the increments of improvement that you make. Particularly when you give great effort in a race.

And most importantly, be at peace with yourself and the results you achieve. No matter how fast you run... you will wish you had run faster...no matter how high you place... you will wish you had placed higher. Try and avoid that trap. Whether you end up running 4:00 or 4:20 or even 4:50... appreciate the HONEST effort you gave to achieve these times.

great post. even the best in the world will not be satisfied until the run 3:25.99. and then you will turn your focus to the next olympics or WC. there will always be some kind of monkey on your back.

The OP should hold off with serious training, and should instead, see how far physical maturation, and accumulation of mileage takes him. With his current times, pushing hard will lead to frustration. If he breaks 5 next Spring, he can consider stepping it up a bit.

Honestly a 5:20 mile shape with 60 sec 400m speed at a young age does indicate some potential. People are being a bit critical of you but if you train year round minus a small break after each season you have a chance. If you get your 400m down below 55 and maximise your endurance there is a chance. When i first ran 5:20 as a freshman i wasnt even knocking on the door of a 60 sec 400m

I have complete faith in my coaches, as I've improved significantly from last year. In Freshman year of cross country, I ran a 13:36 on a 2 mile course. Just a couple weeks ago, I ran 12:30 on my 2 mile split on the same course, while running the 3 mile. I'm here to ask if it is possible to bring it down to around that elite level, cause I want to put in the effort, but I don't know if its possible. I'm looking to break 5(or get within 5 seconds) this fall though. I'm aware the progression comes fast with slower times, but if I want to get to a 4:20 level, I'm not sure if its possible.

You only Pr'd 5 seconds?

anything's possible. i had a kid go from 5:17 in 7th to 4:15 in 10th. so that's same timeframe op is looking at. my kid did that on 2:27 800 speed.

but 4:20 talents are relatively rare, regardless of what Sean Brosnan would have you believe.

similarly, i had a kid go from 4:40 in eighth grade to 4:31 final PR. I wasn't the one writing the plans at the time. and this is a kid who ran from mid march to first week of june. nothing else.

what you have is a kid who was fully physically mature at 13 and had really sloppy, pigeon toed stomping form.

Does my current distance fitness indicate that I'll make it? (Based off of my cross country times).

Referring to here.

Thought the same, OP was much more geared towards 400/800 right now but with some patience and aerobic training this speed could translate into a fast mile.

Thats why you suck as a coach. Especially if you think 4:20 or after is rare

Ran 4:20/9:15 my senior year. Ran 13:45 32 my freshman year. Didn’t run the mile. I think its a lot more than 1%.

9 - 5:45 in PE Presidential Fitness Test (complete training beforehand was ~ 7 one mile "all-out" efforts)

10 - 5:37 in PE Presidential Fitness Test (similar to above, but fewer "all-out" efforts)

11 - 4:35 (ran xc and trained some..probably avg'd 35-40mpw.. 400m repeats was a staple)

12 - 4:21 (better training... 50-60mpw... surprised I didn't run better)

High school runners who do everything they are supposed to do consistently for 4 years are extremely rare. It sounds like you have good coaches who you trust, so that helps a lot. So just put in the work and hope for the best. Be proud of 4:50. Be proud of 4:15.

As with all high school athletes, it is imperative to focus on academics. Getting recruited by good schools for running takes a lot of luck... injuries, growth spurts, major life events, etc. can slow anyone down. Getting into MIT, an Ivy League school, or an honors program at a good state school is something that you definitely CAN do with hard work. So focus on the sure things that will benefit you for the rest of your life. Running is awesome, but life isn't running.