So what's going on with the British 800/1500 teams?

There’s one spot left for the 800m. That will be between Giles and Wightman. Wightman has the fastest time this year and performs better in World Championships. But there’s a question mark around this ‘calf injury’. Other choice would be Giles. Who also has the standard but tends to underperform at World Championships.

Personally, due to Giles’ inconsistency I’d prefer Jake to be selected.

Fair assessment. I think they will insist upon transparency from the Wightman camp. I'm a bit skeptical he really is healthy enough, and think they may go Giles especially since he seemed to get fouled (yes he shares some blame) by Kerr while in top 3 position.

Absolute botch from British Athletics here.

With Wightman hurt, you HAVE to make Kerr run the 1500 so you can put them both on the team.

Wightman is probably the 5th or 6th most likely man in the world to medal in the 1500, not having him there is true madness.

Kerr, Wightman, Gourley/Mills is a dangerous, dangerous trio.

They may well do. It’s very hard to predict. Also arguably Jake would have wanted to go for the 1500m (but no spots) as that’s his preferred distance.

They also do not like injury prone athletes (see the Charlotte Purdue snub for Tokyo).

5th or 6th seems kinda crazy. He's injured and before that he was going to the well to beat Eric Holt and hanging on for dear life 1.5s behind Nuguse. Unless he has a miraculous turnaround in the next week or so, I don't see why you'd expect him to be any more likely to medal than the 2 guys who earned their spot this week. 800 is a different story as it's an event where speed, talent and tactics can factor as much as maximal fitness.

Most likely medalists:

1. Jakob

2. Kerr

3. Nuguse

4. Hocker

5. Reynold Cheruiyot

6. Wightman

I think 5th-6th is fair for Wightman in a season where he ran 0.36 off his 800 PB and ran a PB in the mile. Nordas is out of form, Kipsang didn't make it, Mills is good but barely beat Wightman at Pre and doesn't appear to have his tactical acumen, Gourley is also good but hasn't shown the ceiling Wightman has, could say the same for Habz and Nader, and Kessler is inexperienced, though talented.

This is what was so confusing to me but I believe it was just really bad timing, right? Kerr and British Athletics had already decided he'd get the 1500 discretionary spot and he'd run the 800 but it wasn't until recently that Wightman came out with his statement on the calf strain. That threw a wrench in everything because before that, it made sense to have Kerr (who has the more recent world title and has shown great fitness this year) not risk his valuable 1500 spot and to have Wightman prove that he's moving back to 2022 fitness by winning the trials over a tough field. As someone outside the UK, I'm still not totally sure how their selection works. Is it just a straight top 2 at trials with standard plus one discretionary or are there more politics involved? I'd love to see Wightman in the 1500 and would honestly feel pretty gutted for him if he misses the Olympics entirely but I don't know if the selectors can justify his selection, even at 800, ahead of Giles. But then Giles also messed up by tangling up with Kerr so it truly is just a total sh!tshow.

It’s top 2 at the trials (as long as they have the standard). Any athlete who won a medal in a World Championship last year already has a spot. (They just need to show fitness in any event). After the first 2 and medal winners if the 3rd spot is open then that comes down to it to other factors; current fitness, recent injuries. They need to have the Olympic standard. It’s a bit open and can get confusing. I guess the US way is clearer.

Tim Cheruiyot should be ahead of Wightman pre or post-injury for sure based on Oslo alone. You have to also throw in that Wightman is hurt in contrast to the previously hurt Habz, Hoare and Gourley who are now on the upswing. Mills and Nordas seem to be running better of late, but I understand the skepticism. Ditto Nader who has hit a bit of a roadblock of late. Komen, Laros, Kessler and the Ethiopian Champ are wild cards. I don't think you are realizing the impact of an injury here.

Agreed. I would actually have Tim above Reynold and Hocker. Basically, your finals/medals contenders break down like this:

2 Norwegians (1 favorite, 1 with an outside chance)

3 Kenyans (all decent chances, but not slam dunks)

3 Americans (2 really good chances, 1 outside chance)

3 Brits (1 favorite, 1 decent chance, 1 outside chance)

3 Aussies (all decent chances, but not slam dunks)

2 Spaniards (both outside chances)

1 Ethiopian (Tefera isn't on form, but he's still really good)

1 Kiwi (Tanner can make the final)

1 Frenchman (doping mfer; only medals if he's pissing hot)

There won't be any finalists outside of these 19.

How the hell could you not mention the women's side and the 17yr old 800m phenom?!

I started this thread to clear up my own confusion on who's going to Paris, not really to discuss the races. It was a great run from Gill but I think it's pretty cut and dry that the team is Gill, Reekie, and Keely with the discretionary pick. Again, that's awesome for Gill but that wasn't the purpose of starting this thread.

Mills was top 2 in the 1500 and has the standard so if he wants to do it they have to select him for that event. There is no way to select Wightman unless Mills is persuaded only to run the 5000 but I can't see that happening.

Burgin came top two and has the standard so they have to select him. The injury history makes no difference to selection.

1500m team is clearly Kerr, Gourley, Mills

800m team is Pattinson, Burgin and either Wightman or Giles.

Yep. Mills has to be selected as he has the standard and top 2. He is adamant he wants to double and has been saying this all along. He won’t change his mind.

If only Burgin can stay healthy he has such potential.

The only question that remains for the selectors is Wightman or Giles. I think that will come down to how serious this calf injury is. Hoping it’s a mild strain.

At this point, sadly, I would put Gourley and Kessler above Wightman. Depending on his fitness, also Habz, Nader and Mils might have slightly better chances. A small margin between potentially being "the next guy" and narrowly missing the final.

Agree. I would actually say wightman is below even money to make the final currently in the 1500.

Maybe you don't understand the difference between 'more likely to medal' amd 'more likely to finish higher'. Mills might be more likely to be in better shape in Paris, for example, but more likely to medal?

Or take the example of Potato Tim. People were saying he was done earlier in the season, but he would still be more likely to medal than most because of his pedigree and talent.

Or go back to Coe and Elliott in 84. Coe was chosen because he was more likely to medal and certainly more likely to win.

I think ideally Mills would concentrate on the 5000m. I don't think he has a medal chance in the 1500m. But he has met the selection criteria for both.

Anyway, for the 1500m, they have only one discretionary pick which would be Kerr and then obviously Gourley and Mills. I don't know what happens if Mills decides to only run the 5000m. I don't thats his intention.

In the 800m, I would have Pattinson, Burgin and Wightman. I would not select Giles. By the selectors own standards, which use on other athletes higher in the world rankings than Giles, he is not a top 6 prospect. In the European Championships, he finished 7th of 8 in the final. He's managed a third, 2 fifth places and a 6th place in his Diamond League outings this year (some of them at 1500m). Last year, he was 5th in his heat in the World Championships 1500m and failed to progress, and finished 10th and 12th in his Diamond League outings. In 2022, he was 5th in the UK Championships at 800m, 9th in the Commonwealth Games final at 1500m and 9th in the Paris Diamond League 800m. In 2021, he made the Olympic 800m semi final and no further, and finished 3rd, 4th, 5th and 5th in his Diamond League outings. In 2019, he didn't progress from the heats at the European Indoors 800m or the semi finals at the World Championships 800m.

Giles has had all the opportunities to be in fast races and championships, and he just doesn't have the ability at the top level. I don't see how the selectors can keep excluding other athletes they don't see as top 6 finishers but keep selecting Giles. He's already been extremely lucky to keep getting selected for championships when others don't get to go.

But we all know he will be selected, and Wightman will be left at home, because of one reason only. The selectors also can't be seen to be punishing Giles for being involved in the fall with a whiter than white guy like Kerr.