Is Grant Fisher at a new level in 2024? Or do we just think he is because he won USAs twice?

In defense of Fisher, I'll say this. He was dong all of the leading last night and leading is worth close to a second a lap. I think he'd certainly be there with 200 to go as a slew of guys were last year.

That being said, Jakob's last lap in Budapest was 52.45. Krop's last lap was 53.04. Fisher's last lap last night was 57.56.

I think for him to employ such a strategy to WIN he needs to be able to do it in a sub 13 race… like the Tokyo one with Cheptegei. At this pace multiple guys can sit and kick on him. Else if I were him I’d just run for a medal in the 5 and run smart

I'm not sure anyone really has thought Fisher is at a new level in 2024 besides you guys. He's been absolutely world class ever since finishing 5th in Tokyo. He has always struggled with the last lap (the reason he often loses at USAs) and he adapted well for the domestic scene this year, but not in a way that would be meaningful on the international stage. He has about the same chances at a medal in Paris that he did in Eugene and Budapest; the 10k is his best shot, he needs the race to be fairly quick - ideally sub-27:00 - and he needs at least one of the big favorites to not show up.

We just think that he’s at another level because he won USAs twice. I’d argue the global level is higher now than it was in 2021, when got 5th in the 10,000m. It’s probably a bit better than 2022 as well, when he won the 5 and got second in the 10 (it’s still crazy to me how he got beat by Joe Klecker) at USAs. He ran 26:33 and 12:46 in 2022. As of now, he hasn’t shown anything that would indicate that he’s in that fitness again. When he was in that fitness, it was to enough to medal. There’s a massive difference between beating Nico, Woody, Abdihamid and Parker, none of whom I think have a shot at medaling, and beating guys like Cheptegei, Kiplimo, Barega. He lost to those three guys at the LA Grand Prix. I have a hard time seeing him medaling at the moment.

We won't know for sure until Paris, but going purely off the eye test, Fisher is not in medal shape. He is probably in 12:48 - 12:50 shape, which is solid but not really in the mix in what happens to be the best year for the 5k ever. 3 guys have run 12:40 or faster so far, which doesn't even include Jakob, Barega, or Cheptegai. All 6 of these seem to have better kicks than Fisher. Some of those won't run their best race, but this doesn't leave much room for Fisher.

Agree with this. Fisher has been the best in the US for several years. He often lost domestic meets on the last lap, so this time he changed his tactics and won Trials. But it's not the sort of change that would help him on the international level.

He's still a great hope for a medal. Hopefully it will come one of these years!

He is better this year, but it's always a long shot for a medal in the 5,000.

Breaking it down: we have to acknowledge the Ethiopians have absolutely tanked in the 5,000 the last 3 years to a frankly unbelievable level in global champs. Could lightning strike again? Hagos used to be a pretty clutch championship performer, and he will not be doubling. There are no excuses for him, expect for age and running too hard on the circuit. Do you trust Aregawi or Kejelcha to double back (if they do). Maybe, maybe not. Yihune or Mehary fresh are not far ahead of Fisher if at all. So there is a chance Ethiopia is out of the way and then you're looking at Krop and Jakob, but then a very wide open field. Krop is a really good kicker but he has seemed a little less reliable than in 2022, where he was really good all year. Then you have Luis, who Grant is better than except for the kick. And a bunch of guys in Grant's range, but beatable (Almgren, O. Chelimo, Lobalu not eligible I don't think, Kwemoi, Kurgat, Nur et al). The Ugandans are theoretically doubling, but they don't seem to have their heart as in much as the 10,000.

For the 10,000, you have Cheptegei (form somewhat a mystery, but pedigree unmatched), Kiplimo, Kejelcha and Aregawi (often poor tactically but beasts), Barega (scary), the 3 Kenyans (all around Grant's level, but not as consistent tactically). He's certainly got a chance, but he's going to have to be well-positioned and beat some guys with his tactics over fitness. Specifically thinking of the second 3 I have mentioned. I don't have much belief he could beat Barega.

Through happiness comes strength.

Yes, Grant Fisher is running and racing at a different level.

Beating up on American runners gives a false sense of hope. Just look back at the Bob Kennedy years as an example. Here, Americans, put too much respect on Grant and let him do what he wants.

In Paris, each time Grant pushes to the front, 3-4 guys will pass him back over the course of the next 400m. It's that constant yo-yo and surging that breaks down Grant. No one is going to just let him sit shotgun for 10 laps and cruise his way to the lead.

This is all a pretty good summary. The 5000 is down to Gebrhiwet and Jakob. I don't think anyone else factors. Both have shown 12:30ish ability, both are consistent championship performers, both can close very fast. I'd give the edge to Gebrhiwet on form but it's very hard to say. There are many other runners that will give Fisher a hard time for the bronze, and I just don't see him beating all of them. I'd pick Grijalva for the bronze, if WADA got it together a bit earlier he'd already have a bronze and he's in good form.

The 10000 is quite messy but between Barega and the Ugandans a medal is extremely difficult. Cheptegei does appear to be past it though, so Grant could sneak in for the bronze (like you, I have little faith in the Ethiopians outside of Barega and Gebrhiwet). He desperately needs someone to make the race fast: I think he has <5% chance in a race over 27:30, but probably a 40-50% chance in a race under 27:00.

In my eyes, Yomif is as fit as anyone. Got passed by Gebrhiwet in that 5k, but led most of it and still ran 12:38. Hasn't historically had his best races in championship races, but is only 26 and may be due to get one right.

Yomif is of a similar fitness level but with nowhere near the championship pedigree of the other two. I love him and wish him the best but if I was putting real money on the line I would never, ever bet on him. Hope he proves me wrong though.

I saw Lobalu is running for the Refugee team in 5000

He's not a Swiss citizen yet so can't compete in the Olympics despite World Athletics approving his transfer of allegiance for World Athletics competitions