Women's Olympic Trials 10000m - who are your picks?

I’ll go with the same 3.

It’s interesting that Kelati is 27 years old, and didn’t top Valby’s current 5K and 10K PRs until this year. She hasn’t had any victories of note on the track. Why didn’t she finish the 10K in the 2020 trials?

Same. Unfortunately Henes has not seemed back to form since her lung injury. I hope she runs well though.

I think Henes is more fit than many are thinking. She was already back into 15:12 shape over 5 weeks ago at LA Grand Prix and has likely gotten in a good block after that since she only ran one 1500 between that race and the trials and 2 of the favorites are coming in with 10k of racing in their legs over the previous 8 days.

I picked Kelati Karrisa and Parker but if it’s slower than 31 think Henes will get 3rd

I like those 3 as well, though I wonder if Valby takes it out early it becomes a repeat of the 5K where the pros just sit behind her, let her do all the work, then pounce in the last few laps.

Elly Henes is a mystery, hasn't done a lot of running since her injury. that said, she could be the freshest in this field which should play to her advantage.

my dark horse is Amanda Vestri. when she was at Syracuse I always saw her finish behind Valby or Tuohy, but since turning pro she seems to have figured it out. she was the top american finisher at the NY half marathon, might give her the confidence she needs.

Sounds like a repeat of the 5000 with Ely Henes subbing in a top 3 role.

I'II go Kelati, Valby, Schweizer. Valby continues her strong pacing, this time dropping both Valby and Henes before kick time.

I agree, I think it’ll be likely be Kelati, Schweitzer, and Valby. Although I can definitely see a world where Valby takes it out hot and leads like she’s used to, but expends too much energy leading a hot 10K after having the multiple 5K rounds still in her legs and fades over the last 1-2K. I see Amanda Vestri or Jess McClain being right behind Valby to potentially take the 3rd spot.

Schweizer

Kelati

Ennis

A difference in the 10000 is that Valby wouldn’t have to lead from the start. Even with a slowish first 4k followed by a progressive acceleration, she can squeeze the life out of anybody in the field except Schweizer and Kelati. I see Valby joining those two on the team, although I think she’ll end up having the option to run the 5 as well. Cranny or ESP will decline if they make the 1500 squad as both have much better chances at a medal there.

I think someone said Valby has to run 30:43ish to qualify if she comes in third and 30:48 if she comes in 2nd to go to the Olympics. Don’t think there is any scenario she beats a fresh Weini.

So she’ll basically have to front run a PR. She had a pacer in CA for the first 4-5k I think. Karissa is in the same situation, but will need to run faster than Valby since she only ran 31:04 in March(5 months post-op). I think she’s probably fit enough to run the standard now. But I assume her plan is sit on Valby and squeeze it done if Valby falls off the pace.

Also Henes ran 31:07 in March 5 months after the lung thing. Assuming things have gone smoothly, she could be in sub-31 shape as well. Honestly, best case for her is that neither Karissa or Parker get the time because she has the ranking.

I am also really curious to see how McClain does after her surprise at the marathon trials.

I think McClain could actually do really well. She been posting some quick workouts on her instagram. The 10k she ran in Ca was only paced for the trials standard I think?

Rachel Smith is also a contender. she ran a 31:04 at The Ten in March, right alongside Schweizer. if she can knock 15 seconds off her time she'll definitely be in the conversation.

I'm a huge McLain fan after her valiant OMT run and her independent approach. A perfect dark horse pick.

I don’t think those times for Valby take into account those from other countries who may opt out of the 10K for various reasons.

Definitely true, but couldn’t others from other countries also theoretically move up with strong results in other meets/Trials?

In reality, she might run 31:50 for 3rd and have it be enough, but it also might not be, which is why she might be better served by doing what she did in the 5000.

It’s also limited to 3 per country, which I believe is also a factor. Not everyone ranked above her will be able to go.

But, I do expect her to string together mostly 73 second laps to get as close to the standard as possible.

Unfortunately, it’s looking like similar weather to the 5K final, which won’t help anyone who doesn’t have the standard.

Kelati was a lock in 2020 I think the heat did it.

This year I'd say Kelati is probably the only one that would help trade the lead with Valby and they both would be rewarded for it. If I was Valby after that 5k I'd stick on Karissa and make her do all the work then try to drop her with 1.5-2.5 miles to go. Make them work for you not the other way around. Monson and Sisson wouldn't make it so easy on the rest of the field. Valby almost has that strength to punish the entire field pace wise but I think she should work with Kelati to get it done.

But she too is doubling the 5/10, and is an older athlete.