Predict mile - sub 4:10 possible?

Training Advice/Discussion 1500

4 weeks ago 06/15/2024 10:00pm EDT

Last 3 weeks:
Monday: 4:17 hilly mile (road - slight net downhill but slow course due to hills; 5-10s slower than track based on others’ times); 25 minute PM shakeout
Tuesday: recovery 8.5
Wednesday: easy 45’
Thursday: crappy workout - 1600, 2x800, 2x400 tempo + 2x200. 5:05-5:10 pace + 30.0 / 200 avg; cooldown 1. Very hot
Friday: easy 5 and change
Saturday: easy 30’
Sunday: 10x1000 tempo (3:13); shakeout 3. 13 miles on the day
Monday: recovery 6
Tuesday: shakeout 3;3 mile tempo (5:10), 3:00 rest, 1.5 mile tempo (5:07), 0.5 jog, 4x200 from 27.9 to 26.2
Wednesday: recovery 60’, shakeout 3
Thursday: easy 40’
Friday: 3x mile tempo (5:10), 1:00 rest; 2x1k at 3:10 (5:05 / mile), 1:00 rest; 2k (6:20), 1:15 rest; 1000 tempo (3:10); 3 mile shakeout
Saturday: jog 20’, jog 30’
Sunday: shakeout 3; 4x300, 2x200 at 800. All 300s in 42.x range, 200s in 28.x. 800 effort, slightly windy
Monday: recovery 11
Tuesday: shakeout; easy 6
Wednesday: shakeout; 8x 1000, tempo at 5:07 pace. Very smooth
Thursday: recovery hour
Friday: shakeout; easy 4
Saturday: 500, 400, 300 at ~1000 effort; 4x200 mile. 1:13.0, 59.7, 43.0; 31-30
One year ago I ran 4:19 on a very easy road mile course (certified 1 mile but flat), with 50 mpw and hitting strides at about 13.5-13.8. I also biked 20 mpw of the equivalent of ‘jog’ bike rides - think 1-2 miles about twice a day at a very slow pace). My tempo was about 5:20 too.

Now I’ve been running about 60 mpw and am hitting 12.3-12.6 for strides with faster tempo. Does this predict 4:10 as a possibility? I feel like running 2:05 through 880y would feel very easy.

I also believe I could run between 1:53 and 1:54 in the 800 based on a combination of my aerobic strength, the ease of 42.x for windy 300s, going more than 1.0 seconds faster on flying 100s, and where my workouts are compared to previous cycles of training. Previous PR is 1:59 with a negative split, where I ran the final 200 in 27 and I’m in shape to shatter that - I think I could run 1:56 in moderate wind completely solo with a normal mileage day the day before.
Not as sure about my current 3000 and 5000 fitness due to heat - previous workouts have shown about 14:40 fitness in 80* and sunny conditions with negligible wind. I think I could run about 14:25 by splitting 8:45 / 5:40 with a strong last lap in optimal conditions but that’s much more of a guess. 10000 is likely worse - probably above 30

4 weeks ago 06/15/2024 10:51pm EDT

re: Mile / 3000 runner

Do you know what a paragraph is?

Training looks good enough - tempo and strides can get you to surprisingly good mile fitness. But I would be curious to see how comfortable you are at pacers near(ish) mile - 800 to 3000

2:25-ish 1000 would imply more of a 4:05 mile. But running 1:54 / 2:25 would be FAR different than 1:50 / 2:25.

If I were you, I'd aim to go out in 2:04-2:05, solid 3rd 440y, and then blast the last 440y

3 weeks ago 06/16/2024 3:33pm EDT

re: formatting

formatting wrote:
Do you know what a paragraph is?
Training looks good enough - tempo and strides can get you to surprisingly good mile fitness. But I would be curious to see how comfortable you are at pacers near(ish) mile - 800 to 3000
2:25-ish 1000 would imply more of a 4:05 mile. But running 1:54 / 2:25 would be FAR different than 1:50 / 2:25.
If I were you, I'd aim to go out in 2:04-2:05, solid 3rd 440y, and then blast the last 440y

Ran 3x 1600 in hot weather averaging 4:40 feeling slightly slower than 5000 effort

I ran 4x400 in 60 average off 2:00 rest feeling very comfortable, so I think 2:04 even on a (flat) road through 800 would be calm. Might run a 800 at 98% effort on Tuesday to gauge fitness - if it’s under 1:56.99 and feeling not all out in spikes that are basically flats, I’d be very confident in sub 4:10

3 weeks ago 06/16/2024 3:37pm EDT

re: Mile / 3000 runner

have you tried racing a mile recently? If so what was your time and was it sub 4:10

3 weeks ago 06/16/2024 3:56pm EDT

re: Just race

Just race wrote:
have you tried racing a mile recently? If so what was your time and was it sub 4:10

4:17 hilly road. Slight net downhill but not a fast course because of how the elevation profile is. From year to year, people tend to finish ahout 7-8 seconds off their track mile PR.

3 weeks ago 06/16/2024 11:10pm EDT

re: MiIe / 3000 runner

MiIe / 3000 runner wrote:
Just race wrote:
have you tried racing a mile recently? If so what was your time and was it sub 4:10
4:17 hilly road. Slight net downhill but not a fast course because of how the elevation profile is. From year to year, people tend to finish ahout 7-8 seconds off their track mile PR.

If this is true I'd say 4:10 is probably possible for track

I'd assume you have better fitness than your 4:17 road from 3 weeks ago as well. But I'd say your current 800 / 5000 (or 3000 if you'd know) is more important - as you're certainly training like a 5k/10k runner, you probably have better strength than most. I think decently well trained people run at (800 + 10s) as their average 880y split as their mile pace, and very aerobically strong people run about 6-8 seconds off - i.e. 1:53 can be 4:00 flat, but that'd probably require 13:30 strength.

Just from these workouts, I'd guess 1:54-55 / 4:06-08 / 8:20 / 14:25. But, like post #2, I think aiming to split halfway in about 2:04-05 as comfortably as possible would be ideal - you can make up a lot of ground with a fast final 400

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Predict mile - sub 4:10 possible?

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