Girls NXN 2024 predictions 1. Mountain Vista CO 2. Air Academy CO 3. Buchanan CA 4. Lone Peak UT 5. Niwot CO
Really? Vista? I don't think so, probably not top 5 next year. Even Without Bethany Air Academy can still win. AGAIN
Vista is receiving a transfer from IMG Academy. They have another transfer from Valor Christian who was out last fall due to injury. I read somewhere that they will be receiving more transfers
It is likely that Buchanan and Santiago will be the teams to make it. JSerra probably will not, it doesn't look like they will be that good next year. I expect Ventura could beat JSerra as well.
It is likely that Buchanan and Santiago will be the teams to make it. JSerra probably will not, it doesn't look like they will be that good next year. I expect Ventura could beat JSerra as well.
California will be VERY interesting to watch this year.
Buchanan, JSerra, Santiago, Ventura and Trabuco are all going to be fighting for 3 or maybe 4 spots. It is definitely the most exciting battle in the country.
Buchanan: had a disappointing track season, and some of their superstars have not improved over the past year...but they're so deep and talented and are still the team to beat in CA. Plus, they have 2 incoming Freshman girls coming in who are excellent. If Lomelli, Torosian, Sundgren, and Buckely improve this Summer and stay healthy, and if their youngsters emerge, they'll be a threat to not only go to NXN, but to get on the podium.
JSerra: The lost Summer Wilson, but just like Buchanan, they're VERY deep. Tasser, Packard, Elbaz, Polay, Garcia, Holly are all back, and they also added a new star Freshman (Streadbeck), and have a couple of last year's Freshies who will improve. They're still a lock for NXN. Not having a dominant top runner hurts them, but might also push for a competitive environment where they all improve.
Ventura: Like many of the top CA teams, they were 1 runner away from being a contender for NXN. They're getting that girl, with a very good transfer coming in (I won't share who it is). She may push them to top 5 in the Country. With Sadie's dominance and the rest of her 4x800 team also likely to run faster 3 mile times this year, they'll be outstanding...but will Sadie choose to go back to NXN? She loves her teammates, but this New Balance NIL superstar has nothing to prove by returning to a Nike race in muddy Oregon.
Santiago: Only lost their #4 runner from last year to graduation. Blade appeared to have some struggles in track, but then she won Nationals in the 3200. Combe has also emerged as an absolute superstar. Blade and Combe may be the 2nd best 1-2 punch in the country behind Hedengren and Alder at Timpview. They have 3 other very good sophomores (now Juniors), including Davis who was All-State and a Sophomore (Hill) who was injured last year but may be a big factor.
Trabuco Hills: Barker is obviously elite, and may be a threat to beat Blade in D1, despite Barker's rough track season. If she's healthy, and Trabuco's 2026 girls continue to improve (Watts, Desormeau, Bayles), they'll be good, but they need a fifth. Guess what? They got her. An incoming transfer (I won't say who) will help a lot.
Have to go with MV on this one. No way with their 3-7 that AAHS is going to be even 3rd. Niwot is going to be a barely 2nd.
The only team in the top 10 who didn't lose ANYONE is Mountain Vista. AAHS shouldn't fall too far, with only losing their #1. Niwot is the one who should fall out, losing 4 of their top 7 to graduation.
Here's a list of Seniors lost this year in the top 10 teams, in order of their 2023 NXN Finish:
Here's how the 2023 NXN would translate to 2024 basedf on their NXN times last year. These numbers are after eliminating seniors.
If a team was left with less than 5 scorers, I assigned 100 points to each missing spot.
Since the course at NXN was a disaster, and not a true measure of likely team success next year, I'll do another analysis soon, using 5K PR's for each athlete.
Either way, Air Academy should absolutely dominate NXN 2024.
It is likely that Buchanan and Santiago will be the teams to make it. JSerra probably will not, it doesn't look like they will be that good next year. I expect Ventura could beat JSerra as well.
California will be VERY interesting to watch this year.
Buchanan, JSerra, Santiago, Ventura and Trabuco are all going to be fighting for 3 or maybe 4 spots. It is definitely the most exciting battle in the country.
Why only 3-4 spots? There's no rule saying all those teams can't all go to NXN if they prove on the course to be some of the fastest teams in the country?
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
forgot to include a word
Why only 3-4 spots? There's no rule saying all those teams can't all go to NXN if they prove on the course to be some of the fastest teams in the country?
Previously, I expected a 3rd Colorado team to take one of those at-large spots before I saw that Niwot lost so many seniors.
California had 3 go last year (Buchanan, Santiago, J Serra). With the talent in CA this year, they're likely to get 2 at-large bids and send 4 teams to NXN.
I predict: Buchanan, Ventura, Santiago, J Serra. In that order. Watch what all of these transfers and Freshman do for each of these teams. It's gonna be fun to watch.
The Clovis invite this year should be the most entertaining girls race EVER. Seriously. The days of Buchanan vs Great Oak dynasties will have nothing on the excitement of this 5-way battle.
Somebody tell Rich Gonzales to get his cameras ready to follow these girls in 2024. We need to see an new documentary!