That was the type of input I was interested in, so thanks. Despite the whimsical thread title, I’m genuinely interested in the topic, meaning the case for using CS as a training basis. If I have to take a shellacking from proponents like you to explore it, I’m here for it. So too is lexel, even if he doesn’t reply haha
I’m going to Tarantino my response and start with your last paragraph first. Yes, I’ve fit my data to different models. I’ve used friends data, elite athletes data, even lexel’s data, seriously. So I’m not just coming at this from a narrow and theoretical perspective. There are a lot of different platforms and models out there, all of which I can’t possibly account for. I have however, over the years, done what you suggested. I’ve compared performance using MAS, CS, LT, 10K pace, 5K pace, 400m pace, 200m pace as a single basis and in combination for a multi-basis approach. Point being, I’ve not just used what exists but also tried non-standard approaches and derivations. If you’ve the curiosity (and in some instances, skillset), you can create almost any type of method you want for analyzing/tracking training and performance.
I’m not familiar with all those names you mentioned in your second paragraph. I do know P&T and am familiar with extended CP though, and while I can’t say I’ve seen their algorithm based on the function/fitting, it seems to be P&T (i.e. a piecewise regression method), correct? Knowing P&T, they are not using CS, defined as the steady-state speed determined by the 2 parameter hyperbolic model, they use MAS (defined as 7 minute speed), correct? So, using MAS and a few bio-energetic parameters, they estimate the speed/power one can maintain for durations of seconds out to about 4 hours. I’ve personally modeled it out to 3 hours, as my marathon time is sub 3. It’s indeed an interesting approach. It would also seem to support that one doesn’t need to use CS to accurately model the speed-duration relationship across a broad spectrum.
Bringing it back to you advising me on how to be a better skeptic… I wouldn’t say CS doesn’t work, I would say it doesn’t work any better. For example, a simple 2 parameter power function (one parameter representing your speed, the other parameter representing your endurance) would be more accurate at capturing performance across the spectrum you’re time trialing for and place none of the time restrictions on the range of durations you use, than the 2 parameter hyperbolic model. It will also more accurately extend to estimate performance across a broad range of distances, 100m-marathon. Drawing on the example of you and your partner, those differences (one being more slow-twitch than the other) would be captured by the speed and endurance parameters and not require CS as a basis.
P.S. Not that I’m inclined to defend Daniels VDOT, but do you know if he used the %VO2max as calculated from the average economy curve or the individuals economy curve from testing to develop the fractional utilization curve? Regardless, the bi-exponential function that he uses can be modified, just as extendedCP or the standard hyperbolic curve would be, with updated performance data. The result being more customized training paces and more accurate performance predictions across the 1500m-marathon. I’ve personally done this so can speak to it, practically.