I don't think Valby has a good shot at the 5k team even if she is in 14:40s fitness as she likely will be outkicked for the top 3 spot with a winning time > 15 mins
10k is still the best bet if she can somehow get the standard
. . . with Cranny's 14:46 and Schweizer's 14:48 just moments ago at PTF.
New outdoor pr for Elise, finally improved upon the 14:48.02 she ran at the BTC intrasquad race four years ago.
Overall pr remains 14:33 from BU indoors two years ago.
For Karissa, 3rd fastest time ever behind her 14:26 at that 2020 BTC intrasquad race (three seconds behind Shelby's 14:23 then-AR) and her 14:45 from the 2019 WC finals in Doha. (Karissa has never raced an indoor 5k since turning pro back in 2018).
Should also include Ella Donaghu and Whitney (Orton) Morgan in the mix as dark horses for the 5k team. Both looked pretty good tonight in the 1500, especially Ella with a new 4:07 pr to bookend her recent 14:58 pr. And Whitney, with that 8:30/3k pr from last year's Millrose Games, beating Elise amongst others, that's impressive.
I don't think Valby has a good shot at the 5k team even if she is in 14:40s fitness as she likely will be outkicked for the top 3 spot with a winning time > 15 mins
10k is still the best bet if she can somehow get the standard
She has a good chance to make it by world ranking if she is top 3 at Usatf. 31:30 plus place points for top 3 would probably do it.
I don't think Valby has a good shot at the 5k team even if she is in 14:40s fitness as she likely will be outkicked for the top 3 spot with a winning time > 15 mins
10k is still the best bet if she can somehow get the standard
She has a good chance to make it by world ranking if she is top 3 at Usatf. 31:30 plus place points for top 3 would probably do it.
Was thinking the same after tonight's PTF.
Likely 2nd to Kelati in the 10k. Likely 3rd to Cranny & Schweizer in the 5k.
However, can't get over the feeling that Parker has created such a unique set of circumstance for herself, that former NFL head coach Bill Parcells' famous quote "you are what your record says you are" applies to her, yet does not apply to her.
The former, because all she's done is win. Win big.
The latter, because her 14:52 & 30:50 prs were solo efforts against inferior competition. Pretty sure the consensus amongst those who have seen her race would be: if the competition was better, or if she was in a time trial races against pros, those prs would be long gone.
And, can Parker kick? She closed her NCAA 5k in 69. Cranny & Schweizer closed their PTF 5ks tonight in 69. Does Parker need to have a faster close to make the Oly Team, 5k or 10k?
At this point, have an open mind. Don't know which event is her favorite or best or if she has a better chance at top-3 in one or the other.
Just over the moon about what's to happen in two weeks time.
. . . with Cranny's 14:46 and Schweizer's 14:48 just moments ago at PTF.
Both appeared to be "x" factors given Cranny's training/living changes and Karissa's injuries.
But no longer.
Since she has not entered the 5k at this point, appears Kelati will only race the 10k.
Also, not expecting anything from Andrews since she's been out for so long.
So . . .
If ESP chooses to race the 5k at the Trials, there's your Olympic Team.
If not, looks like Henes is next in line.
After her . . . Valby.
I agree with most of this except I have Valby ahead of Henes (if Valby actually runs the 5000m) since Henes hasn’t shown us anything in a long while that she would be able to hang and then kick.
I don't think Valby has a good shot at the 5k team even if she is in 14:40s fitness as she likely will be outkicked for the top 3 spot with a winning time > 15 mins
10k is still the best bet if she can somehow get the standard
She has a good chance to make it by world ranking if she is top 3 at Usatf. 31:30 plus place points for top 3 would probably do it.
. . . with Cranny's 14:46 and Schweizer's 14:48 just moments ago at PTF.
Both appeared to be "x" factors given Cranny's training/living changes and Karissa's injuries.
But no longer.
Since she has not entered the 5k at this point, appears Kelati will only race the 10k.
Also, not expecting anything from Andrews since she's been out for so long.
So . . .
If ESP chooses to race the 5k at the Trials, there's your Olympic Team.
If not, looks like Henes is next in line.
After her . . . Valby.
Henes looked like she was having difficulty... After she took over pacing tonight she slowed to 15:04 pace, and then Cranny and Schweizer had to drop 69s to get back on track and they caught Hassan. It isn't clear to me that she will be competitive in the 5k. I would put Valby ahead of her right now.
Really impressed with Cranny and Schweizer though. They put on that surge to get back on pace in the middle of the race which wasn't ideal. Cranny looked very strong. Schweizer will probably continue to improve between now and the trials too...
4:08 from Morgan doesn't say much since her PR is 4:05.
ESP has entered the 5k. Kelati has not entered yet. That is a race I would like to see.
She has a good chance to make it by world ranking if she is top 3 at Usatf. 31:30 plus place points for top 3 would probably do it.
Was thinking the same after tonight's PTF.
Likely 2nd to Kelati in the 10k. Likely 3rd to Cranny & Schweizer in the 5k.
However, can't get over the feeling that Parker has created such a unique set of circumstance for herself, that former NFL head coach Bill Parcells' famous quote "you are what your record says you are" applies to her, yet does not apply to her.
The former, because all she's done is win. Win big.
The latter, because her 14:52 & 30:50 prs were solo efforts against inferior competition. Pretty sure the consensus amongst those who have seen her race would be: if the competition was better, or if she was in a time trial races against pros, those prs would be long gone.
And, can Parker kick? She closed her NCAA 5k in 69. Cranny & Schweizer closed their PTF 5ks tonight in 69. Does Parker need to have a faster close to make the Oly Team, 5k or 10k?
At this point, have an open mind. Don't know which event is her favorite or best or if she has a better chance at top-3 in one or the other.
Just over the moon about what's to happen in two weeks time.
I agree. Given the circumstances she could make Top 3 in the 5, maybe even being able to not have to lead it most of the way. But if she is not the one to go out and push the pace, how slow will those initial laps be? Can she beat Schweizer and Cranny in a 15:05 race? And if it is that slow, does she open the door to other kickers (e.g., Tuohy, Andrews, etc.)?
And, can Parker kick? She closed her NCAA 5k in 69. Cranny & Schweizer closed their PTF 5ks tonight in 69. Does Parker need to have a faster close to make the Oly Team, 5k or 10k?
I think you have to define kick. Can she close in 66s? Probably not. But will she need to? She can probably close in a low 4:4X mile which will elminate most of the competition if it is a faster race to begin with.
And, can Parker kick? She closed her NCAA 5k in 69. Cranny & Schweizer closed their PTF 5ks tonight in 69. Does Parker need to have a faster close to make the Oly Team, 5k or 10k?
I think you have to define kick. Can she close in 66s? Probably not. But will she need to? She can probably close in a low 4:4X mile which will elminate most of the competition if it is a faster race to begin with.
But who will make it “a faster race to begin with”? ESP, Schweizer and Cranny have the standard, so they have no incentive to push the pace.
I agree. Given the circumstances she could make Top 3 in the 5, maybe even being able to not have to lead it most of the way. But if she is not the one to go out and push the pace, how slow will those initial laps be? Can she beat Schweizer and Cranny in a 15:05 race? And if it is that slow, does she open the door to other kickers (e.g., Tuohy, Andrews, etc.)?
I doubt Valby can beat Cranny in a slower race, no. Not in the final, maybe in a prelim. Cranny, ESP, Andrews have real speed. And others. It is not in her interest to turn it into a 1500m race with them.
Tuohy is a complete unknown right now. It is possible she might get bumped from the starting line at this point because faster times are being run, like Halladay Lowry 15:02 tonight.
I agree. Given the circumstances she could make Top 3 in the 5, maybe even being able to not have to lead it most of the way. But if she is not the one to go out and push the pace, how slow will those initial laps be? Can she beat Schweizer and Cranny in a 15:05 race? And if it is that slow, does she open the door to other kickers (e.g., Tuohy, Andrews, etc.)?
I doubt Valby can beat Cranny in a slower race, no. Not in the final, maybe in a prelim. Cranny, ESP, Andrews have real speed. And others. It is not in her interest to turn it into a 1500m race with them.
Tuohy is a complete unknown right now. It is possible she might get bumped from the starting line at this point because faster times are being run, like Halladay Lowry 15:02 tonight.
I think in any of those scenarios, in a race between ESP, Cranny, Schweizer and Valby, the latter not having the standard while the first 3 do, puts the latter in the position that she becomes the person, by default that ends up eventually having to push the pace, because the first three can just sit and wait it out, since they are probably the 3 fastest kickers in the race, as well, particularly if they have the benefit, by default, of being able to draft off the one that has to lead.
I doubt Valby can beat Cranny in a slower race, no. Not in the final, maybe in a prelim. Cranny, ESP, Andrews have real speed. And others. It is not in her interest to turn it into a 1500m race with them.
Tuohy is a complete unknown right now. It is possible she might get bumped from the starting line at this point because faster times are being run, like Halladay Lowry 15:02 tonight.
I think in any of those scenarios, in a race between ESP, Cranny, Schweizer and Valby, the latter not having the standard while the first 3 do, puts the latter in the position that she becomes the person, by default that ends up eventually having to push the pace, because the first three can just sit and wait it out, since they are probably the 3 fastest kickers in the race, as well, particularly if they have the benefit, by default, of being able to draft off the one that has to lead.
So that means Valby wants the race as fast as possible, so she will be forced to click off 70-71s from the gun, and ESP, Cranny and Schweizer will sit on her. Maybe in the heat, she might be able to outlast Cranny or Schweizer. But they have no incentive to help with pacing duties.
I think in any of those scenarios, in a race between ESP, Cranny, Schweizer and Valby, the latter not having the standard while the first 3 do, puts the latter in the position that she becomes the person, by default that ends up eventually having to push the pace, because the first three can just sit and wait it out, since they are probably the 3 fastest kickers in the race, as well, particularly if they have the benefit, by default, of being able to draft off the one that has to lead.
So that means Valby wants the race as fast as possible, so she will be forced to click off 70-71s from the gun, and ESP, Cranny and Schweizer will sit on her. Maybe in the heat, she might be able to outlast Cranny or Schweizer. But they have no incentive to help with pacing duties.
This is why I suggested on another thread that Valby’s best play here might be to just run the 10000m.
So that means Valby wants the race as fast as possible, so she will be forced to click off 70-71s from the gun, and ESP, Cranny and Schweizer will sit on her. Maybe in the heat, she might be able to outlast Cranny or Schweizer. But they have no incentive to help with pacing duties.
Yes. The heat is definitely something that works in Valby's favor though. The hotter it is, the better her chances of making the team.
I agree, they won't help with pacing duties. I could see ESP getting sick of a slow pace and just going for it though, if it comes to that.
So that means Valby wants the race as fast as possible, so she will be forced to click off 70-71s from the gun, and ESP, Cranny and Schweizer will sit on her. Maybe in the heat, she might be able to outlast Cranny or Schweizer. But they have no incentive to help with pacing duties.
This is why I suggested on another thread that Valby’s best play here might be to just run the 10000m.
But nonetheless, it is a tough call for her team, particularly if she finds the 5000m more in her comfort zone.
So that means Valby wants the race as fast as possible, so she will be forced to click off 70-71s from the gun, and ESP, Cranny and Schweizer will sit on her. Maybe in the heat, she might be able to outlast Cranny or Schweizer. But they have no incentive to help with pacing duties.
Yes. The heat is definitely something that works in Valby's favor though. The hotter it is, the better her chances of making the team.
I agree, they won't help with pacing duties. I could see ESP getting sick of a slow pace and just going for it though, if it comes to that.
Yes, of the four, ESP has demonstrated a far superior kick and economical aerobic fitness, so when she does go, she will end it. But that could be as late as 400m to go.
Yes. The heat is definitely something that works in Valby's favor though. The hotter it is, the better her chances of making the team.
I agree, they won't help with pacing duties. I could see ESP getting sick of a slow pace and just going for it though, if it comes to that.
Yes, of the four, ESP has demonstrated a far superior kick and economical aerobic fitness, so when she does go, she will end it. But that could be as late as 400m to go.
I could foresee the possibility of Valby lining up and starting the race to see how it is going to play out, and then dropping out to save it for the 10000m. But to even get to that point, she will have first had to run a 5000m prelim. So depending upon her recovery from Nationals, the best call might be to forego the 5000m and just save it all for the 10000m.
This is why I suggested on another thread that Valby’s best play here might be to just run the 10000m.
But nonetheless, it is a tough call for her team, particularly if she finds the 5000m more in her comfort zone.
Find myself agreeing with everything you guys have stated, both for and against choosing one race over the other.
And, still left wondering if PV might be so preternaturally talented at this point that she is able to front run a 14:40 or faster and simply runs away from Cranny, Schweizer, ESP if she races, just like her NCAA 5k race on Saturday.
With no Qs in PV's back pocket, she's relying completely on WA rankings points -- meaning, she doesn't control her own destiny. Could win both races at the Trials yet not make it to Paris in either.
Which might force Will Palmer/coach & her to go for broke and chase the Qs -- and hope it all works out.
Fascinating scenarios.
Anyway, there has also been mention made of potential hot weather in Eugene on race day.
At this point (6/10), long-range forecast for Eugene looks pretty good: highs of 78 -79 deg F at the start of the Trials, partly cloudy, 10 mph breeze. Pretty similar to this past Saturday's NCAA women's finals, maybe a degree or two cooler. 5k semis on 6/21 @ 6:22 pm PDT with finals on 6/24 @ 7:09 pm PDT. Guessing mid-high 70s, partly cloudy, slight breeze. Suspect pollen will bother people more than the weather. At least no worries about a 115 deg F "heat dome" like what happened at the Trials three years ago.