What would a reasonable goal marathon pace/time be, based on my training and recent race results?

Honestly, I like your chances at sub 2:20. 8:30 threshold is pretty impressive, even for the advanced runners on this site

A 5k time is not a good indicator for a Marathon. Run a Half Marathon and get your predictions from that.

A sub 3:30 in the future could be possible, but that's going to take a lot of work and it's still a much better performance than a 22:30 for 5km. Those workout paces are not really a good indicator of marathon race performance (what you can hold and accelerate to in 20-mile Long Run workouts would be though....although you probably shouldn't be doing any 20-mile hard Long Runs unless your mileage is well over 50-55 miles per week...if not 60 +).

I'd pick a fast flat course in cool conditions as well.

I'd also recommend racing 10km-half marathon and getting a better feeling for paces and relative performance goals.

Like if you can't run a sub 1:40 for a half marathon, it's going to be super hard to break 3:30 for a full marathon. So I'd recommend to first focus on training for (and racing) some half marathons and a few 10kms before going after that marathon goal. Stay healthy and have fun!

If you're looking for honesty, no chance 'now' at 3:30. You're 4:10 if all goes well.

That said, with more training and marathon specific training, you will improve and continue to improve.

Best of training!! 👍🏻

If you're serious about really committing to running and want to be a great runner, there are a few things I'd point you to:

1) you don't need to be running 7 days a week at this point, 6 days is perfectly fine and should be for the foreseabble future, especially on 45mpw.

2) do supplementary core work and strength work (strength work mainly being plyometrics) 1-3 times a week depending on where you're at in a training cycle

3) your tempo pace is too slow and your easy pace is too fast. hard days hard, easy days easy.

4) the best thing to maximize your potential is to focus on shorter races for now and build into racing marathons after a few years. a 20:00 5k is more impressive than a 3:40 marathon, it's less hard on your body with your experience and the underdistance speed will make running a fast marathon much easier in the future.

3:30 is out of reach.

Breaking 4 hours on a flat course in fair weather may be possible.

Would be ok prolonging and running a marathon a little later. 5k is worth mid-3:30s at best. The good news is that running 45mpw consistently should lead to some rapid improvement. I wouldn't change much for now. Get the miles in & get in a half in the fall. Marathon late fall or spring. Use the half to gauge where you're at. Can't predict a marathon off of a 5k -- just potential.

Also don't be afraid of an off day here & there, or a down week every so often. As you stack these weeks, pay attention to the body. Missing 1 day is better than missing 1 week.

Thanks, Sage!

I'm willing to put in the work. A sub 3:30 better be possible, because that's just what I have my eyes on right now. I really, and ambitiously, would like to crack 3 hours some time. But we'll cross that bridge when we get there.

I think focusing on shorter distances (5k, 10k, and half) and speed could be a great idea. Do I necessarily have to deviate from the marathon plan I'm following right now, though, and switch to a 5k-oriented plan immediately? Or can/should I finish this out? I've been making great improvements in speed and endurance on this program. So I don't want to bail from the program unless it's absolutely the right thing to do.

Thanks again! I'm having loads of fun and looking forward to running, racing, and improving for a long time.

Thanks!

1. I was already running every day before I "got serious" about distance running, with the goal of losing weight. But only 1-2 miles per day during that time. I still have some additional weight to lose, and the extra cardio really helps. But if you think it'd be better for my recovery, I can take a day off of running per week. It's just so easy to get going! Shoes on, watch on, shorts on, and go!

2. I'm currently in the gym 3-4 days a week as well, and playing tennis 3-4 days a week, too!

3. Really... Hmm. I've been going based on heart rate to obtain these paces. Between 128-144 bpm for easy/recovery runs, and between 150-168 for interval + threshold type of workouts. Does that sound right to you? Do you still suggest I slow + speed things up?

4. Sweet. 19:30 5k here I come! I don't know if I want to wait a few years to get into marathoning... But I will absolutely focus on shorter distances for at least 6 months and reevaluate my fitness then!

Thanks so much!

My tempo/threshold is similar to you, but my easy runs have a cap of 129 and at times can max out somewhere under 120... It takes time to get there, but it is possible

I hope this doesn't sound unreasonably harsh because it's really not your fault. But running does not work like this. I know the books and coaches and videos make it seem very "algorithmic." Just do these seven things, never do those 8 things, follow this schedule, and YOU WILL HAVE THIS PERFORMANCE. The current state of pop-running "media" makes you feel like your question about a marathon performance 12 months from now based on a 5k and a few workouts is an answerable question. It's just not. In your response to Sage, you ask about changing plans, but only if it is "absolutely" the right thing. Nobody can answer any of those questions with any certainty. That won't stop lots of people from pretending to answer with authority! (Me too, I guess.) I just hate to see a guy stressing out about missing a workout or running the "wrong" pace or worried about a race a year in the future cuz it's (mostly) not going to matter until you are at the limits of your potential.

If you're just getting back into running, any running is going to help you improve. How much, how fast? Nobody knows. The knucklehead troll response above about 2:20 might actually be right! The only "wrong" way to train is to do too much and end up burned out or injured. Run easy, run medium, run hard, race occasionally, and pay attention to how you feel while doing those things and you'll begin to understand your potential better than we can. Certainly better than a calculator can. Cheers! Have fun!

A quick update:

I decided to switch to Jack Daniels' 5-10k plan, but I'm starting in Phase 2.

I went out for yesterday's workout, which was

2E, 2 x (8 x 200m w/ 200m rec.), 2E,

and to my surprise, ran the intervals at 5min/mile pace. I didn't think I had that in me, and certainly shows that I've been taking my hard days too easily. I'm looking forward to the progress in the coming weeks and months!

Are you trolling ? You can't be that fast with a 5 k so slow.

Not trolling, but perhaps didn't share the whole picture. I was running them a little slower than 5 min/mile.

Additionally, I showed up late to that 5k and was pinning on my bib for the first quarter mile as I ran! I was also not wearing proper running shoes, but New Balance 530s, which I had been training in up until then.

Here's the Strava link to yesterday's workout: .

strava.com

2 x (8x200) - Dylan R's 8.4 mi run

Dylan R ran 8.4 mi on Jun 11, 2024.

Link:www.strava.com/activities/11630179666

Looking at the data, you can see I ran the intervals between 5:14-6:19 minutes/mile.

I think I'm just very inexperienced with the feeling of pushing hard for a sustained period of time. In my primary sport, tennis, there are lots of breaks between points. Not many sustained efforts. I bet if I can get used to dealing with the pain and gasping, I can have my 5k in the sub-19 or 18 territory by EOY.

But we'll have to see! I'm going to continue to be optimistic about the training and keep at it.