sub 29 10k within 2.5 years

32.40 to 28.59 is practically impossible given any amount of time at your age, unless you were starting from like 10mpw or something.

You haven’t asked for any input but you’ll get some anyway. If you do want suggestions or encouragement it would be helpful to know how long you’ve been running, how much mileage in the couple of years prior to the 32:40 and the 2:34. What is your time like to commit to training. Did you compete in your late teens and twenties?

It’s great to have a goal and I encourage you to work as hard as you can if that’s what makes you happy. It’s also good to be realistic. Without any additional information I think if you got down to 31:30 you’d be doing well. I’d be very surprised to see you run faster than that.

thanks, appreciate the feedback !

it is more likely than not I won't be able to improve all the way to 29. However I like setting up an ambitious goal for myself. There are a lot of intermediate steps like podium at a race or breaking 31 that will be interesting enough to accomplish along the way

I did not compete when I was younger, I was running recreationally maybe once a week average and the occasional race with no competitive aim, until last year when I prepared for a marathon (2h44). I did another marathon this year (2h34). I did not run many 10ks but if I did it given my training and marathon time would have been something like 38 mins (2022) , 35:30 (2023) and then 32:40 this winter.

I would be very disappointed if I dont run below 31:30 in September but we will only know then!

Every day on here im reminded im naturally the worst at running compared to any other sport and yet its what i decided to waste my efforts on 🤣🤣

It’s always worth remembering that people can get on the internet and say literally anything

Quite a target. Not ever one to put someone off a target but this will be very, very difficult. I'm 40+ now (unfortunately) and am up to 100km a week and have got down to a 32:23. But I know for a fact that it's impossible for me to get ever get near your target. But then again I don't think I have any special talent but do train consistently. The jump from 32 to 29 is absolutely huge and I think where I am now, is around when the extra training produces diminishing returns. Good luck though mate.

Bro you would be better to aim at a sub-15 5k

that is more feasible and is a really impressive thing to say, not just to normies - even LRC nerds will be forced to give you props.

I’m assuming by your PRs and desire to go on this sidequest that you may have not gone sub-15 yet or run collegiately.

I myself have set all my PRs in my 30s, thanks to carbon, caffeine and a sort of dogged but not obsessive approach to training. I have run 15:45 ish en route on a pancake flat 8k, about a week later I ran a 4:4X point to point mile with a 20 mph tailwind and I can tell you the mile was harder. Unless you are some sort of middle aged mid-distance god, there is going to be an inflection point around 4:50. 10 seconds slower can be maintained, 10 seconds faster you will quickly go lactic. You’ll need to move that 4:50 to 4:30 somehow (which would probably make you a 4:20 miler), and that is something less trainable than aerobic capacity.

Remember Coebra, the 10:00 steeplechaser that WISHED to earn a trip to the Olympic Trials. Coebra’s training was mediocre. As a competitive masters at the time my training was superior.

Igloi told me of Jim Beatty showing up saying to him I want to go to the Olympics. Igloi replied “you have ticket.”

Training is going to determine what you are capable of, and it seems a very long shot to me.

Given the deluge of realism I am receiving, maybe i'll reconsider !!

first of all, Sirpoc I also follow your progress and I think you will continue to impress us and even yourself

I also understand that the rate of progress will only diminish from now. If I want to stay on track I need to get pretty close to 30mins already next year basically..

why I am still hopeful:

I feel I already made progress since my last PB. Unfortunately it is getting too hot to race now where I live and even to do semi meaningful workouts so I am not able to know precisely where I would be now

I think I have some reserve in the mileage to go from 90ish to 100km in the fall and then 110 etc.. this year is basically my first year of structured training and already having been able to hit a 100km week was a big success in itself. But maybe I overestimate the gains that this will bring in the future.

Yeah I like 5k races but have never run one and sub15 would be a very nice goal. some races where I live are won around 14:50ish times

for some reason where I live (southern continental europe) there is much more interest on 10k and 5k times are pretty meaningless to people, perhaps the reverse in the US

I recently I did my PR for 5k at 16:04 on the track during a 2x6km workout

good point that even with unlimited aerobic capacity improvement I may be limited by speed which I don't possess because a 4:20/4:30 mile definitely seems out of reach for me.

Ignore the haters. Time for triple thresholds 8x a week.

I completely agree with this post. The jump from 32 to 29 is massive. + The dude will get older.

Sirpoc is probably the example of the most progress I think I have seen in a masters runner on this board with doing it sensible and over a longer period of time. No rushing, just a really sensible plan. From extremely average to probably in with a chance of being in with a masters medal in his national championships. Maybe just trying to win a national masters champs in a distance to the OP is more of a realistic but also phenomenal target.

You are very talented. A more reasonable approach would be to improve your training, and see where that takes you. Perhaps consider attending one of the masters world championships, compete at other distances.

If you can do 10x 1k at 3:00 min with 90 sec rest where hr drops to below 130 before next rep you have a shot

I am not a masters yet. My goal is to hit sub 29 exactly when I reach 40 this is why I have 2.5 years.

But I hear you, I am not planning to rush things. sometimes I feel the urge to go quicker on the track but I do think one big competitive advantage we older runners have is patience. I have been injured before (different sport).

2.5 years is a lot of time during which I plan to learn, improve my training, and above all have fun (for example I would be elated just to be on one podium one day, doesn't matter the race).

Got that. Not sure about internationally, but in the States there is a masters category starting at age 30.

Evidently World Masters Track starts at age 35:

world-masters-athletics.org

What are the age categories for Master Athletics? - World Masters Athletics

admin

Athletes aged 35 years and older participate in the following age groups: Age Male age group Female age group 35 ‐ 39 M35 W35 40 ‐ 44 M40 W40 45 ‐ 49 M45 W45 50 ‐ 54 M50 W50 55 ‐ 59 M55 W55 60 ‐ 64 M60 W60 65 ‐ 69 M65 W65 70...

Link:world-masters-athletics.org/sp_faq/219...

sorry you are right.
but I wouldn't be winning jack sh*t in the 35s category ... better luck at 40 if I can improve

also some 35 year olds are still competing at the absolute level. you still also see some >40 yo professionals (Bekele, Tadesse Abraham....) but the idea of an age group championship at 35 feels a bit weird