How should Ethiopians race to win 5000m in Paris?

If you set the pace you basically sacrifice yourself in a 5000 race. That's why nobody does it.

The Tokyo race probably is a better template. Hot humid conditions and sub 13 time, and just hope his legs are tired from the prior races.

the WCs were far too slow.

I think the only way for it to be a competetive race, is for the east africans to do a joint team effort. It seems unlikely, because they have been quite focused on their individual chances in the past, so no single athlete wants to ruin their chances at an individual medal.

The way I see it, all of the east africans would need to work together, and share the burden by taking a couple of laps each at 60-61 seconds, and then see who has most left in the tank on the final lap. For it to that well organized, I think they would need to plan this in advance. It seems unlikely, but perhaps they will consider it. They surely realize that a 3:27 guy with Jakob's running strength, is never going to lose a slower race.

And even if they somehow manage to push a sub 12:40 pace, it is still not a given that Jakob would fade. The truth is, we don't know what his real potential is in the 5000m currently. We only know that he ran 12:48 in 2021, but since then he hasn't run a 5000m for the sake of a fast time. If Jakob returns to his 7:54 shape, it would be extremely hard to shake him off when you are essentially giving him personal pacers until 4600m.

The only thing that might work in their favor, is that Jakob has three 1500m's in his legs, and if the 1500m final goes in 3:27 or faster, that might be enough to diminish him to the point where he can't keep up in a fast 5K.

On the other hand, Jakob has shown in the past a tremendous ability to recover quickly and race multiple races very well, with very short rest time. In Eugene last year he won the 3000m in 7:23 after a 3:43 mile, less than 24 hours apart. In the Olympics he will have two whole rest days after the 5000m semi finals.

I think that the most likely scenario is that the east africans will be too focused on themselves, because many of them will probably be very happy with an olympic silver medal.

Additionally, there is the issue of trust if they want to push a fast pace. If everybody agrees to do it, it shouldn't diminish their individual chances to medal that much, because they are sharing the burden. But - if one "cheats" and decides to save energy, that individual would have better chances to medal than the others. It's similar to the "prisoner's dilemma"

It's worth mentioning that a possible strategy would be to have one runner be a sacrifical lamb, and plan it so that he would be sure to get some financial compensation for giving up his chances. Either way, things would need to be planned.

In summary, I think it's rather unlikely that they push the pace, but I hope they do it because it would be so exciting and it would go down as a legendary race.

They have one shot:

Go out all guns blazing. First 1k sub 2:33, 2k sub 5:05, 3k sub 7:38. They need to sacrifice one man for pacing those first 3ks, but it should provide the remaining two with a gap to the 12:45+ runners.

Now you have two Ethiopians with a gap to the field with 2k to go. Those two are probably Kejelcha and Gebrhiwet. They are similar types who need to keep pushing the pace and the one who gets to draft wins the race. The other will probably finish second, but there's a chance he could also be caught by the field.

If the rans pans out like this (not very likely), what else will happen?

- Who's gonna try to stick with the front group? If someone hangs on when they approach the 3k mark, will it sow doubt about the Ethiopians' original plan?

- If there are one or two non-Ethiopians together with two Ethiopians in the front group, the Ethiopians could use cycling tactics and do alternate surges that one of the others will have to cover. And if one of them manages to break free the other Ethiopian can't do any frontrunning in the chase group, which leaves them susceptible to being caught by the field.

- And who in the chase pack is gonna take responsibility and try to close the gap? If all the medals are up front they've nothing to lose by trying.

Prediction: not enough altruism and not enough balls. The race will go down like we're used to.

You know, Ethiopians are individuals like Jakob, not some faceless, nameless group.

Jakob will have to be injured/sick/fall/get dq:ed/face too warm weather or someone else in the field will have to load up on epo/run the best race of their life.

By the way, let's forget Jakob for a second. One element that isn't talked about enough is the fact that for someone like Kejelcha, Aregawi, Kiplimo, etc, they don't necessarily beat the other guys either in a slower race. Aregawi got 4th in a slow 10k in Tokyo behind Barega, Kiplimo and Cheptegei. He also got 4th in a slow 10k in Eugene behind Barega. Kiplimo got 5th in a slow 5k in Tokyo behind slower athletes. So what I'm saying is that even if we take Jakob out of the equation, some of the Africans are still running sub-optimal strategic races. Kejelcha for example would in almost all scenarios have a better chance of medaling in a faster, time-trial style race, even if he himself has to set the pace. How many times have we not seen him get out-kicked? Aregawi as well would benefit from this style of race (either in the 5k or 10k).

With especially the 5k being so competitive this year, athletes with bad kicks and finishes should really think twice before settling for a slow race. I think its not unlikely that the likes of Kejelcha, Aregawi, Gebrehiwet, maybe Kiplimo and Cheptegei loses to athletes such as Nordås (who's got a great kick, assuming he qualifies), Almgren (fast 800 and 1500m times), Fisher, Grijalva and others in a slow race around 13:00. So, my point is that some of these athletes, regardless of if they think Jakob can hang on, still would greatly benefit from a fast race in order to shake slower athletes that possibly would beat them in a finish.

Now, history has shown us that this is unlikely to happen, but I hope we for once will see a fast 5000m in an Olympic final. I am aware that the OR is still 12:57 by Bekele in 2008, but we are likely to see a Final field where all athletes have PBs better than this. So all it will take is for one of them to set a fast time.

And to the point some people are making that the Africans should collaborate on a time-trial style race, or that Ethiopians for example "sacrifice" someone to set the pace, I think this is unlikely, as people are individuals and will be racing for themselves. Although, we have seen Morocco do this in the past with someone sacrificing themselves for El Guerrouj. Nevertheless, I think it would take for someone to kind of "stupidly" set a high pace or that it happens naturally like we've seen in some championship races. Kipchoge won WC in 12:52 in 2003 with him, Bekele and El Guerrouj setting the pace and swapping places frontrunning. If something like this transpires, I think we can see someone other than Jakob perhaps winning.

I see your point, which history clearly has shown, but I still think Kejelcha, Aregawi, etc still sacrifice themselves in a slow 5000m. Would you not agree?

pick the weakest of the three (perhaps Aregawi) and tell him the good news and bad news.

"The good news, Aregawi, is you get to the run both the 10K and the 5K. Congratulations! The bad news is you have to pace the 5K. You have to run the first 3K under 7:40.

"if you would rather not participate in the Olympics, that is fine. But if you do this and you do a good job as the pacer, it will redound to your benefit when we select our team for the world championships next year."

Would be great news for Kejelcha and Ghebrehiwet. I just don't see the Ethiopian Athletics Federation doing that as they've never done it before (to my knowledge at least). But if they were to be "cynical" and maximize chances of gold I totally agree with you that they should do so.

1. Kejelcha is a much better finisher than you seem to acknowledge (f.ex his 7.23 against Jakob, and WC silver behind Cheptegei). And even Aregawi can kick fiercely under the right circumstances…

2. Yes, Nordås is a kicker.-Almgren not so much; his 1,45 800m from another “training life”.

3. The weather is probably a huge factor -Kejelcha and Nordås are not the same athletes in hot and humid temperatures. Possibly neither Aragawi. And the Ethiopians seem to have a peaking problem as well…

4. We don’t know if Jakob is back to 2023 healthy shape in Paris OG…

Yes i still believe Jakob can win.

Reason nr 1: In august Jakob is in 5000 WR-shape

Reason nr 2: For a lot of countries the olympics is more about medaling. Silver and bronze count a lot. The runners don`t take the risk.

No matter how they strategies, Jakob is winning. I think at this point these guys are having the same mental barrier like they had for Mo Farah. And considering Jakob is 1500m guy, he is close to impossible to beat in 5000m. Kerr will have a better chances to beat Jakob in 5000m compared to most east africans

They should not run the kind of race where there are 8-10 guys still in contention with 600 to go, this increases Jakob's odds of winning. To win, they need to splinter the group 4-6 laps out and leave 3 or 4 guys left with one lap to go. This also might be Grants best shot at a medal as well, to go with the break away group.

NO-ONE will run the final on top notch fresh legs as they will all have to do hard heats three days earlier. Given how hard the competition is this year it's a safe bet that most of the favorites will have to go all out over the last laps in their heats just to qualify for the final. IF by any chance one or two of them will be able to cruise it in on Wednesday it will huuuuge increase their odds of a medal come Saturday. Also the weather might be so hot that it shaves off at least one second per lap. I expect the usual 12:48-12:52 winning time, or a fully tactial race that none of them wants to lead and therefore a 13:30 winning time.

I agree with this. Let Gebriwhet and Kejelcha go fresh for the 5,000 and choose one of the 10,000 runners to double back and set the pace. Can even compensate them financially for it.

Ethiopia has 0 medals in the last 3 global 5,000m finals despite displaying superior fitness on the circuit all year. People can talk about nobody wanting to sacrifice their own race, but its not like they are even medaling with their current strategy, so what is there to lose?

I think Gebrhiwet will win if it's a sub 13 race. His 55/56 closing lap to run 12:36 was very impressive. You'd think that if it was 'only' a 12:55 paced race he'd close even faster in a 54 or 53 high. I'm not so sure Jakob could close in a 54 in a 12:55 race. When Jakob won in 2023 with a 13:11 he closed in 52.5 seconds, but they were a low 13:20 pace going into the final lap. In Eugene 2022 he won with 13:09 with a 53.9 second close. So again, he has won with 52/53 closing speed in 13:09-13:11 races, but Gebrhiwet could likely close in a 54 in a 12:50 type race and I think that would win.

Let's remove Jakob from the equation...guys like Kiplimo, Aregawi and Gebrhiwet have likely zero chance of winning gold if they make it a race slower than 13:05...also Kejelcha (who is a better miler than the previous three) is not one of the favourites as well, in that kind of race.

In other words, if you make it a 13:10 race (like Eugene and Budapest) then all the 13:10 guys (which means everybody in the final, basically) is going to be in contention for gold up to 4200 m (and most also up to 4600 m), so for stronger but slower runners like them, there is no chance to win (even if Jakob doesn't run at all).

Just look at Budapest: the best one of the four that I mentioned finished 5th.

This removes everyone's chance of a gold. This will never happen. You have to remember all of these guys want a gold medal lmao.