The following was written by etposzojka on 4/20/24:
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For any athlete to qualify, they need either the 30:40 time standard, a cross country ranking spot, or a high world ranking in the 10000. There is a priority based on method of qualification, with the time standard at the top, followed by cross country ranking, followed by 10000 world ranking. This means that the number of time qualifiers determines how many 10000 ranking quota spots are available, since the number of cross country ranking qualification spots is always 8.
Right now, there are 15 spots taken by time qualifiers, since each country is limited to 3 entries (both Kenya and Ethiopia have >10 time qualifiers, but can only send 3). For Americans, only Weini Kelati and Alicia Monson have time qualifiers.
The spots numbering 16-23 are reserved for the next 8 highest athletes in the world cross country rankings, of those who have not attained the 10000 time standard. Katie Izzo is the only American qualified this way. It is important to mention that there are multiple athletes qualified in the world cross country quota who have not run a 10000 metre race or who have not broken 32 minutes, and these athletes are likely to be left off their national teams. Also, the top ranked qualifier by cross ranking, Rahel Daniel of Eritrea, has not raced since February of 2023 which is around when the DSD ban was enacted. If these spots are not used by these athletes, they will NOT go to lower ranked cross country athletes, but rather lower ranked 10000 metre athletes. For American purposes, if Katie Izzo is not in the top 3 at the Olympic trials, she will be removed from the cross country quota as long as 3 athletes who beat her would qualify through either the standard or 10000 ranking.
All remaining spots 24-27 will be taken from the 10000m rankings of those who have not qualified through the standard or cross country. The final spot right now is held by Rino Goshima of Japan, and all athletes ranked ahead of her could be sent by their country should they be selected. Fiona O'Keeffe, Elly Henes, and Natosha Rogers are currently ahead of Goshima, and are thus qualified. Realistically however, more Americans will qualify by ranking since two cross country athletes are almost guaranteed to drop (Daniel and Nadia Battocletti, who has said she will not run the 10000), and two more are highly likely to drop, being Veerle Bakker of the Netherlands and Francine Niyomukunzi of Burundi, who were qualified for Budapest but did not run the 10000.
Assuming all four will drop, the next 10000 ranking spots will go to Camilla Richardsson of Finland, Laura Galvan of Mexico, Joan Chelimo Melly of Romania, and Wuga He of China. This would put Elise Cranny and Keira D'Amato in qualified position. However, Richardsson and Melly are qualified for the marathon, and with the marathon being only two days after the women's 10000, they will almost certainly drop the 10000. Their spots would then go to Isabel Barreiro of Spain and Alina Reh of Germany, putting Karissa Schweizer in a qualifying spot as well.
Since the cross country season ended, it is no longer possible to attain a spot that way, but it is still possible to attain the standard or improve world ranking with two good performances from 31 December 2022 - 30 June 2024. I could see someone like Parker Valby easily entering the quota by running a good race at the Trials, since Wuga He would qualify with times of 31:14 and 31:55, and Valby has already run 30:50 worth 1226 points. Even a time slower than 32:00 would probably put her ahead of He (1183 pts) since so many bonus points would be added on if she is top 3. Sara Hall would need to race a 10000 with a performance score of at least 1194 to pass Reh and at least 1204 to pass He. For reference, Natosha Rogers had a performance score of 1189 when she finished third at last year's trials. This of course is considering athletes from other countries do not also improve their rankings or hit the standard, which is still possible.