If you were Elise Cranny, would you do the 1500/5000 double at the Trials or the 5000/10,000?

She should do whatever sounds more fun as either way she has 0% chance of medaling.

True. Maybe she should concentrate on one race instead of finishing way back in 2 of them at the Olympics.

I think the question is more directed at where she more likely to make a team. I’d say she is less than 50% likely to make the 5k team at this point. Kelati & ESP way stronger than her right now. Lots of others will be fighting for that last spot. I’d say <5% to make the 1500 team. And I don’t understand the ranking system well enough to assess how likely she is to make the 10k on ranking. But it’s probably a long shot there, too.

Cranny is much more likely to make the 5K team considering that Kelati may not be in it and although ESP entered she may be focused on the 1500. No one else is a shoe in. Totally wide open for Cranny

From the interview she seems to be in a good mental space, though her fitness is still work in progress. My vote is 5000 / 1500 since 10000 is longer recovery, and she can continue to sharpen for shorter distances.

Oh, please. She has been a non-factor ever since the burritos wore off.

You write like a partisan hack who can't objectively acknowledge facts.

Shelby got banned in early 2021. In 2022, Cranny ran a pb in the 800 (2:00.49), 1500 (3:59.06), 3000 (8:29.95), 5000 (14:33) and 10,000 (30:14). In 2023, she won the 5 and 10 at USAs/

Do you understand what ‘wore off’ means?

a partisan hack? careful, rojo

I wouldn't write Cranny off in the 5k... She won the last two US titles.

Should she do the 1500m or 10k? That is tough because she doesn't have the 10k standard. 1500m is also very competitive. I would lean towards the 1500m if she can get to sub 4 shape by the trials.

5k/10k, esp. with alicia out.

Here's Elise Cranny's qualifying situation in the 10,000:

15 women have the standard, with 8 spots going to XC ranked athletes, leaving 4 spots by world ranking. So she has to have more points than the 4th athlete in by world ranking, which is 1236 points. Cranny's best performance in the qualifying window so far for ranking is 1206, so she needs a 10,000 performance scoring 1266 points or higher. The U.S. Olympic Trials is a B-level meet, which will award 60 points for a win. This means her time at the trials needs to give her 1206 points, and the time that gives this is 30:45.87. Basically she would need to win the trials in a time of 30:45.87 or faster, or place top 3 and run the standard either there or at another meet.

Is Cranny healthy? Like, overall physical health? Not just not being injured.

She was second-to-last at Pre in a pretty fast race. Hiltz, Mackay, St. Pierre, and Johnson are all sub-4:00 runners now, and Cranny didn't flash the speed she showed last year. If she can't front run using her aerobic strength, she has no chance at the 1,500. On the other end of the spectrum, she has shown no signs of even being healthy enough to complete a 10,000, let a long be competitive in one. She may be on the US team by default, but she's not ready to compete at that distance. By process of elimination, I think it has to be the 5,000 for her. Unfortunately, I just think her healthy issues are catching up to her.

Thinking the same. Just the 5k.

Elise was injured quite a bit in college, but hardly at all since then.

Her issues have been overtraining/RED-S which led to inconsistent performances last year and likely were the reasons behind not running the recent Track Fest 5k and LA Grand Prix 1500 races.

Not wanting to race the 10k -- having more control over her racing schedule and preferring to run the 1500 more often -- was one of the reasons she left BTC last year.

And, as stated above, she was just hanging on to the back of the pack in the Pre 1500 race --a couple seconds back of Hiltz, MacKay & Johnson while being six seconds back of ESP -- so the fitness is just not there, much less a kick.

Thus, putting together all these bits of information: going all-in on the 5k at the Trials and not being tempted to race anything else for fear of falling down the RED-S rabbit hole again, is the way I'm reading the tea leaves.

Saying that someone has something like a 40% chance of making an Olympic team doesn’t mean that you’re writing them off. It’s just an acknowledgment that making Olympic teams is very hard to do, especially when you’re not at 100%. ESP & Kelati have been better this year. If they run it, they’re the favorites. Given how they’ve raced lately, I don’t know why they wouldn’t race it. I think they would be strong favorites to pull off their doubles. At her peak, Cranny would be right there with those two. But by her own admission, this has been a rough build up. That leaves one spot to Henes, Valby, Rogers, Schweitzer, Tuohy, and Cranny. Cranny could win that race, but on a great day so could any of the others on that list. That’s not a disrespect to her. It just reflects how difficult it is to make an Olympic team in anything other than perfect circumstances.

5k and 10k. I don't think she can beat ESP, Wiley, Hiltz and some others in the 1500.

Eh I think you all haven’t looked at the schedule. She will have her main focus on the 5000 but there are no rounds for the 1500 until after the 5000 and the 10000 is after as well.

i think she should do the 1500 because she clearly enjoys it more, Jerry never let her do it, and it will help her speed endurance for the 5000. 4:02 in her second race isn’t terrible. She beat McGee, who has made the last 3-4 teams. She could certainly round into 3:58/9 shape in a month or two. Even if she doesn’t, it’s good work for her 5000.

the 10000 at the world stage is just a nightmare at the moment. In the 5000 last year, at least she was in it until the end even if she got her doors blown off in the last bit. In the 10,000 she will be 200m back of the winner. The event is just too strong right now and the people at the top too willing to run 15:00 for the first 5k and then push from there. She just won’t be competitive in it.

To clarify, while she would probably be more likely to make the team in the 10,000 I think she should run her best event (5000) and then her favorite event (1500). No use sinking energy into a 10,000 when it won’t be her focus and on the world level it is her least competitive event.

To elaborate on my first post, if WORLD MEDALS is the primary concern then again it's all a wash.

But for her career I suppose double 5000/10000 US champ is a better look and more profitable than getting the snot beat out of her in the 1500.. ESP, Hiltz, and then a wildcard Sinclair/McGee/Wiley have that team locked up. Although Cranny ultimately is in a better spot than those others as someone like McGee has never shown interest in anything longer