Training Plan Writer's Block (Goal sub 3 in Berlin)

Bad news first 1:28 half is far away from sub 3 marathon. It is something like low 19:xx 5k equivalent.

I personally use the 5k as Benchmark as you can do a time trial instead of a weekly track session without interference to your training block at any point in time.

In my opinion you need to be able to run sub 18:00 5k to make sure to run sub 3 in new york.

Run a 5k time trail in the next few days and see if you can do 17:59

Yes... It'd be different if you were a sub 30-10k guy going in, but at your fitness level there are few if any shortcuts when you're aiming for the sub three hour range for a marathon.

Fair, is this not something I can do in the next 17 weeks though? to be fair I could have probably gone low 1:27s in that recent half, and I was able to do 6x800 at 3:00 on avg with 400m rest and 2x400 at 80 seconds at the beginning of May. Fairly close to Yasso 8x800 imo and I had a few 8's left in the tank.

That workout you did doesn't really mean anything in terms of a predictive marathon time. You've clearly got the capacity to hit your target, but you don't have the fatigue resistance yet. You can certainly build fatigue resistance over the next 17 weeks, but that's really what you need to work on to run your goal time.

Most of what you are reading is outdated, simplified and generalized to the point of lost individualization.

Of course you can run 2:55 on 50mi / week provided you train with gumption. Never under estimate a 10mi run at 6:30/mi. At some point also you need to pile up 600m 2' w 3' walk 200m, but most importantly try not to overthink it.

Agreed. We used to say you need a 18:40 5K and sub1hr25 to run a sub3 marathon.

Obviously that's right on the cusp and much easier to do the race if you're exceeding those.

The question of what to do in the next training block depends on whether the OP has enough speed or needs to improve their LT.

Thanks for this, and makes sense. I need to just run more. Targeting a late Jul 10k or half where is essentially make or break for Berlin

I'd reckon you've got all the speed you need and you need to build your aerobic base.

Your recent 1/2M has you running at 6:40/mile; the marathon at 6:52ish. You need to build up from below that with some 10M Steady runs twice per week. Trying to run at 6:30/mile as someone else suggested will tear you down.

Pitch your your Steady runs aiming for 7min/mile in the early weeks and without needing to work too hard. You should arrive back and feel fresh within five minutes; not sore or aching. As the fitness comes to you, they will get quicker and you will be improving your marathon pace. On the days in between, just run easy recoveries. Occasional set of strides of a small speedwork session to keep in touch with your speed.

Definitely need to improve LT. I have never had issues with track work outs or speed (was 4:25 miler in HS, ran several sub 28 min 8k, and as mentioned 3:00 full in 2021 NYC marathon. Still, I dread tempo/LT work but yeah just need to run more, run faster. Rough plan is to run approx 35-40 on average in June, 40-50 in Jul and see what I can top out at for Aug