D3 XC Nationals 2024 thread

RPI is still gonna be a solid team next year but I don’t see any way that they place better than last year. They lose their (arguably) top guy Corey to a transfer, their third guy Mitchell Dailey, and Jason Gibbons who was usually 5th-7th. They would need a lot of upcoming talent, which is definitely possible, but I wouldn’t count on it.

There is absolutely no chance that Geneseo loses to Cockport at regionals. They may have lost a lot of their top guys, but compare their track times to Brockport’s. Geneseo just has too much depth to not be considered the favorite for the second spot if there even is one.

There is no chance the rankings for the North aren't UWL, UWW and then Stout. Carleton/Macalester will likely be in that mix after Olaf/Stevens Point too.

Regarding RPI, I definitely think they could do it. I think less of this has to do with their own losses, but rather their losses relative to other teams. Cory, Mitchell and Gibbons are obviously big losses, but compare this to other teams. Pomona loses 3/4 all americans + Horsburgh. North Central loses all of their top 4 + Jett. Williams loses Lucey, Lentz, Ratcliffe, Theveny and a whole lot of other guys who would fill in those spots. Poor MIT, who loses everyone from their top 5 at NEWMACS. RPI has some of the best depth from all of these squads to fill in the ranks.

As for the Genny/Brockport battle, I would definitely change my mind if I found out that some of their seniors would 5th year, or if Hagan shows Nick Andrews level times in earlier meets this fall. What I know about Brockport is that they return their entire regionals roster except for Winters-Bona. They also gain a transfer from Union who has run a 14:47 5k

If you compare the 5k PR's of the returners (5k represents the fitness of these athletes better than the 10k I feel)

Brockport:

Smith-14:30.

Zavala-14:43

Alekson (union transfer)-14:47

Kressly-15:01

Killip-15:05

Klinger-15:11

Honorable mention: Montemaro (32:36 10k)

Geneseo returners:

Butler-14:29

Schoen-14:40

McCulley-14:53

Comer-15:06

Taranto-15:07

Honorable mentions: Hagan (3:57 1500) & Young (9:13 3k steeple)

It's a very even matchup. I probably will change my mind about this between now and November, but I see Brockport as a program on the rise that wants to send a team badly and I think this just could be their year. Won't be a walk in the park for sure.

Why Stout over St. Olaf? Williams and Fore are definitely gone, Thomas and Carlson probably gone (unless one/both are 5th yearing and I just didn't know), and I feel the returners from Stout don't have an impressive enough resume to compete with a lot of the other schools in the region and even their own conference.

St. Olaf loses Kelly, Lynn, Curtis and Cote but returns a solid group. 2 underclassmen under 31 in the 10k, 3 more guys who are sub 15 in the 5k (with one even sub 14:30!) along with a 9:00 steepler. Stout, unless there's something I'm unaware of only returns 2 10k guys (a 30:29 & 31:34), with Marszalek being the only returner under 15 in the 5k and no steeplers under 9:10.

Carleton/Macalester probably won't be in the mix. Gabe and Roy are very solid but I'm not convinced that Lyness can make the jump to them on the grass. Not to mention they fall apart after that. Without Melville their next best 5k guy ran a 15:51 this outdoor season. As for Macalester, their 3-4-5 probably won't be as far back as Carleton's but their 1-2, while solid aren't as good as Roy/Gabe. I expect both teams to hover near 10th place alongside the weaker WIACs like Stout, Eau Claire and Platteville.

Also don't count out Oshkosh. Only two losses from last year and they were 6th, and neither of those two were consistently in the top 3 last xc season. They were very close to the 5th place Carleton team that ended up making nationals.

The North will not get 6 teams, even if by far the best region this year. Qualifying criteria is weighted towards regional finish.

2nd in a crappy region is weighted a much greater positive than 5th in a really strong one.

New UWSP coach revived their men's program. They were the WIAC punching bag my last couple years at school. Crazy to see them in the conversation for a NCAA bid.

I think I'd add Platteville to that conversation. Not sure which 5th years will be be back for Stout or Platteville, but rumors of each school having a couple have created a lot of optimism for some of the non-traditional WIAC powers.

Olaf has a good group, but losing a high stick like Kelly and their four other seniors really hurts. Other than Turlington, they seem to be on par with Platteville which could be interesting.

The MIAC thread mentions a Carleton transfer, but he would have to be pretty good to make up for a missing 5th man.

As for taking a 5th over a 2nd, you haven't been paying attention. Ask the South and Atlantic Regions about that.

Happy First Day of XC to All, including the Human Scum that is working so hard to destroy our Once Great Centennial Conference, & to the Radical, Dickinson Hating USTFCCCA in New Orleans that presided over, get this, TWO separate nationals, that awarded Carnegie Mellon and Johns Hopkins, who I never lost to (a quick handshake at a meet, 25 years ago, doesn’t count!), NATIONALS BIDS for “WINNING REGIONALS.” BVA didn’t know when the so-called event took place - somewhere in Big Springs - never beat Dickinson, didn’t have to produce the “conference title” UNFAIR

What 10 schools have the most sub 15 athletes returning? I’m curious how that connects to your top ten list.

We’re looking at that, and I’m going to have a list on that very shortly and I think it’s something that you’ll find interesting. Things really do have a lot to do with the regions and some conferences are going to have different sub-15 runners than others. But I’m coming out within a week or so with a very comprehensive list.

Hearing reports that after a disappointing outdoor track nationals, #2 XC returner in the nation Vince Simonetti has shaved his very hairy back, which should give him the added speed to outkick Christian Patzka on a cold rainy day in Terre Haute and win XC Nationals

Looking at TFRRS and disregarding anyone listed as a senior and a couple transfers I've seen on the socials, here's a rough list*

Wartburg -11

RPI - 10

La Crosse, Whitewater, Johns Hopkins - 9

Lynchburg, North Central, Geneseo, PP, St. Olaf - 5

Amherst, Stout - 4

Claremont - 3

Carnegie Mellon, Brockport, George Fox - 2

MIT - 0

* Disclaimers - these are only outdoor times. I in no way think this is the sole predictor of XC success. Yes, I know your buddy ran 3:46/8:52/29:45 and can crush the 8K, but I didn't include him here if he didn't run a 5K. There are definitely errors based on whether you are listed on TFRRS based on your academic or athletic eligibility.

Might want to change your ranking of geneseo. It’s confirmed that 4 crucial seniors are returning.

Bauman (3:53 1500/24:30 8k)

Hall (24:28 8k)

Wilson (30:16 10k/24:51 8k)

Hillyard (8:59 3k Steeple, XC AA in 2022)

Not sure about gronau but I’ll assume he graduates. Still, Hillyard is a more than suitable replacement and Hagan ran 24:25 unattached last fall at mike woods. I think their incoming freshman class is better than years past. Move em’ up!

Add to this list a comparison of the metrol region...

Haverford - 3

Rowan - 8

New Jersey dominance is coming.

Welp, moving Rowan to my list of top five teams.

From what I've heard, Calvin only loses 1 senior, but brings back Brandan Knepper(14:13/29:40, missed all of 2023 xc/2024 track). Looks like they were pretty injured in track, so we'll see how they do in the fall

Great Cakes - please list your top five cakes. And top three great lakes.

I know they’re not a definitive #1 because La Crosse/Whitewater will be fighting for that spot, too, but it sure is testament to Wartburg’s depth to be ranked #1 in the eyes of the letsrun people after losing one of the best D3 runners ever in Collet.