Kerr looked super strong winning with a 3:45 at the Bowerman mile and beating Jakob for the second race in a row. On the other hand Jakob can claim a win here after running 3:45 as a season opener after coming off an achilles injury over the winter. Team Jakob will claim he still has another gear or two while Kerr is almost at his peak. Nevertheless Kerr has proved twice now he can outkick Jakob both from behind and 600m out from the finish at the front of the race. Jakob may need to push for a world record time to run the kick out of Kerr, and not to mention other speedsters like Wightman and Nuguse.
I'm hoping this will be a race for the ages, perhaps the 1500m equivalent of Rudisha's famous 800m gold in London 2012 where he ran a world record and dragged the rest of the field to massive PBs. What do you think?
Who have you got in the Olympic 1500m?
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43
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I don’t know I think I got Centro.
200 -
Kerr 35%
Ingebrigtsen 30%
Nuguse 10%
Wightman 10%
Hocker 5%
Kessler 2%
Other 8%
98 -
rigby wrote:
I'm hoping this will be a race for the ages, perhaps the 1500m equivalent of Rudisha's famous 800m gold in London 2012 where he ran a world record and dragged the rest of the field to massive PBs. What do you think?
Keep hallucinating...
24 -
The Dirty Duck wrote:
Kerr 35%
Ingebrigtsen 30%
Nuguse 10%
Wightman 10%
Hocker 5%
Kessler 2%
Other 8%
Kessler!! He won’t even be in Paris
91 -
DreamingMate wrote:
Kessler!! He won’t even be in Paris
Okay. That would make him one of many 50-1 longshots who won't be in Paris. But I think he'll be there.
02 -
The Dirty Duck wrote:
Kerr 35%
Ingebrigtsen 30%
Nuguse 10%
Wightman 10%
Hocker 5%
Kessler 2%
Other 8%
35% for non Kerr+Ingebrigtsen seems too high for me. Both of them have a chance to break the Mile WR this season, non of the others seems close.
05 -
rigby wrote:
Kerr looked super strong winning with a 3:45 at the Bowerman mile and beating Jakob for the second race in a row. On the other hand Jakob can claim a win here after running 3:45 as a season opener after coming off an achilles injury over the winter. Team Jakob will claim he still has another gear or two while Kerr is almost at his peak. Nevertheless Kerr has proved twice now he can outkick Jakob both from behind and 600m out from the finish at the front of the race. Jakob may need to push for a world record time to run the kick out of Kerr, and not to mention other speedsters like Wightman and Nuguse.
I'm hoping this will be a race for the ages, perhaps the 1500m equivalent of Rudisha's famous 800m gold in London 2012 where he ran a world record and dragged the rest of the field to massive PBs. What do you think?Jakob was probably satisfied with his race but in know way is he going to claim he won and if he can find another gear, or two, he’ll run sub-3:25 at Paris.
Kerr kicked from 200m out and not from 600m, there is little similarity between strategies in the 800 and 1500m, and Rudisha had gapped the field by the start of the back stretch and had no affect on the performance of other runners in the race.
02 -
hjkiuztr wrote:
The Dirty Duck wrote:
Kerr 35%
Ingebrigtsen 30%
Nuguse 10%
Wightman 10%
Hocker 5%
Kessler 2%
Other 8%
35% for non Kerr+Ingebrigtsen seems too high for me. Both of them have a chance to break the Mile WR this season, non of the others seems close.
If anything it's too low. The field will always have the advantage in a race like the 1500, it's so hard to win as the favorite because it sits at a crossroads between the sprints (where pure ability is king) and the true distance (where good tactics and finishing speed is king). There's a reason there's only been one repeat Olympic champion ever for the men, and it took a significant amount of the competition skipping the games for it to happen.
Personally I would say Kerr has about a 25% chance, Inge a 20% chance, Wightman a 15% chance, Nuguse 10%, and the rest 30% with nobody else hitting double digits. Beamish would have 10-15% (with a good chunk of that taken out of the other favorites, not the field) if he was going to be in the race but I'm guessing he'll choose steeplechase, where he is probably 2nd favorite after El Bakkali.
30 -
I think Girma will be heavily favored over Beamish as well but it would be really cool to see him medal.
20 -
1) Kerr
2) Wightman
3) Jakob
I still want Nuguse to win. I just don't think that he can pull it off.
12 -
my two pennies wrote:
hjkiuztr wrote:
35% for non Kerr+Ingebrigtsen seems too high for me. Both of them have a chance to break the Mile WR this season, non of the others seems close.
If anything it's too low. The field will always have the advantage in a race like the 1500, it's so hard to win as the favorite because it sits at a crossroads between the sprints (where pure ability is king) and the true distance (where good tactics and finishing speed is king). There's a reason there's only been one repeat Olympic champion ever for the men, and it took a significant amount of the competition skipping the games for it to happen.
Personally I would say Kerr has about a 25% chance, Inge a 20% chance, Wightman a 15% chance, Nuguse 10%, and the rest 30% with nobody else hitting double digits. Beamish would have 10-15% (with a good chunk of that taken out of the other favorites, not the field) if he was going to be in the race but I'm guessing he'll choose steeplechase, where he is probably 2nd favorite after El Bakkali.
For me it's too high. Those two are clearly ahead of all the others.
15% for Wightman?
Ingebrigtsen 37,5%
Kerr 37,5%
Nuguse 15%
10% someone else
10 -
Kerr looked super strong winning with a 3:45 at the Bowerman mile and beating Jakob for the second race in a row. On the other hand Jakob can claim a win here after running 3:45 as a season opener after coming off an achilles injury over the winter. Team Jakob will claim he still has another gear or two while Kerr is almost at his peak. Nevertheless Kerr has proved twice now he can outkick Jakob both from behind and 600m out from the finish at the front of the race. Jakob may need to push for a world record time to run the kick out of Kerr, and not to mention other speedsters like Wightman and Nuguse.
I'm hoping this will be a race for the ages, perhaps the 1500m equivalent of Rudisha's famous 800m gold in London 2012 where he ran a world record and dragged the rest of the field to massive PBs. What do you think ?I got this,...
00 -
Kerr 50%
Jakob 30%
Nuguse 10%
Wightman&Tim 5%
5% the rest
01
Of General Interest
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BREAKING: Athing Mu running 800m in Gainesville on Friday at Holloway Pro Classic
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Jakob chugs almost an entire 32-oz sports drink in 6 seconds during interview
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Can we talk about how crazy hard this Olympic marathon course is?
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2024 College Track & Field Open Coaching Positions Discussion
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Parker Valby is making a FATAL mistake by traveling to Switzerland for "altitude training".