1. CMU. Wins again, loses a lower stick runner in Porter plus some of their depth with Hsu/Murphy graduating. Led by strong 1-2 punch of track national qualifiers Coyle & McLaughlin. No podnar during track but I assume he'll be back for cross. Brady, Short and Prower showed good prowess in the 1500 during track and should have enough to compete with the depth of the rest of the league.
2. Tossup, WashU vs. NYU. NYU loses 1 from their top 5 (Brady) while WashU loses 2, Capuano and Eristoff which are more significant comparatively NYU has a better #1 in national qualifier Tobin, and Chen as a solid #2 who would be competitive with Hornung/Daly of WashU. From there it gets a bit shaky for NYU. Andy Taylor was gone during outdoor and their next three were all mid 15:10s in the 5k, which WashU's Bullard and Sanchez can match. My hesitation in giving this spot to NYU stems from the success of WashU's 1500 squad and a solid steeple freshman that could definitely step up. NYU has also been known to underperform at conference during xc.
4. Emory. Might move up if Thompson is doing xc but I'm not sure if he is. Loses two from top 5 I believe, Masterson and Olpin. Karver seems like more of an xc than a track guy, but Cheema put up some spicy times in the 800. Makker had an awesome season and will probably improve a lot in xc. The other freshmen also seemed to underperform a bit in outdoor. Still, a well rounded team that should maintain its place in the middle of the conference.
5. Chicago. Loses low stick in Begley and #4 from nationals in Heron but returns everyone else. List ran a good mile during indoor but has gone very downhill since. Bender was doing well in track until his last two meets where he bombed. Patel and Taubman did pretty well, but Spencer May has only raced once since september and it was at a small home meet during the winter. It's a young team with a lot of potential, but they have to keep their guys healthy and peak them at the right time. Keeping them here for now.
6. Case Western. Only loses Stephen Henry, but that is a loss that will sting. Nathan should have a good year, as the runner up in the conference indoor 5k and someone who was very close to nationals in the 10k. Slater had a decent freshman season and could contend with the depth of superior teams. Gilbert and Tivkaran posted quick mid distance times albeit Gilbert is more proven on the grass. Lombardi was nowhere to be seen after great lakes regionals, not sure what his deal is. Definitely could be higher than this but there's a lot of youth and not enough particular strength in depth or low sticks.
7. Rochester. Loses their lone national qualifier in Spergel, as well as some usual suspects in their top 7 like Gaitanis and Ford. The return of Catania in track arguably cancels out the loss of Spergel, but Yalamanchili was gone during outdoor which takes them back to square 1. Hendricks was filthy at the 800 in track but inconsistent in XC so not sure what'll come from him. McCollum was also gone during track, but all both indoor/outdoor. Will be in rough shape for sure, but they'll find a way out of dead last. I really don't get why they aren't in the liberty league full time, they'd do a lot better in that conference...
8. Brandeis, as per usual. Loses Goff and Nguyen. Carleo tied his freshman self in the 8 and ran a good 1500 and Dia ran a decent steeple. Rieden ran a very solid 800 but not sure if he'll translate that as well as Carleo. Aside from that, a decent 1500/steeple from Janicki. Maybe they could compete with Rochester to avoid last, I honestly think they'll narrow the gap to Rochester, but ultimately the place will be the same. Join the NEWMAC for crying out loud
