Cursed marathon buildup: goal pace and final workout?

Seems to me 6:50ish is a reasonable pace. As you know, that could mean 6:48 or 6:56, but somewhere in that range.

Everything looks good, but it will come down to something that is 100% out of your control, and that's the weather.

The weather has a bigger impact on marathon performance than most other distances. No matter how spot on your training is, and how dialed in you are to the pace, if you get garbage weather you are toast.

I would not want to be signed up for a marathon any time in late May or early June. Just too big of a chance for hot weather and for me that is doom.

Good luck

We're a bit too far out for the first weather prediction, but a good guess at this point is 55-65 F at start/finish, 6-10 mph winds, mostly sunny. Out of 4 previous races (10K/HM), I've gotten absolutely perfect conditions twice (50s, overcast, low wind), great conditions once (similar, just sunny), and once with terrible conditions (wind over 20 mph). It's actually the wind I'm worried about most.

Appreciate the detailed write up. I'd be interested to know how you felt at the end of your long MP tempos?

2:58:11 prediction. Prove me wrong. (go faster)

After the 14 miler, I felt like I'd finished a serious effort, but I didn't feel horrible. My HR didn't spike up and the effort remained basically consistent. The pace felt slow for the effort, like what I'd do mid-buildup rather than a month out.

The 15 miler felt like a stretch. The pace was faster (in Vaporflies), and even if my HR didn't go any higher than in the 14 miler, I was pushing harder. Recovery from both was similar.

For a final workout, a few days ago I ended up doing 3mi/2mi/2mi/1mi/800/400/200/200 with ample rest, getting progressively faster (6:45 > 5:45 or so on the 200s). It's almost the only maintenance work on paces faster than MP I've been able to do this buildup. I'll probably do a few more MP miles on Saturday.

The initial forecast looks pretty good (58-63, wind 10 mph, chance of light rain). We'll see what actually shows up on race day. I'll post the results here, of course.

So, it turns out that a 15-mile MP tempo 3 weeks out in supershoes is a pretty good guide to marathon fitness.

For anyone who's interested: I ran 2:57 (6:45 pace overall average), with a 2 minute positive split (close to 1:27:30/1:29:30). Good enough for the age group win. I thought I nailed the logistics pretty well, with a high-carb, low-residue diet for 2 days leading up to the race and just enough time for a short warmup jog and a portapotty stop before the race. I didn’t make any truly dumb pacing decisions (fastest mile was 6:34). I took one gel just before the race and finished off two more during it (taking half a gel at miles 4, 6, 10 and 17, which was about all the carbs I could stomach during the race). No sudden bonk.

But the weather was unfortunately beautiful, going from mid-50s to mid- 60s during the race and sunny the whole way. I drank all the water I could get at the aid stations and needed it. The wind picked up at the end too, which mostly was a cooling cross-breeze, but the last mile was directly into 15 mph wind.

My average pace for each 5-mile segment was 6:41, 6:41, 6:37, 6:46, 6:56, then 7:13 for mile 26. The race was kind of crowded for the first 10 miles, but I was able to run my line and didn’t add much extra distance. There were good groups around my pace the whole way, and I was able to move up from one group to the next if the pace slowed. A few people did better, but most people blew up worse than I did after mile 20. My heart rate rose gradually the whole way, from 152 at mile 2 to 163 at mile 24, then bumped up to 168 by the end. Over the last 6 miles I went from feeling like I was running a marathon, to intensely wishing I was not running a marathon, to wondering if I would stay upright. My legs were pretty trashed, but I didn’t get any electric-shock leg cramps.

So I think I ran pretty close to what was possible. Maybe I could have snuck under 2:57 if I had been more patient, but not by much. I lost some time to the warm weather, but more to the weird buildup with inconsistent mileage and not enough workouts.

And the other issue is that I’m just not a marathoner. If you believe in age grading, this was my best marathon yet, but the last six miles just sucked, and my time is only the equivalent of a 1:25 HM. Compare that to last year when a weaker buildup and a much more moderate effort got me to 1:22. I’m just much better suited to 10K-HM distances. I love marathon workouts, but I hate the last 6-10 miles of the race. It may be the last distance that I could conceivably still hit a lifetime PR, but it would mean rolling the dice on the perfect buildup and perfect race conditions, and I’m not sure if I can stomach the thought of another marathon build anytime soon.