Woody Kincaid, Joe Klecker, Paul Chelimo, Sean McGorty and Grant Fisher won't make the US 5K team

If you limited it just one of these guys then maybe you'd have a decent prediction. All of them? No chance. A healthy Grant Fisher is almost as much of a lock to the team as Nuguse in the 1500

Horrible prediction

Interesting, so in your view who makes the team?

Fisher and Teare are clear favorites

Provided Nico is not exhausted from a long season, he is 3rd pick.

I think they should have written that as well.

I think it would leave Teare, Young, Blanks, Nuguse, Nur, Beadlescomb.

I'm not sure why everyone is going ga-ga over Teare after this 12:54. It's certainly encouraging but the reality is 1.42 seconds behind FIsher. At the last Trials, if you were 0.13 behind Fisher, you wouldn't have made the team. In fact, in that race, Teare was closer to Fisher than he was last night (1.07 seconds back) and he didn't make the team.

If I'm all of these guys, I'd be very worried that Nuguse runs the 5000 for kicks and giggles after making the 1500 team. In a tactical 5000 at the US level, he might end up being like Jakob is at the world level.

I predict that at least two of the people on your list won't make the team.

Fisher is making the team.

I no longer think McGorty or Chelimo are anyone's favorites to make the team. I wouldn't be surprised if Kincaid and Klecker didn't make the team but would still bet on them if it came to it. Fisher is just about as much of a lock as you can get

Hasn't nuguse (and ritz) openly discussed how much Yared doesn't like the 5? The indoor 5k was more of a strength test and test a longer event. The strength of the 5k will help with the rounds of the 15. I would be shocked too see Yared run another 5k this year.

Ritz also doesn't want to double dip athletes in the same event from the same country. Seeing as Yared would be competing with Joe for a 5k spot when Kleck won't be 100%.

My US 5k team is Fisher, Teare, and Abdi... Blanks can throw his name in there too when he shows his fitness again.

Probably because he ran 12:54? Making him the 4th fastest in U.S. history. And he was 1-3 seconds behind the best from East Africa, with 1 or 2 possible exceptions, suggesting he could likely go even a little faster in a faster race. It doesn’t hold up logically to compare his distance behind Fisher to the 2021 Trials; Fisher ran 13:27 at the Trials and 12:53 last night. If Fisher ran 12:46 and Teare ran 12:49, he’d be twice as far behind Fisher but obviously it would still bode well for Teare and speak to his fitness.

My hope, and my guess, is that Teare’s entire 2023 outdoor season is a past episode that we shouldn’t let affect our appraisal of his chances at these OTs. I think he’s in a much better place now physically and psychologically. So couple low-12:50s strength with the ability to close a tactical 1500 in 51.x/25.x like we saw in the ‘22 U.S. Champs, and he seems to have the tools to make the 5k team this year.

None of us can say with any confidence who will make the 5k team, which is a great position to be in and speaks to the current level of U.S. distance (at 1500-10k, at least). That said: 1. Fisher 2. Teare 3. Young sends Nur home devastated. Kincaid will be not so devastated having already made the 10k team with Fisher and Young. 1500 goes to form with Nuguse, Hocker and Kessler—and I do think Sahlman is the danger-man, with his 400/800 wheels and running 3:33.96 in the rain to totally spank the UW guys.

Agreed. I don’t see why rojo would think Nuguse at the U.S. level would be like Jakob at the international level given how he was handled by Kurgat and Mills by ~4 seconds at BU. It seems apparent that 5k has always been just outside Nuguse’s real comfort zone. I think both he and Kerr are world class from 1K to 2mi. but not really at 5k (well, if you want to say 13:02 is indeed world class I would understand).

Grant will 100%

I think it's because he runs world class 5000 times and has world class 1500 times, which is a formula for success in championship 5000s.

Who wins a race a month before the championship should not be part of your calculus. Winning yesterday was fun and maybe encouraging for the winners, but it should not have been anyone's primary goal. The goal at this point in the season is to race hard and fast, but not to take any chances by running absolutely all out.

Rojo always the most silly analysis. 1.42s as justification is insane.

Teare has run 3:32 in the 1500m and 12:54.

Grant, most likely, would continue to beat Teare in time trials, but at the USOT, it’s not a time trial.

I'll explain my reasoning.

Klecker - didn't make it last year healthy, so won't make it with some missed time this year.

kincaid - didn't race tonight, which suggests something is off. Besides the Ten this past March where he was the third American and several seconds behind the other two, he hasn't had a great race since his hot streak in early 2023.

Chelimo- just ran 13:25 well back in race won in 12:56. seems like father time has caught up to him

McGorty- could only make it to 4k at 13;20 pace at Oregon twilight before dropping out only 6 weeks before the trials.

The only bold prediction out of the bunch is Fisher not making it and if it's a ~13:30 race, there are several others with a better kick (Nur, Young, Teare, Hocker, Beadlescomb, Nuguse if he runs it). He won't have Evan jager pacing him as he had for his only national title and pushing the pace in what will most likely be warm weather after a 10k double double is not ideal.

my picks are 1. Nur 2. Nico 3. Teare

You have to remember, this is rojo talking to you. Probably one of the guys who posts things like, "12:54 or 13:01, just isn't that good." Ignore him, and those who say stuff like that.

I kind of agree with the OP. Klecker hasn't been himself all year. Kincaid is all over the place, either great or dnf/out of contention. Chelimo no. McGorty no.

Fisher, Young, Nur, and Teare, with Fisher a near lock (to make the team) and the other two spots between those three

No, according to Rojo's logic, you have to be within .13 seconds behind Fisher in a race to be in the mix for a spot on the team because that's how close 3rd place was behind him in 2021. The logic checks out.

Oh you didn't know? Nastradamus apparently makes the team as he is better then all the guys he mentioned, of course.

I like this take. It's similar to what I posted a few months ago. I agree with you that it will be a slow race and that this favors those with the best speed. Based on what I've seen this year, I'd give Fisher, Young, and Teare an edge over Nur, but all four of these guys will be in the mix (especially if it is a slow race). Kincaid could be up there as well, but I share your concerns. Nuguse and/or Hocker could jump in the race just for fun; either would be extremely dangerous in a 13:30ish race.

Some people assume that Fisher will push the pace early on, knowing that he could lose to a speedster in a 13:30 sit-and-kick race. However, this is easier said than done and I have my doubts. The Olympic Trials 5000m is *always* slow.

Odds of making the team:

Teare 50 percent - Can finish top 3 in a fast race and will likely win if it is a slow race. Will he run the 1500 and if so will this have any effect his performance here?

Fisher 50 percent - People are calling him a "lock" which is wrong, wrong, wrong. He needs a fast pace to make the team. However, if he wants a fast pace he will have to lead. And leading is difficult. If he takes off with 1200 - 1600 meters to go, will he be able to dull the kicks of his competitors? Or will he be exhausting himself for the final kick in the last 200-300 meters. Will be doubling back from the 10000, but hasn't had much trouble with this double int he past.

Young 50 percent - Can finish top 3 in a slow race or a fast race. The risk is that he will become stale after a long season at a high level. Will be doubling back from the 10000.

Nur 35 percent - Is coming into good form at the right time but has yet to break 13:04. The trials is only six weeks away. In a 13:20-13:30 race, should be in the mix. Will be running this event on fresh legs.

Kincaid 20 percent - Has an outstanding kick. Ran under 27 minutes at The 10 but has done nothing of note since. Will be doubling back from the 10000. Has had difficulty with the 10/5 double in the past.

Hocker 10 percent - Will be running the 1500. Will he run the 5000 just for fun? If so, he will be a threat in a slow race.

Klecker 6 percent - Has done nothing of note this year. Will be doubling back from the 10000.

Nuguse 3 percent - Unlikely to run.

Chelimo 1 percent - Hasn't broken 13:20 this year.