Hard to tell, but what I can tell you is that you need to work on your aerobic strength. 2:07 / 4:36 indicates good speed, and I think you could even go sub 2:05, but your 3200 is slow for your 16. You should be closer to 10 flat minimum. With a solid summer training block thats oriented around consistent mileage, tempos / threshold work, drills and strides, and not burning yourself out before xc even starts, you can make a big jump. What are your xc PRs andvwhat mileage were you running during summer and mid season for xc?