Today on The Flag Club Pod, Theo Quax and Luis Grijalva (and to some extent Geordie Beamish) said they thought they'd have 6-7 NAU current students/alumni at the Olympics, with Aaron Las Heras (Spain, 7:37/13:16), Nico Young (USA, 12:57/26:52), Abdi Nur (USA, US 5000m champ), Colin Sahlman (USA, 3:33), Brooke Anderson (USA, hammer throw I think?), and presumably Geordie Beamish (NZL, 2024 World 1500i champ, 8:05 steeple, 8:05i 2 mile), Luis Grijalva (GUA(temala), 12:52, Bronze World 2023 5k), and Theo Quax (NZL, 7:39/13:16).
The most surprising part to me was how confident they were in Colin Sahlman making the team. Apparently, Quax and Grijalva both told Colin they thought he'd make the team after his 3:53 mile in January. I can't tell if the interview was recorded before he ran 3:33. Crushing an absolutely stacked field in the rain just off the NCAA record in April is just nuts. Is it nuts enough to beat 1 of Hocker/Kessler/Nuguse though? And any other contenders?
Is Colin's 3:33 in the rain FTW over the last 3 NCAA 1500/mile champs worse than Hocker's 3:50i getting dragged along by Cooper Teare for 1609m? Colin's is a bit worse by time, but he beat a stacked field in the rain. I don't think Colin is on that level right now (he did not win any doubles indoors), but with the rate he's improving, I think he has a legit shot at the team. Where Hocker went in on pretty even footing with 2021 Centro, ie going for the win, I think Colin will go in on a more even footing with 2024 Centro, ie hoping to sneak in for 3rd. I think we'll see more of an 2023 Addy Wiley type season out of him. Miss out on the team, but run a great race. Go run like 1:45 or 3:30 or something over the summer.
Quax and Las Heras are pretty long shots on paper with 13:16 PBs, but they ran it in a slow heat at BU and closed in 2:29. Quax, being from New Zealand, only needs to hit the standard to get to the Olympics, the only other Kiwi having hit it being Geordie Beamish. Spain has 2 13:06 guys and a 12:55 guy. Luckily, Las Heras doesn't have to beat Katir, and Mechaal (13:06 guy) may run the 1500 instead. Certainly possible for both imo.
Apart from that, Grijalva and Beamish are both locks. Nico's probably making it. Abdi was dominant last year, he hasn't looked great so far, but I think he's got a good chance still. Idk much about hammer throw but Anderson made it to Worlds last year, so decent chance at it this year probably. I'd put the number at 6 right now.