Joe Klecker in Trouble?

You're premise isn't necessarily wrong. He's not fully fit right now and of course that's a worry. But its a looooong time until Trials. In the last 14 months he's been sub 12:57 3 times and sub 27:10 twice. I'm not saying he's 100% going to get back to that form but i'll take a guy that's done that over everyone on your list bar Fisher, Kincaid, Nur, and Young. I dont think Nur is a given to run the 10k at USA's so i'd still have Klecker top 4 favorites at the 10k. He just needs to race maybe 2 more fast 10k's to get his points standing up and who knows that may sharpen him up enough to get back into form and get top 3.

He's definitely on the outside looking in. He is not one of our top 3 runners in either distance. but somebody is often gonna be off their game. ill give him 15%

Being fit in March is fine but let’s see how things go in June/July when things really matter.

Dathan gave his and Sage’s inhalers to Geordie and Yared so he has no chance

Realistically, it's probably going to be hard to improve his points between now and the trials due to lack of Cat A or Gold Label races. He could go to Highgate, which is a Cat B race, and try to place well for the bonus points.

His best chance might actually be to go and win NACAC in June. Regional champions get an auto-Q and NACAC is usually a weak field.

He’s just not that good. Wouldn’t say he’s in trouble. This is who he’s always been. People finally aren’t overrating him. I’d love for him to prove me wrong but I doubt that’ll happen

He should move to the 'thon! Isn't he more of a grinder, weak kick kinda runner?

can't find the rules but there was something weird about the area/regional championships. I think they changed it at the last minute before the last worlds, so you can only use that auto-q if no-one else in that federation qualified through time or ranking. it was something like that.

not 100% sure on that. so think the NACACs are no good for the US who will have qualifiers already

I don’t mean this as an insult to either runner, but Joe Klecker is just Ben True with supershoes. Both good runners who can run fast and make teams but they’re both B+ talents not A level talents like Fisher, Rupp, or Young

I find it hard to see him beating Grant, Kincaid and Young at the trials as long as all three are healthy. All three of those guys just beat Joe in a fast 10,000 and have better kicks than Joe. Yes. I know Joe outkicked Grant in 2022 but I don’t see Grant letting that happen again.

This is true, supported by the results, and shouldn't be much of an insult. Klecker is a fantastic runner who has shown he can run world class times but not win in a world class field. 99.9% of runners and former runners would love the opportunity to step into Klecker's shoes.

Klecker is still in great shape to qualify for the Olympics if he can place top 3 at the trials. He's ranked about as high as one could be with his two sub 27:10 times in the world rankings. He is likely to be one of the top one or two ranked non-time/xc qualifiers and this should be enough if he can displace one of Grant/Nico/Woody.

The most interesting Klecker question though is does he marathon debut this fall? How fast does he go. At a minimum I'd expect to see a fast half marathon in the next 12 months.

He didn't even hide the fact earlier this year on a workout on Strava that he indeed was moving up. But as you said, is it as soon as this fall? I'd say that's the question going on for him right now. Do his recent results (that are still very solid I'd argue) show it's worth hanging on to the chance of going to the OG's? Or is it time to take advantage of that fitness and focus on Chicago for instance? Tough call.

Even more troubling is that he's not even ranked high enough right now. His 2nd best performance is only the 28:24 from last year's US championships however, so he would get a better ranking if they run a faster race this summer at the trials. But there are 16 spots already filled by people with the standard, only 27 make the field. And then they take eight people from the cross country rankings before they go back to the 10,000m rankings. Which means if only three more spots get filled from a fast sub 10,000m race somewhere, then he has zero shot at being qualified.

But sub 27 10,000m races are hard to find, and it's likely the people who do run under 27 are from a country that already has three spots. Either way, it's not looking great. He is relying on a fast race at the US championships, and relying on no one else running sub 27 from other countries.

interesting thing if he goes to the roads, OAC will have a new spot for an American 5/10 type guy. Who are some candidates?

Have to assume Nico stays with Smith.

Road to hasn’t been updated. He’ll jump up quite a bit..

I don't think he needs to choose between those options. His odds of making the OG team have definitely dropped thanks to the unexpectedly exceptional results from Young this winter (plus strong results from others), but he's still a strong contender. If Chicago called him on the phone today and offered him $200,000 in guaranteed appearance fees if he skipped the track trials and focused on Chicago, I'm guessing he'd say no, and rightly so. The Olympics are a big deal.

If he doesn't make the team, there are still 15 weeks from the end of trials to Chicago. That's doable, though it doesn't seem like the smartest or most likely choice. I'd spend the fall running a couple of halfs then do a marathon in the spring. Or if he wants to make money, New York gives him that (I assume) plus more time to build up.

Right, I'd missed that.

Being fit in June/July won't mean anything if he doesn't have the standard or the ranking.

There is a reason over the last few years distance athletes have been super focused on ultra fast time trials in Feb/March. This is the new formula to make teams. Joe's chances went way down after the Ten. They aren't zero, but he's definitely on the outside looking in because he wasn't fit now. Even if he wins the trials in 27:20, his chances are still really low.