Am I Alone In Thinking That Grant Fisher Will Win The 2024 Olympic 10000m?

Not that gambling markets are everything, but he won't be the odds on favorite. I'm guessing 3 or 4th favorite at best.

Yes

Don't see him beating the likes of Barega, Kiplimo, Cheptegei, Kejelcha to name a few. Especially not as a favourite, if he medals I don't think it will be a shock. But by no means is he favourite.

I don’t see how anything has changed from his previous non podium finishes. But I could see him getting a Bronze as being within the realm of possibility.

I agree with you. Which will make his win even more Millsesque.

Usually France, Spain, Greace are favorable to North African and African in general.

I wouldn't be surprised if a guy like A. Habbz finish among the Top 3 1500m at Paris 2024.

Given his current trajectory, Nico Young should be in about 25:47 shape when the gun goes off. Grant Fisher is running for silver.

Not completely alone, but mostly so.

We can't know what the future holds, but Nico may already have run all of his PRs and Fisher too. Or maybe one or both get faster. Nico just won the NCAA 3k/5k indoor double and set the College 5k and 10k records. His kick has dramatically improved at the same time. He made a giant leap forward. Expecting another giant leap quickly is probably wishful thinking.

Fisher is the best kicker of US distance runners right now and he just showed that he owns Nico over the last 200m. He can also run a truly world class 5k and 10k race time (Saturday's The Ten was NOT his PR). That makes him a medal contender. In the right type of race, he could win the Olympics. Any medal would be a great result, though.

I don't think he'll be able to sit as comfortably in the pack like he did at The TEN.

Even if the Olympics ends slower than that race, the pace will undulate a lot which may throw off his own pacing.

I'd trust the guys with better time trial PR's and medals than Fisher. Of course he could still win, but he's definitely not in the top 3 favored at this time.

Yes, you are very alone. You are out there in a cornfield in the middle of Kansas all by yourself.

If all the top 10 guys have a brain fart like they 1500 in Rio where Centro won then maybe, if they enter the pain zone then no

Grant Fishers issue is he’s really good at running 55/56 second last laps in both fast and slow races, but faster than that and he gets out positioned and out kicked.

-To go really far back, he was always good at out kicking his high school peers off of being fitter and more talented, but at the Brooks PR 2-mile he closed in 55 and had no answer for Drew’s 54.

-In the NCAA he won an outdoor 5k title but it wasn’t a historically strong year and he only needed a 55 to win

-He consistently lost to Morgan McDonald his senior year in NCAA races when it was slow enough they were closing in 52-54. However, he beat him in the one fast time trial 3k they won

-He lost the Olympic Trials 10k race when Woody closed in 53 to his 54 and the Olympic Trials 5k race to Paul Chelimo with them both running 52

-In 2022 with 26:33 fitness he lost the US champs 10k to Klecker and got his Bowerman teammates to pace him in the 5k to win his only US title

I don’t say any of this to put Grant Fisher down, he’s probably the fastest pure distance runner the US has ever had and has had an incredible career. We’ve never had a 7:25/12:46/26:33 guy before and he’s really revolutionized US distance running.

But in a race where multiple runners are closing under 55 he’s never had the positioning or gears to win. His only chance is a sub 26:50 race where a 55 or 56 would be enough but even then Cheptegei probably will be marginally better. I do think Grant will finish in 3rd to 5th in the Olympic 10k as he’s a strong and consistent runner

No. He can’t out kick Cheptegei or Barega, and guys like Kiplimo/Aregawi who don’t kick as well have better endurance. He could medal, but win is very unlikely.

Would love to see it happen but there is not a chance he can close like Chep or Barega. I definitely think a medal is on the table, just not gold.

Grants looking skinny so by the law of former fatboi Josh Kerr i say he very well could walk away with 10k gold.

I will max bet on him

It wasn't a brain fart. It was Nike pay off,money throwing the race so Centro could win.

Watch in slow motion everyone coming around turn four into the straight away.

Every ones body motion suddenly slows down in the pack. We all know with 125 to go you should be winding it up and.let.it rip to the end. Especially when they jogged 2:05 or something like that for 800.

Then it looks like the pack splits open like the.parting.of the sea. Centro comes straight out of the pack untouched.

Nobody goes with him.

Weirdest and bizarre finishing last 125 meters for the Gold.

I’m not totally in the loop, but isn’t Kincaid a better kicker than Fischer? I remember Kincaid’s kick for his 12:51 and it seemed to me he had the best kick in the world.