Anyone know how Ollie is coming along? I listen to Coffee Club regularly and know he's been running but I never get a sense of where he is on his comeback and I wasn't sure if he was going for the trials, since it doesn't sound like he's been working out with the other OAC guys yet.
I think Hoare is a lock. Even if he is not top two at the trials I think he will most likely be selected by the committee. He's the Commonwealth Games champ and broke the national record just last year.
Good to hear! Definitely want to see him on the team but I was getting a little concerned that he hadn't had a race yet. I guess with the committee selection he has extra time to get fit and as long as he can show he's trending back towards 3:29 he should be on that plane. I do wonder though how much guys like Myers and Spencer can distinguish themselves while OIlie's getting back. I'm also just assuming Stewy is fit and basically a lock to lead the team. Really interesting dynamic for this team!
Think it is pretty easily Hoare, McSweyn, Myers (assuming full health)
Class above the rest of the field. Yes I know some of the others have run faster times than Myers, but get Myers in a London Diamond League race hanging off the back and he will run faster than his PR based on what I have seen from his races.
Hoare seems to be back training so if he can stay healthy have no doubt he will make it.
McSweyn I haven't been impressed with last couple years but he is still a lock.
Ollie still needs to run the time. If he does he'll likely knock out Myers at 3.33, so Myers would then need to beat Spencer's 3.31.81.
OR....and this is my tip, Myers wins Nationals so gets the auto Q. Then Ollie needs to beat 3.31.8 and that might be tricky.
We all love Stewy, but the guy can't kick and it just blows any chance of medalling so I'd rather he go up to 5km and let Ollie, Spencer, Myers take the 1500m.
Hull, Hall, Caldwell a lock? Wouldn't mind Hollingsworth sneaking in there. 3rd fastest (Caldwell) currently 3.59.79. At her current rate of improvement Claudia can run that...
Myers seems like a class above Spencer in terms of talent, but this year I’m not so sure. Both of them got in one DL 1500 last year: Spencer ran 3:31.81 in a 3:30.44 race; Myers ran 3:33.26 in a 3:27.14 race. Yes Myers can be expected to rise to a new level this year but it’s not clear cut between those two.
McSweyn was pretty great in ‘20/‘21 and he started 2024 on a good note with that 3:52.00 win over Myers and Wightman—but it’s hard to guess which direction his season will go. I absolutely don’t think he should opt for the 5k (his interests, not an Aussie fan base’s). He’s a rhythm runner whose ideal distance is probably ~2k, and his best (only conceivable) chance at a medal or even a top 5 finish is returning to 3:29 form and feeling good in a fast 1500 final.
Very likely to be between the “big 4” of Hoare/McSweyn/Myers/Spencer IMO. It’s way too early for me to guess who’ll be the odd man out.
I think Hoare is a lock. Even if he is not top two at the trials I think he will most likely be selected by the committee. He's the Commonwealth Games champ and broke the national record just last year.
My prediction is Hoare, Mcsweyn, Spencer
After talking to Adam Spencer and looking into it, it seems that finishing top 2 at Trials doesn't necessarily do squat unless they like you as they total "absolute discretion." Their selection criteria document is a nightmare.
Off-camera, we asked him about how the Aussie champs will work as far as qualifying for the Olympic team. He said he went to the Athletics Australia website and thought he read that the top two at the trials with the standard are in line for the Olympics. But when he tried to confirm that with the Aussie officials, they told him that he missed a line saying they don’t technically have to send the top two with the standard. So we looked it up ourselves.
Here’s what it says:
The National Federation may, in its absolute discretion, nominate eligible Athletes in Phase 1 Nomination who: (i) have achieved the Qualification Standard by the end of the 2023-24 Australian Domestic Season; (ii) have finished in the top two (2) Australian places at the 2024 Australian Track and Field Championships in their event but are not compelled to nominate both first and second placegetters.
So there you have it. You want to run well but they don’t have to send you even if you win and have the standard.
I think Hoare is a lock. Even if he is not top two at the trials I think he will most likely be selected by the committee. He's the Commonwealth Games champ and broke the national record just last year.
My prediction is Hoare, Mcsweyn, Spencer
After talking to Adam Spencer and looking into it, it seems that finishing top 2 at Trials doesn't necessarily do squat unless they like you as they total "absolute discretion." Their selection criteria document is a nightmare.
Off-camera, we asked him about how the Aussie champs will work as far as qualifying for the Olympic team. He said he went to the Athletics Australia website and thought he read that the top two at the trials with the standard are in line for the Olympics. But when he tried to confirm that with the Aussie officials, they told him that he missed a line saying they don’t technically have to send the top two with the standard. So we looked it up ourselves.
Here’s what it says:
The National Federation may, in its absolute discretion, nominate eligible Athletes in Phase 1 Nomination who: (i) have achieved the Qualification Standard by the end of the 2023-24 Australian Domestic Season; (ii) have finished in the top two (2) Australian places at the 2024 Australian Track and Field Championships in their event but are not compelled to nominate both first and second placegetters.
So there you have it. You want to run well but they don’t have to send you even if you win and have the standard.
So they basically have a bad-faith trials system. I think this is the worst possible of all worlds. Why not just do the Japanese system and send the top 2 but dangle a lofty time (sub-3:30) to unseat the 3rd finisher?
I'm picking Jye Edwards to win the trial and create a real nightmare for the selectors (which is created by the system). And they end up selecting whoever they like and ignore the trials results .