Women's 3k NCAA final - has your prediction changed?

It won't be close. Valby will run away with it assuming she starts the race.

Valby will break the ncaa record, showing zero effects at all from yeaterdays record run, a seemingly impossibility for natural college athletes, then awkwardly say something like "well gee I am just on my arc trainer" while everyone here will rationalize and try to reconcile it with anything remotely credible. Lol.

Perhaps the greatest season ever by a NCAA woman athlete will continue tonight.
Valbymania cannot be suppressed, diminished, deleted, or contained.

Expect More Great Things!!!

I hope she breaks Tuohy's collegiate record. 🐊

Expect Great Things.

Florida needs the points

This is where the casual follower has a huge advantage. They'll recognize who is much the best and expect it to play out that way again. Dedicated fans attempt all of these fanciful adjustments based on distance, etc. I've been guilty of that in thinking somebody might beat Bol to the break indoors.

I hope more of them try to stick with Valby. But I expect the norm.

Ayana got overconfident in the Rio 5000 and pushed too hard during midsection, despite having races in her legs. That's the only thing I could see tripping up Valby.

I love Valby but Vicki Huber in 1988 is still the best season ever. Valby would need to win the 3K today, the 5K outdoors, and make the Olympic team this year to even make it a competition.

NCAA Champion in the indoor mile, indoor 3000m, outdoor 3000m

NCAA Records in indoor mile and outdoor 3000m. The all-dates 3000m record held for 35 years and is still #2 all-time. It was #2 US all-time when it was run, trailing only Mary Decker Slaney.

USATF Champion in the 1500m, runner-up in the Olympic Trials 3000m to Slaney

Seoul Olympic Games - 6th in the 3000m

Valby’s dominance in Cross Country, indoor, and soon outdoors will likely surpass Huber.

Expect Great Things!!

Chamberlain, Markezich and Ramsden want this to be a tactical kicker’s race, and invariably one of them will beat Valby to the pole position. Valby will need to consider whether to regroup and relax a bit before attempting to go around. They might battle her for a while to maintain control, but at the risk of sacrificing their own race.

I doubt Markezich anticipated a sharp miler with 800m wheels sitting on her shoulder at the bell. She paid the price, more a tactical mistake than lack of fitness, imo. Seeing her get outkicked in the final lap probably surprised many (incl myself) because we’ve only witnessed it once before in the past two yrs (McCabe at BU). I think Roe’s hard mooch was a desperate gambit, hoping Valby would eventually wilt, whereas Markezich has looked more comfortable executing this tactic in championship races has the closing speed to finish the job. All of which is to say...I’m not really worried about Markezich and It seems pointless to worry about Valby at this point. If M drops a 2-sec PB in the final and V still smokes her in 8:35, say too good on the day and move on.

Maatoug? We could see a big surprise from her.

I'll make an off pick here and go with Maatoug. She is completely fresh and has run 8:46. Constantly improving, she can also go with a 4:3x, 2:10 close. Lead group will be Valby, Markezic, Maatoug, Roe and Ramsden. Even with tough double Ramsden very fit and still a threat.

Parker will once again unleash her front running dominance to make her competitors feel the unworthiness to be on the same oval as her especially as she increases the pace with each successive lap.

Expect More Great Things!!!

That’s a bit over the top. I don’t think Valby is like that toward her competitors.

This 3k is going to be a bigger test than what she faced yesterday. Markezich will be coming off a faster paced race, which will make the tempo feel easier, while Valby will be running at a faster pace than yesterday. She might face problems if she expends too much energy early, but if it is too slow for too long, that will play into the hands of the long kickers, including Maatoug.

People getting upset about cross training will never not be funny to me.

I’m going to make a 100% absolute pick: we’ll know who the winner of the 3000 is the very second that the first runner crosses the finish line.

So just wait, and when the time comes that the runners toe the line, simply ENJOY the event.

the metaphor isn’t perfect, but I’d take a tired Jakob over a fresher Hocker over 3000 any day

What was Valby’s last 3000m yesterday? 8:51?

I kind of disagree. I picked Markezich to win, but that was Markezich's slowest anchor leg of the season so not a great sign. She has run 4:22 and 4:26, this was 4:30 in the final and they lost. She got beat by 3 seconds... looked tired to me.

Roe was disappointed with second! I got the strong sense she thinks she could run quite a bit faster, but she will be tired today given how much she blew up the last few laps.

Ramsden looked a little tired to me as well, that prelim was close. I don't expect much from her in the 3k today with the double. If she was fresh, different story.

Maatoug could surprise, but she is also hit and miss. I am excited to see what she can do here though. She certainly has a lot of potential and great speed.

Markezich ran the 3rd fastest anchor. She is a strength based miler. She did not have the wheels of some of the others in that DMR anchor. She tried to run it out of them - but it's really hard to do that in a mile. She's done that in a 3k, but she usually does not lead. She paid the price for making up 2 seconds, then taking the lead and trying to make the last leg honest. She got outkicked. I don't see how anyone but Valby or Markezich wins the 3k. Valby will take it out, as usual, and let's see who goes with her besides Markezich. Still say if Markezich tucks in and can follow Valby's pace, she has a shot to win over the last lap.