Am I stuck at a 2:59 marathon if I’m unable to increase volume?

Its more important to be consistent than it is to hit a certain mileage each week. You can improve without upping your mileage is what I'm trying to say.

Wow, 2:59 in the first marathon with that short amount of time running is pretty impressive.
The false thinking a lot of runners have in the beginning (including myself) have is that there is always a continuous trajectory in performance. Unfortunately it doesn't work that way.

I would recommend that you just keep doing what you are doing and just wait for an unexpected good performance. Marathon running is hard, once you are close to your personal limit, failure is just one or two minutes away.

Try to plan a couple of shorter races before your next marathon and run them as fast as possible. And pace yourself for the next marathon with your latest HM time.

Just be patient with yourself. Good luck!

I think you would benefit from the increased mileage but modify your weekly structure, centered around 1 quality workout mid-week and a weekend long run. The other days you can log easy mileage. 2 quality workouts and a long run every week in marathon training is very tough to maintain for anyone once mileage creeps up.

So maybe a weekly schedule this:

Day 1: 7-8 miles easy

Day 2: 7-8 miles easy

Day 3: Quality workout (aerobic power focus)

Day 4: 7-8 miles easy

Day 5: 10-12 miles easy (maybe add in a few 20-30 second pick-ups)

Day 6: 7-8 miles easy

Day 7: Long Run workout (endurance focus)

Another option if you have the flexibility in work/life schedule would be to shift to a 9 day schedule. So 2 quality workouts and a long run every days (i.e. workout followed by 2 easy/recovery days).

What's your current half marathon OP & what did your 60mpw look like? If you faded off of a 1:25-flat front half, there's definitely more time on the table. Maybe you just overestimated it a little & had mid-2:50s in you that day. Maybe you just didn't fuel it right.

I think you can break into the 2:40s eventually with consistent 50-60mpw, with the occasional 70ish weeks thrown in. Usually takes 70+ for someone who doesn't run a very fast 5k pretty soon into their running to get into the 2:30s.

Hard to say more without knowing how you train. The mileage is fine. I have no idea if you trained like a marathoner or 5k runner. I have no idea if your training indicated sub-2:50 or a little slower.

Thank you for the response. Current PRs:

5K - 17:58, 10K - 37:24, and HM - 1:23:55

The 3 months or so leading into the marathons look something like:

M - off

T - 8 easy

W - Intervals - 12 x 400 at 5k/10k effort, then following week 6 x 800, then following week 5 x 1k, and then I’d go back to the 400s and repeat progression (attempting faster splits).

T - 8 easy

F - Threshold - usually a continuous 4 mile run @6:10ish pace. 8-10 miles total with wu and cd.

S - 8 easy

S - long run of 16 to upwards of 22 miles and alternating weekly between easy paced runs and then ones with MP efforts built in like 5 miles easy, 10 at MP effort, 5 easy, etc.

usually amounted to around 60 miles or so per week.

Thank you all for these responses, very helpful!

The Race Equivalency calculator gives me a 2:54:58 for your Half Marathon time.

Maybe you were just a tad to fast in your last Marathon.

Why does anyone train if you think there’s some secret to make you faster without training?

What’s up with these threads? There’s no secret. You train and get faster or you don’t.

Awesome progression! To go from sub-60 10k (9:30-ish miles?) to sub-3:00 in the 26.2 a few years later is solid. You'll break 2:50 soon enough.

you tried to go from a 2:59 to a 2:48 (based on your 1:24 first half) which was too much of a jump. if you had backed off the pace a little you probably would have PBd by 5 minutes or so.

Randy, great result in your first marathon! Seems the second race was too fast for the first half, but it’s a learning experience and there are those times, succeed or fail, you want to test your limit. No shame in that!

I ran very similar to you within my first 1-2 years of running on a similar training structure. I followed the typical weekly template of 1 session of 3 miles of intervals, 1 session of 6 miles of tempo, 1 long run in the 16-20 mile range, and 8 miles easy 3-4 times per week.

I switched to a template outlined by MPR after that. Basically 1 tempo session where I did 6-8 miles, 1 medium long run of 10-14, and 1 long run of 18-22 with 6-12 miles of tempo mixed in. My marathon time did improve slightly off that (low/mid 2:50’s), but nothing that my shorter distance PR’s didn’t indicate I was capable of.

Following that structure, I started using 2 tempo sessions of 6-8 miles and 1 long run with 6-12 miles of tempo which lead to my PR, but again, in line with my shorter performances.

I pretty much alternate between the last two templates now for my half and marathon build ups. My mileage is generally 60-70 per week but for a few years using the latter template where I was 80+, though I don’t feel the extra mileage from doubles really helped. The improvements were so marginal that I’d have gladly not run those extra 10-20 miles per week if I’d known the outcome haha

Point being, there are plenty of ways to set up the week and experiment to both keep it mentally stimulating but also give your body something different. Where that structure takes you performance wise though, you won’t know until you implement and race. As others have said, consistency is likely the primary contributor to reaching your potential. Best of luck in April!

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You have destroyed the only two verifiable marathoners you coached. Go away.

Not sure if you mentioned this somewhere but what pace, or pace range, do you typically fall into on your easy days?

Cross-train to build endurance and strength. Rowing and cycling are two very good options. Also, you might have to accept that you just aren't capable of 2:50. Not everybody gets there. There are high-volume runners who never crack 3. Fwiw, sub-3 likely puts you in the top 1% in most countries. It's an accomplishment on its own.

If running stops being fun, see how little you can do to maintain your current fitness and pick up another worthwhile hobby: learning a new language, playing a musical instrument, reading the classics (or whatever you like) are all worthwhile suggestions.

Way to go on on sub-three! If you keep running, in 15 years, you'll be healthier than most people 30 years younger than you.

It was a different world back in the 80s, most of the hs kids in my league would either run a local half or full marathon for fun in November after xc season. This was after xc training of no more than 40-50 miles per week.

The only thing we added in between was a long run up to 15 miles. Being fast and with this limited training still produced times of 2:45 -3:00. (and sore legs)

So I would assume you could improve your marathon time with current mileage, by focusing on getting faster at mile and 5k. The faster you are at 5k, the easier marathon pace feels.

It's also critical when running a marathon 'undertrained' to plan for the last 10k being a bear. Run first half conservative at goal pace, then manage second half by feel. If you go out too hard, last 10k can be a full bonk. If you plan right, occasionally you even get an adrenaline fueled decent finish. Proper early hydration and fueling also help in this.

Super helpful.

As far as your PBs go, your 5k/10k align well (10k is a touch stronger which is good) but half is off by ~90s. Going out at 1:25-flat with a 1:24-flat PB did not set you up well for your race. Your PBs indidcate ~2:55-flat with good endurance/good training.

So that brings us to training. I would say that you're mostly training like a 5k runner Monday-Saturday. I think the long runs look great. The quality workouts that you're doing during the week, however, just aren't specific to the marathon. If the marathon is your focus, scrap the VO2 stuff (fine early build or pre build) & the short threshold stuff. What I would do is one threshold workout on Tuesday or Wednesday with better volume (start with 8k-10k, build to 12k-15k) (ex: 10 x 1k @ T w./ 60s rest >>> 12-15 x 1k @ T w./ 60s rest). Then do an easy medium long run the next day (start at 10-11 miles, build to 13-14). That's the volume needed to get close to your marathon potential. But you just overestimated fitness a little in your race. If you want to run sub-2:50 then you are going to have to get faster so it's up to you on how you want to train. The sample week you have outlined, with a shorter long run, would be great for getting better at 5k/10k. So stick with that and race some 5k/10k stuff this spring/summer. Improve there and then adjust to a plan like the one above for the fall with your new target marathon goal in mind based off of where you've gotten your fitness to.

^^^^

The difference between my best marathon and worst was the mid-week med-long run. I also did a lot of T-pace volume as suggested here ... as well as some of the Daniels TLT style workouts.

OP, your sample size is 2 (!) with one going well and one below expectations. Don't give up on the idea of improvement because of one race, especially a marathon. You are still a new runner, and just building a long, consistent running history will help with performance at all distances.

A variation of your question here turns up frequently here and when I see it I always mention a friend of mine who ran well under 2:20 on 40-50 mpw. He did a weekly 20, a couple of 10s that got to something around race pace and sometimes another 10 or a really fast 5. I sometimes mention a Scotsman called Alastair Wood who did 2:13 in the Sixties and also won the London to Brighton race, 53 miles once and afterward said he'd run more miles that day than he normally did in a week. He also said he really just trained three times a week and just ran 2 or 3 miles on the other days. Then I usually mention my old college roommate who in his entire life had one week when he ran more than 45 miles and ran 2:40 and some seconds.

You're probably not getting to 2:13 on the miles you're doing but you're probably not getting there on twice the miles you're doing either. But there is no reason to think you can't get well under 2:59. Honestly, you'll likely get faster if you just keep doing what you're doing and pace yourself well in upcoming marathons. Most of us make substantial improvements from our first to second marathon.

I'm not going to get into what I'd have you do for training here. I'm sure plenty of others will and there's no more reason to listen to me than to anyone else. But the last comment I'll make, at least in this post, is that all of the guys I've mentioned were DISTANCE RUNNERS, not just marathoners, which is to say that they raced seriously at shorter distances. I think a big shortcoming for many, probably most, of today's later in life marathoners is that they aren't real interested in what they can run for anything shorter than a half marathon.

If you're planning to run another marathon next April use from now until maybe March to find shorter races, maybe 10 miles and down, down even as far as 3 km if there are indoor meets nearby, and work seriously on improving your performances. You don't need to change your training from what you do for the marathon other than on race days and maybe on the day before.